There have been bigger, and there have been stronger... but it's also going to be a lovely summer storm in the UK, so I figured it's worthy of its own thread.
By Nick F
Storm & Convective Forecast
Issued 2018-08-06 21:33:50
Valid: 07/08/2018 00z to 08/08/2018 00z
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 7TH AUGUST 2018
North Atlantic upper trough will begin to amplify S and SE across the far west of Britain during Tuesday, with a strengthening upper flow across the UK – as SWly jet stream shifts S and E across the UK. Ahead of the jet streak, a weak surface cold front will progress slowly east, to lie North York Moors - West Sussex by 00z Weds. A very hot, humid and increasingly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front across SE England and East Anglia is forecast to destabilise and produce thunderstorms in the evening here before the front clears through and introduces cooler and more stable air.
… SE ENGLAND and E ANGLIA …
Surface-based CAPE will build up through the day due to surface heating of humid plume in conjunction with lapse rates steepening in association with advection north of EML (elevated mixed layer) aloft. However, this surface instability is likely to remain capped. However, a shortwave in the strengthening flow aloft will move NE from Bay of Biscay area in the morning crossing NW France in the afternoon. The increased lift by the shortwave along NW edge of hot and humid plume over France and SE UK combined with increasing mid-level instability as dry air intrusion punches NE overlapping plume, is forecast by many models to break out thunderstorms across Brittany and Normandy by early evening, before spreading / expanding NE across SE England then East Anglia through the evening.
Thunderstorms are likely to be elevated, though 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear forecast will allow storm organisation into clusters, perhaps even an MCS passing over parts of Kent and eastern E Anglia, so there is potential for strong storms that may bring locally intense downpours leading to flash-flooding, isolated hail, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. These storms should clear away NE into the North Sea after midnight.
Issued by: Nick Finnis
By ARW WeatherMan
I realised we talk a lot about the weather generally, on here and across the UK but one thing that is rarely mentioned is the UV index so my first question is; Do you guys know whether we have ever recorded a UV index of 9 here in the UK?
I see many places as far north as Nottingham will be hitting 8 next week provided there are clear skies and many times I've known the UV to hit 8 in London, most years we get atleast 7-10 days I'd say but surely somewhere on the south coast will have hit 9 on a few accasions.
I also regularly check www.temis.nl which gives a clear sky UV index forecast which over many years I've come to realise is generally is out by 1UV. They are forecasting 7.5 in London next week which if I'm right would mean 8.5 and surely the south coast could hit 9 by that reasoning? Any thoughts or facts would be interesting to hear. Thankyou
A new thread for all things convective around the UK going into the summer of 2018.
Old thread here:
Convective weather relating to Europe should go into here:
A chance of a few thunderstorms this week with central and southern parts of England and Wales looking most at risk. Although Monday is now moving into the reliable timeframe it is still too early to discuss specifics for the week as a whole. It is likely though that this week will provide some thundery showers or storms for a few of us. An easterly flow will probably favour more western areas for home grown storms, but elevated storms from the continent could also affect southern and south-eastern areas at times.
I own a Hama EWS-180 temperature meter which has a wireless sensor to measure the outside temperature. The only place I could place it was outside on the grass and today someone mowned the lawn and along with it the sensor :/ I've searched but couldn't find a replacement sensor to buy, so do you have any ideas where can I buy one?
Recently Browsing 0 members
No registered users viewing this page.