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A Winter's Tale

September CET Watch

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With just about a week and a half to go before we're in September, it's probably time to have our thoughts on what September could have instore for us. An overall very wet and generally below average summer 2012 has been, but, August has been some sort of an improvement as we near the beginning of autumn. September is often a fairly decent month for warm weather and can often be a continuation of summer but at the same time as daylight hours shorten, September can be host for the type of autumnal weather that's often absent in the height in summer.

After the 32.4C reading in Cavendish yesterday, I'd say that the relatively warm trend of late may be a theme of September but as will the developing presence of more typical autumnal conditions.

I'll opt for 14.3C.

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Has anyone got the detailed temperature lists. Looking at the CFS it may well be a cool-average one.

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I hope it's seasonal. I'll make my guess at a later date.

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Its been a very long time since we saw an appreciably below average September- Mr Data will have the stats. In recent years, September has delivered some very pleasant weather indeed with lengthy dry sunny warm spells most notably in 2005, 2006 and last year. As usual I will give my predictions towards the end of the month I often think an unsettled end to August usually means a very decent start to September. The first 10 days of September on average are the most settled of the whole year, autumnal conditions rarely make their presence before the equinox. I do find September the least interesting month weatherwise, apart from the promise of the first autumnal storm, it is often a very benign month with few temp extremes. In recent years it has been very 'trying' in this respect..

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Its been a very long time since we saw an appreciably below average September- Mr Data will have the stats. In recent years, September has delivered some very pleasant weather indeed with lengthy dry sunny warm spells most notably in 2005, 2006 and last year. As usual I will give my predictions towards the end of the month I often think an unsettled end to August usually means a very decent start to September. The first 10 days of September on average are the most settled of the whole year, autumnal conditions rarely make their presence before the equinox. I do find September the least interesting month weatherwise, apart from the promise of the first autumnal storm, it is often a very benign month with few temp extremes. In recent years it has been very 'trying' in this respect..

I take it you mean lacking in low temperatures as late September last year broke some date records. You cant get much more unusual than that.

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I'll make my guess when someone posts the averages please, haha.

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Its been a very long time since we saw an appreciably below average September- Mr Data will have the stats. In recent years, September has delivered some very pleasant weather indeed with lengthy dry sunny warm spells most notably in 2005, 2006 and last year. As usual I will give my predictions towards the end of the month I often think an unsettled end to August usually means a very decent start to September. The first 10 days of September on average are the most settled of the whole year, autumnal conditions rarely make their presence before the equinox. I do find September the least interesting month weatherwise, apart from the promise of the first autumnal storm, it is often a very benign month with few temp extremes. In recent years it has been very 'trying' in this respect..

Indeed it seems so long since we had a below average September. In the last 15 years September has often brought very warm weather with some notable heatwaves for so late in the year - notably so in early Sept 1999, mid Sept 2003, early Sept in 2004, 2005, 2006, and at the end of Sept last year. Over the last 15 years on a couple of occasions we have been close to, or just below the 1961-90 average, in 2001 and 2008, but it is certainly the case that there has not been a September more than 0.2 / 0.3 below the 61-90 or 71-00 mean since 1994 (12.7) - 18 years. Sept 1993 also saw a cool month (12.4).

September is one of the main months, and even by now it is THE most significant month in the year not to see anything cool at all during recent years and indeed during the last 15 years or so.

Many people dispute pattern matching, and links between a particular month and the following season's weather, but my belief is that warmer conditions than average during September, in particular notable heatwaves, is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the following winter, and at the very least, reduce the chances of colder weather over the following winter. On the other hand I do not believe that the theory is true the other way round, there does not appear to be any trend between a cooler September and the following winter.

It appears that a cool to average September doesen't have a bearing on the forthcoming winter, but if it gets too warm during September, then this does increase the chance of a milder than average winter to follow. Believe it or not, notable heatwaves during September are not what we want to see with respect to colder winter weather.

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Guest pjl20101

Going for 15.4. I am back on this forum as pjl20101, was previously known as ledders69 but that got closed. Thought I'd rejoin this well respected forum as Gavin p advised me ages ago that I shouldn't have left really. Anyway my assumptions are that September will be a warmer and drier month than average.

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We are long overdue a cold september, would love one this year to prove they are still achievable, the warmth and humidity since mid June are getting very tiring now, would love to see a greenland high dominated september with some proper PM air coming south, september can deliver the first properly cool PM northwesterlies since the spring, don't usually last long but still very nice.

I think the earliest lowland snowfall in england is around Sept 19th so proves just what is possible in September.

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Its been a very long time since we saw an appreciably below average September- Mr Data will have the stats. In recent years, September has delivered some very pleasant weather indeed with lengthy dry sunny warm spells most notably in 2005, 2006 and last year. As usual I will give my predictions towards the end of the month I often think an unsettled end to August usually means a very decent start to September. The first 10 days of September on average are the most settled of the whole year, autumnal conditions rarely make their presence before the equinox. I do find September the least interesting month weatherwise, apart from the promise of the first autumnal storm, it is often a very benign month with few temp extremes. In recent years it has been very 'trying' in this respect..

It's the only month left now that has not recorded one at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average in the last 10 years. Both April and June fell this year, it can be only a matter of time.

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14.0c

I shall go for 13.5C then.

Fairly dry but generally cool overall.

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Indeed it seems so long since we had a below average September. In the last 15 years September has often brought very warm weather with some notable heatwaves for so late in the year - notably so in early Sept 1999, mid Sept 2003, early Sept in 2004, 2005, 2006, and at the end of Sept last year. Over the last 15 years on a couple of occasions we have been close to, or just below the 1961-90 average, in 2001 and 2008, but it is certainly the case that there has not been a September more than 0.2 / 0.3 below the 61-90 or 71-00 mean since 1994 (12.7) - 18 years. Sept 1993 also saw a cool month (12.4).

September is one of the main months, and even by now it is THE most significant month in the year not to see anything cool at all during recent years and indeed during the last 15 years or so.

Many people dispute pattern matching, and links between a particular month and the following season's weather, but my belief is that warmer conditions than average during September, in particular notable heatwaves, is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the following winter, and at the very least, reduce the chances of colder weather over the following winter. On the other hand I do not believe that the theory is true the other way round, there does not appear to be any trend between a cooler September and the following winter.

It appears that a cool to average September doesen't have a bearing on the forthcoming winter, but if it gets too warm during September, then this does increase the chance of a milder than average winter to follow. Believe it or not, notable heatwaves during September are not what we want to see with respect to colder winter weather.

In response to Millhouse post, perhaps I should have clarified what I meant by the word 'extremes', whilst September can deliver very warm weather even hot weather, in terms of weather it tends to be the most 'benign' month in terms of feel.. any very warm weather isn't normally associated with the intense humidity and sun strength of the summer months and generally feels much more pleasant. Unlike the Oct-March period, atlantic weather systems whilst they can pack a punch in terms of rain and can bring gales in Sept, again such conditions don't feel as unpleasant as they would do in the Oct-Mar period. In terms of cold, Sept is less likely to deliver frost than May and low temps are very hard to achieve, more likely to see simgle digit maxima in May than September.

In response to northerly blast post, I'm too sure about the theory that warm spells in Sept usually mean less chance of a cold winter, though it is interesting to note out of the years you mentioned, only winter 05/06 ended up average or below. The warm spells in sept 99, 04, 06 and 11 indeed were followed by mild or very mild winters.. Going further back though didn't september 78 bring alot of warm weather, indeed autumn 78 was very mild and we ended up with the third coldest winter of the 20th century.

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