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A Winter's Tale

September CET Watch

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To think that after the very mild first few days we will have yet another month 1C or more below the 1981-2010 average.

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Looks as if my 13.6C has slipped away...

Oh well, at least we may be in with a chance of this triple whammy.

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Looks like 90% went above me so i should do well this month..

13.5 ... Snowstorm1, summer blizzard ...... --- average 1701-1800, 1901-2000 ---

13.4 ...

13.3 ... --- average 1659-2011 ---

13.2 ... Isolated Frost

13.1 ... Wales 123098 ...... --- average 1801-1900 ---

13.0 ...

12.9 ... Harve

12.8 ... Ferryhill Weather, cheeky_monkey

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Hadley is 13.4C to the 26th:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 12.3C.

It seemed extremely unlikely not too long back, but we could actually come in under 13C after adjustments. That would mean April, June, July and September would all have been at least 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

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Could it be the triple whammy? April, June and September, all return at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average in the same year?

If December does the same each season will have a representative month 0.5C below average. Out of interest, assuming September comes in at exactly 0.5C below the 61-90 average, what does the average CET for the remaining 3 months of the year have to be in order for 2012 to go under the annual 81-2010 average?

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If December does the same each season will have a representative month 0.5C below average. Out of interest, assuming September comes in at exactly 0.5C below the 61-90 average, what does the average CET for the remaining 3 months of the year have to be in order for 2012 to go under the annual 81-2010 average?

If September finishes on 13.0C, then October , November and December can all afford to be 0.7C above the 1981-2010 average themselves (11.4C, 7.8C and 5.3C) and we'd still finish on 9.96C (1981-2010 mean is 9.97C).

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Thanks Reef! Looks like we should be in for a below average year based on the most recent 30 year averages, but how about for the 61-90 and 71-00 averages? wink.png

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Guest pjl20101

Can only attribute our cool September to lowish solar activity, the MEI in weak el niño, the -QBO still in place although losing its grip and the PDO still cold although it may not be as cold as it was earlier in the year. The finishing number will probably be between 12.7 and 13.2 so definitely the coolest since 1994 and wettest since 1981. My 15.4 guess was well too high, but it goes to show everything is a science, about trial and error really.

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We will end up at 13.1 before adjustments; after adjustments will be 12.8oC.

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Looks like the coolest April to September CET period since at least 1988 maybe 1986

Yep, that's global warming for you...... :rofl:

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Climate UK (Manley) monthly stats:-

CET: (Sep 1-30): 13.07°C (-1.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Sep 1-30): 88.4mm (107 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Sep 1-30): 170.8hr (118 per cent)

© Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

Hadley's final adjusted CET doesn't usually stray too far from this.

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Where does the 2nd half of September rank in terms of the coldest in the last 100 years? One of the models was saying it may end up falling in the top 5 coldest, it would be interesting to see if this came off.

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I was researching an answer to the above, and in the process found that a final value has been posted for September, namely 13.0 C

Now, editing the post I just made ...

The coldest second half of September (16th to 30th) in the daily series from 1772 is

9.6 in 1840

Since 1901, the coldest is

10.0 in both 1919 and 1952 ... it was 10.4 in 1974.

Since 1980, the coldest is

11.3 in 1993 (11.4 in 1986) and this 11.3 recent mark was just tied in 2012. (!)

The warmest by the way was 16.5 in 2006.

If you wanted to compare just the last ten days of the month (21-30 Sep) then the coldest was 9.1 in 1786 and more recently it was 9.4 in 1974. This past month the final ten days managed a toasty 10.8 C.

So there you have it. Hmm, what happened in 1987, anything interesting?

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Ended up dead on 13oC, -0.6oC below average....

Paul

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I was researching an answer to the above, and in the process found that a final value has been posted for September, namely 13.0 C

Now, editing the post I just made ...

The coldest second half of September (16th to 30th) in the daily series from 1772 is

9.6 in 1840

Since 1901, the coldest is

10.0 in both 1919 and 1952 ... it was 10.4 in 1974.

Since 1980, the coldest is

11.3 in 1993 (11.4 in 1986) and this 11.3 recent mark was just tied in 2012. (!)

The warmest by the way was 16.5 in 2006.

If you wanted to compare just the last ten days of the month (21-30 Sep) then the coldest was 9.1 in 1786 and more recently it was 9.4 in 1974. This past month the final ten days managed a toasty 10.8 C.

So there you have it. Hmm, what happened in 1987, anything interesting?

Very interesting, thanks.

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So it's the triple whammy. The three months, April, June and September, that have for so long gone without being at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average, all occurred within the same year. The first time since 1918. The coolest April to September period since 1986

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So it's the triple whammy. The three months, April, June and September, that have for so long gone without being at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average, all occurred within the same year. The first time since 1918. The coolest April to September period since 1986

At last hooray. We have finally achieved a cooler than average September, which for so long was a month that was persistently warm year after year, getting a cool September looked just about as difficult as getting a cold winter season. It wasn't drastically cool in Sept 2012, like Sept 1993 and 1986, but getting a CET of 13.0 is a start! At least the coolest for 18 years, which even though temperatures were little more than 0.5*C below average, it is a clear reflection of the absence of cool Septembers in recent years rather than anything outstanding.

There must be a high chance of a sub 10*C CET year for 2012 now. If the final three months were to mirror the warmest Oct to Dec period on record set last year, the yearly CET would be 10.27*C, which although this scenario seems unlikely, it is just about the upper limit for the 2012 annual CET now. If temperatures remained about average for the rest of the year, then the yearly CET would finish around the 9.75 level. Only a well above average month or two in these next three months could rise the yearly CET above 10*C now. There seems little prospect of a sub 9.5 year, unless we see a repeat of Nov / Dec 2010 at the end of this year.

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So its four months in six that are 1C or more below the recent 30 year average, not since Dec 1995 - May 1996 has that happened.

Im not sure why the 1961-90 average is being used all of a sudden, I dont remember the 1951-80 averages being used in the 2000s?

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So its four months in six that are 1C or more below the recent 30 year average, not since Dec 1995 - May 1996 has that happened.

Im not sure why the 1961-90 average is being used all of a sudden, I dont remember the 1951-80 averages being used in the 2000s?

I'm using them as a threshold as they were the only months left that hadn't produce at least one that was 0.5C below the 1961-90 average for at least 15 years. Believe it or not April 2012 was the first such April since that average came into being! The last occasions June and September were, when 1961-90 was the latest 30 year average.

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The figures confirmed at 13.0c as above, 1.0c below the 1981-2010 average.

No-one got this spot on, and generally most people went for much milder probably based on a warm start to September being expected, however this was offset by a very cool remainder of the month.

Harve (prediction of 12.9) and Wales123098 (13.1) was both 0.1c out, so well done to both.

The Autumn seasonal comp sees Wales123098 (1st), Harve (2nd), with 3 other players who were 0.2 out in 3rd, 4th and 5th. Isolated Frost, Ferryhill Weather and cheeky_monkey respectively.

Overall no change in the top 2 with reef leading from DR Hosking with Thundery wintry showers up to 3rd. But still very close.

Figures in the usual Excel and PDF Format.

Sept 2012 CET.xls

Sept 2012 CET.pdf

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Oh dear yet another month where I my guess is way out... I thought we might just come under 13 degrees. Anyway it ended up quite an autumnal month and a rare cool wet September.

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