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The watcher

Ireland Regional Discussion

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Resume discussion for the newly started Autumn season.

Well, summer has flown through and Autumn shades are imminent. Well......so it was about 18 hours ago.

What does everyone think about the upcoming Autumn for Ireland. Wet and Windy, a Late Summer, or just a mix mash?

Personally I think it will be drier than Summer as a whole and with above average sunshine. A few deep depressions in the mix, mainly in October. November likely to be the driest Month.

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I'll go with a dry Autumn too, plenty of high pressure about leading to frosty mornings and warm/mild days!

I think one to two ex-hurricanes might make it our way too though.

It's all going to be a tough call for any forecaster though. With uncertainty about how ENSO will develop, continued below normal solar activity, the huge changes in the Arctic and the continued -ve PDO, as well as the usual complications. I certainly don't envy the work GP will have to get through over the coming months!

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We've had a great start to this dry spell and it looks like continuing for the next 6-7 days at least. I haven't looked at todays models yet but yesterday showed Ireland as a whole just about missing any close Atlantic weather. May be a little cloud at times and fresh, but dry none the least. Bodes well for the Northern Ireland Airshow this weekend, which I very much look forward to.

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I hope autumn feels alot more seasonal then last autumn which for an autumn lover like me was a disaster. I reckon a mixed autumn is what we will have this yr and temp wise around normal overall. So in other words i would go for a traditional one for us this yr.

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Alot more cloud around today, weather looks like changing on Sunday. Still tommorow to enjoy and some convective and Autumnal weather could be just around the corner.

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Alright my peoplegood.gif

I expect a fairly standard Autumn for us wet,dry, warm, cool, cold, calm , windybiggrin.png

Another disaster of a summer for my veg - the potatoes and carrots could have been a lot bettersad.png

That said the leeks and the peas loved it!

Expecting our first decent storm in October

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Alright Pomeroy, welcome back to the madhouse.

Yep, the usual mix is looking likely.

No decent wind events showing on the models yet, but I'm sure we will see some soon.

Models show the Mid Atlantic High/Greenie High scenario we loved so much from April - July, stopping any of those stronger ex hurricanes from moving too far East towards us and instead giving us a reasonably unsettled and cool NW regime. That's still a week or so away yet, so subject to considerable change.

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Only the odd paper one laugh.png , didn't apply for a flying roll. Have to go back and try my secondary fitness again end of month.

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Hows it going folks. Have been lurking around for the past couple of weeks. Looking forward to another roller coaster of a winter on our little Irish forum this year! Lets hope we get a bit more excitement this year as last year was a complete disaster. All the summer hibernators are slowly wakening and i'm sure Net Weather will come alive in the next month or 2!drinks.gif

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It actually feels quite chilly out, so first Autumn like day, wonderful!

Next up, is to have the first day where your cheeks sting from a bitingly cold northeasterlycold.gif

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It actually feels quite chilly out, so first Autumn like day, wonderful!

Next up, is to have the first day where your cheeks sting from a bitingly cold northeasterlycold.gif

Hah, meanwhile, we will warm up next weekend into next week as an anticyclonic regime returns...

Was browsing through the CFS charts for December yesterday morning... All I can say is BRRRRR. Pity they just don't verify all that often!

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First proper autumn day today. Some showers here. Temp up and down a bit. Max so far 14.0c currently 11.8c after recent shower. Last nights min 7.2c the coldest temp in a number of months.

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Alright folks - a couple of decent hail showers here today.

I wouldn't mind a nice settled warm sunny spell - before the most snowiest bitter winter EVER sets inrofl.gif

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Just thinking there hasn't been an Autumn in the last few years where there was not at least one month with a very positive rainfall anomaly, like 100% more in a October or November. Could be wrong on that point but there was a few years showing that.

This year the sea temp is a little cooler than normal which might dampen down the convective post cold front showers, but that's only a guess and most likely insignificant.

I don’t know how to call it for Autumn or winter, but I assume the crazy melt in the Arctic has to have some affect at some time if not already doing so. Just don't expect snow and allow yourself to be surprised when it happens

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You can't deny that that we all get very excited with the prospect of winter coming and it seems that as each year goes by the hype starts earlier every year! If you think about it, in reality we are chasing snow & cold for 7/8 months of the year. Netweather has already coming alive with people chatting about the incoming winter. As i say every year lets just wait and see what happens and i just hope that we don't build ourselves up for let down after let down. Just out of curiosity when did the models start showing signs of cold and snowy weather back in 2010? Was it building for a while or did it just come out of nowhere?

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7 to 10 days out at best same as ever. I can recall discussing possible snow or cold a few days before Argentina/Ireland friendly and advisinga friend to wear warm clothes, but didn't expect snow even though I was obviously watching the models. Well the night before it snowed, 1st time I saw widespread snow end November. But let me tell you on the warm clothes bit, not warm enough. The temp was -6 c in the stadium. So at the time a few days before hand I had no idea of how cold it would get. Apart from 1 week of relative "mild" it stayed record breaking through to the new year period.

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Start of November 2010 we started to see signs of something colder for the last week of the month albeit from GP and the like using teleconnections, but in the models it was 10 days out. The cooler SST's could be associated with the large Arctic Ice melt this summer and I would expect these will reflect (not really on convective potential) but on allowing slightly less modification from Polar Maritime incursions and a slightly stronger bite. I don't think the consequences will be large, but maybe BFTV can elaborate on how cooler SST's can effect the climate as he has alot more knowledge in that area.

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Start of November 2010 we started to see signs of something colder for the last week of the month albeit from GP and the like using teleconnections, but in the models it was 10 days out. The cooler SST's could be associated with the large Arctic Ice melt this summer and I would expect these will reflect (not really on convective potential) but on allowing slightly less modification from Polar Maritime incursions and a slightly stronger bite. I don't think the consequences will be large, but maybe BFTV can elaborate on how cooler SST's can effect the climate as he has alot more knowledge in that area.

I am not sure the locally cooler sea temps is related to the arctic sea temp as that sea temp is warmer up there now. I think our cooler sea temp is related to less solar radiation locally and also at the surface, but might be wrong. Sea temp is measured at various stratifications. What I would say is that cooler temps reduce modification post th fronts passing over, the heavy showers that follow will get less energy. If anything if it's snow we are after the warmer the sea the heavier the potential, but it's all relative and very subtle.

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Completely forgot about Summer not having alot of warmth and sunshine, so yes, that would explain the cooler SST's good.gif .

I do remember a discussion once about warmer SST's aiding High Pressure development in that region, but wasn't sure if this is a true sentiment or not. Does that hold any weight or is it just myth?

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Hi everyone. Well its a nice end to the day here in Cork although it is markedly cooler than it has been, down to 15 or 16ºC today. Yesterday was even cooler, down to about 13ºC. It has remained quite dry though, surprisingly, so long may that last. There might be a warm up this weekend, but its set to be short-lived I think.

As for the Autumn I think we may see a westerly pattern for the rest of the month and into October but I think then we may see some sort of blocking pattern into the middle to end of October, with a milder regime returning for the early part of November and then some cooler north-westerlies nearer the end of November. But this is mostly a hopecast so don't take my word for it. wink.png

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