Hurricane Isaac

[mezzacyclone]

66kn (75.9mph) FLW (30 sec avg.) a short while ago (lat16.05 lon69.28 approx 130miles due S of santo domingo DR) not quite `Cane status at Surface (est 66mph) but definitely getting their.

[Somerset Squall]

Isaac has strengthened to a 50kt intensity, and pressure is down to 1000mb. The storm is finally looking better organised in satellite imagery, with a more defined LLC and a strong band of convection wrapping around the south and east sides of the centre.

[knocker]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

CORRECTED SPELLING IN HEADLINE

...ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.3N 70.8W

ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND VILLA

CLARA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG

ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

* HAITI

* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA

CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE

CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG

ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG

CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS

* ANDROS ISLAND

* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...

SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

ISAAC. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA

KEYS LATER TODAY AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN

FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. ISAAC IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION EXPECTED TROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...

PASS NEAR OR OVER HAITI TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN AND

CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER

REACHES THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. TOTAL

RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6

INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL

RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS

POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY

AND TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY

OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER

EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR

SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN

CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1

TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE

TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE

ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE

VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND

CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL

CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM

YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[mezzacyclone]

70kn (80.5mph) FLW peak 10 sec. avg. lat17.10 lon70.38. 70 miles ENE from NHC`s last LLC plot @ 16.8 71.4

994.8mb ESP reading lon16.783 lat71.383

Edited August 24, 2012 by mezzacyclone

[Iceberg]

Yep 70kt flight winds just now and pressure of 995mb so he is definitely getting their maybe 55kts now.

Nw direction, convective wrap around and stacking evident.

Short passage of land, which probably won't effect hm too much

[Coast]

On track to tickle Southern Florida?

Tropical Storm ISAAC: Storm-centered zoom at 117 hours lead

[knocker]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...ISAAC EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF HAITI...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS

ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.0N 73.3W

ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING

THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH

SOUTHWARD...AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM

GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR

ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS

* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD

* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* HAITI

* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD

* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

* HAITI

* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA

CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE

CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

* THE BAHAMAS

* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD

* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS

* JAMAICA

* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT

OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. ISAAC IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A

WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN

CUBA TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND

APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER ISAAC MOVES OVER EASTERN

CUBA LATER TODAY...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON

SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF

FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN

BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND

OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND

TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH

NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR

SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON

SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL

STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL

CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING

WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF

THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...3 TO 5 FT

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT

HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT

THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF

ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING

OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT

DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE

COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO

RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN

AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA

KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM

YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Somerset Squall]

Isaac peaked at 60kts prior to landfall in southwestern Haiti, and was very near hurricane strength as an eye had begun to form. Isaac has not spent long over land and is still a 50kt tropical storm as it emerges over water. The stronger Isaac has felt the weakness in the ridge more and has moved more to the north over the last 12hrs. This has shifted the forecast track a little to the east. The current track shows interaction with Cuba but less than the more westerly forecast track of yesterday. This means that Isaac could get stronger than forecast in the Gulf. Things should become clearer as Isaac passes Cuba. Western Florida look next to be affected by high winds and heavy rains as Isaac passes very near by.

[summer blizzard]

Issac after Cuba now looks very interesting as the models are ever slower and stronger with a full 2 days in the GOM, a good 20mb pressure drop and a stall inland.

[Sainsbo]

Models now suggesting Isaac may become a Category 2 Hurricane before hitting Florida.

[knocker]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR EASTERN CUBA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR

PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.1N 74.6W

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NASSAU

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST

NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH

FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS

* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN

REEF

* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* HAITI

* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF

* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

* HAITI

* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA

CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE

CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

* THE BAHAMAS

* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN

REEF

* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS

* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT

OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. ISAAC IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER

EASTERN CUBA TODAY...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE

NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF

FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN

BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND

OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND

TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH

NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR

SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON

SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL

STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA

BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL

CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING

WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF

THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT

HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT

THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF

ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING

OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT

DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE

COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT

HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND

CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR

LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[mezzacyclone]

NHC last fix at 20.8 75.3 ties in well with sat imagery showing the LLC thereabouts, heading NW and recon shows the centre right over Bahia Rio Seco coastline (Holguin province SE Cuba) maybe slightly inland no more than 30 miles 21.10 75.67 as we speak.

Looks like Isaac has a run 300° NW just off the Cuban coast and between the Bahamas running over the Fl keys & with everything going for re-strengthening then the projections for entry just East of the Mississippi Alabama shelf somewhere between Dauphin Island and Pensacola (MS, AL & FL border region) are seriously worrying and further raising concerns for the surge into Chandeleur sound, Lake Borgne & the levys of N.O?

[mezzacyclone]

This is serious from the "in depth" discussion adv 19:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING

A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE

NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND

SHOULD ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD

BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

Fair to say the inner core`s going to be a given so the upper conditions could well be the only factor in deciding if Isaac turns out to be a monster?

[Chris D]

Take a look at the latest few satellite images; they are quite extraordinary. You can see the eye as clear as on a Cat 3 hurricane but yet there is little or no convection going on, as it comes off the coast of Cuba. Most remarkable thing Ive ever seen!

http://www.ssd.noaa....9L_floater.html

Im concerned about this one when it enters the Gulf, especially looking at the NHC's latest thoughts on it.

Edited August 25, 2012 by Chris D

[AderynCoch]

Though the centre of circulation has moved offshore from Cuba, it's still too close to the island for it to really get organised and become a hurricane. Passage through the Floriday Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico is looking very likely, and this is when Isaac should start to strengthen significantly as it moves clear of land and into a favourable environment for intensification.

[AderynCoch]

Having said that, there's definitely some convection going down at the moment:

[Iceberg]

isaac seems to be doing very well considering his location.

I am just waiting for the 00Z models to fully come out (8.00am ish) but there has been a shift in the path and florida is looking alot less likely now, but the news on change and intensity is not good.... waiting for them all to come out before i comment

[Radiating Dendrite]

Flying to New York on Friday, with a cruise down to the Bahamas starting Saturday. Will this have any impact or should it be over by then?

[Iceberg]

So we have them all in now, recon have also just entered the centre of isaac, but anoyingly the pressure reading stopped working...darn it...

so it's really just the models until we get the vortex data and manaul readings.

In no particular order we have:

GFDL, takes it very close to florida and quick reaching the gom shore in Alabama at roughly T60 far quicker than anything else, intensity at landfall 55kts however for me initialisation is poor.

HWRF takes a CAT 4 hit into LA, very close to Katrina, takes things slowly as well as it approaches the shore line and allows for more time in the hot gom hence more strengthening.

GFS has shifted west and again has an LA New Orleans hit with a Major hurricane, again very slow moving as it keeps a stronger ridge in place than before.

ECM has shifted west but not as far west as gfs with an Alabama hit again as a major, it has a slightly weaker ridge than the gfs, much stronger than the previous ecm run.

CMC pretty identical to GFS.

So in conclusion, they have shifted west for landfall with a slower track which by and large means more strenghtening. A landfall somewhere Alabama/LA seems most likely as a major hurricane and very slow moving.

New Orleans will again have to watch this one very closely IMHO.

Serious strengththening should hold off for 24hrs until its fully cleared Cuba.

[Iceberg]

Flying to New York on Friday, with a cruise down to the Bahamas starting Saturday. Will this have any impact or should it be over by then?

shouldnt have any impact at all.

However the models do show two further systems over the next 2 weeks which might, particularly the 2nd of these two weeks, however that system doesn't leave Africa and get to CV until tuesday so hasnt even formed yet and is highly uncertain.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Thanks Iceberg.

[Iceberg]

Doppler Loop from key west will be useful over the next 24 hrs.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

drop readings of 996mb looks to be the best we have so far from recon with ft winds of 66kts (rain contaminated). However given this is indicates that isaac has retained a pretty decent structure considering it has spent so close to land for the last 24 hrs or so.,

[Iceberg]

Thanks Iceberg.

This is the one i would be concerned/interested/over joyed about if i were you, its on both ecm and gfs and would be well worth keeping an eye on it.

[Iceberg]

nhc have scrambled another low level flight which has left base, so we now have two low level flights and one high level flight.

My assumption is that the new flight has been called as the first planned flight has had problems getting accurate pressure readings.

Latest drop indicates pressure of 995mb however these drops are based on a guess of where the centre is rather than judging where it is according to flight pressure data. However it should be fairly accurate.

[summer blizzard]

This is pretty juicy, GFS0z had a borderline category 2 while the Euro was almost a category 4.

Given that this is already deepening i would be at the high end.