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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm John

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The tenth tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression has an intensity of 30kts. 10E is expected to head on a typical west-northwest or northwest track over the next few days. The depression is under moderate shear, and is only expected to strengthen modestly over the next day or so before reaching cooler water. If shear eases, then 10E could strengthen a little more than the 40kt peak the NHC are forecasting.

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Looks like it may track West and away form land, maybe soem residual winds affecting coastal areas?

201210E_5F.png

Tropical Depression 10E: Probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

201210E.png

12.track.current.png

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The depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm John this morning, with sustained winds of 35kts. However, this may be John's peak as shear has stripped the LLC of convection this afternoon, and John is set to remain in a highly sheared environment. Additionally, waters are getting progressively cooler along track. John is expected to weaken to a tropical depression and lose tropical cyclone status soon after.

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201210E.png

201210E_5F.png

Tropical Depression JOHN: Probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

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John is on the verge of becoming a remnant low. Intensity has fallen to 30kts and John's LLC remains entirely exposed. If convection doesn't return, then John will be declared a remnant low this afternoon.

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