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Isolated Frost

Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

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If the gulf stream did shut down, would you expect our winters to be like Vancouver? If so, then they wouldn't be any different at all, since the two are virtually the same, except winters in Vancouver finish earlier.

Anyway, perhaps London would have winters similar to Prince Rupert, BC? Baltic by London standards Posted Image

http://en.wikipedia....olumbia#Climate

And maybe Braemar would be like Yarmouth, Nova Scotia? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarmouth,_Nova_Scotia#Climate :p

Edited by Aaron

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No BC has the mildest winters in Canada..so you weren't paying attention in Geography!

I googled it before I posted and found out that they have very cold winters?

I was the best in my class at Geography..

Not quite that logical. As has been mentioned, we would still get most of our winds off the Atlantic, which will cause mild temperatures (just not quite as mild as now). Would you consider the winters in Vancouver as very cold?

Being surrounded by water, with an ocean to the west, under a predominantly westerly air flow is a much larger cause of our mild winters than the gulf stream.

But the gulf stream is a major driver to the westerly flow over the Atlantic. Without it wouldn't the prevailing westerlies change?

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I googled it before I posted and found out that they have very cold winters?

I was the best in my class at Geography..

But the gulf stream is a major driver to the westerly flow over the Atlantic. Without it wouldn't the prevailing westerlies change?

My understanding of it is that in the mid latitudes, across the entire northern hemisphere between about 40-60N, westerly winds are the most common on average, due to air moving from the tropics to the poles being deflected to the right in the northern hemisphere by the Coriolis effect, which is a large part of what forms the jet stream and gives us our westerlies.

The gulf stream doesn't really affect this, and is part of a more complex global thermohaline circulation pattern.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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I googled it before I posted and found out that they have very cold winters?

I was the best in my class at Geography..

But the gulf stream is a major driver to the westerly flow over the Atlantic. Without it wouldn't the prevailing westerlies change?

If you could just bring the earth's spin on its axis to a halt and then send it in the opposite direction, then once everything has calmed down over a few hundred years you might find the prevailing westerlies had become easterlies! Of course, the distribution of heat and cold and also ocean currents would also then be drastically altered, so there'd be no guarantee at all that they would behave similarly but in reverse. It would actually be quite interesting if such a spin reversal could be modelled by computer just to see where we might end up, for fun...

Edited by Nick B

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Talking about the Earth's axis, if we all don't mind waiting, then it will eventually tilt back to an angle where the Sahara will once again green over and turn lush, and Northern Europe will benefit from more snow and ice.....Posted Image

Here is a link to the snow and ice cover images in the form of a 31 day loop so you can see all the changes.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/ak-1mo-loop.html

Edited by MadSnowboarder

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enjoying the debate guys?

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We would still have predominantly westerly winds if the gulf stream did shut down, which is not happening anyway! Our climate would not be to different. But that's not fun, or related! The Climate and Science section is handy for that debate Posted Image

post-12276-0-39858700-1345742488_thumb.j

And the winter starts here, on this little archipelago at 82N, deeply in the arctic circle. Svalbard has had it's first covering of the cold winter to come.

post-12276-0-04843400-1345742620_thumb.g

Today's snow and ice offering. Them white dots are beginning to accumulate now...

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The climate and science section is full of scary and angry people..

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I googled it before I posted and found out that they have very cold winters?

I was the best in my class at Geography..

only interior northern BC has very cold winters..the majortiy of BC west of the Rockies is similar to the uk...warmer drier summers slightly colder and slightly wetter winters..obviously the standard of geography teaching has plummeted since i left school

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If we were to lose the Gulf Stream then the biggest benefit would be in the much greater ice coverage on our side of the Arctic so this would put the cold air closer and increase albedo which would have an effect on our winters even if winds were generally westerly.

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We would still have predominantly westerly winds if the gulf stream did shut down, which is not happening anyway! Our climate would not be to different. But that's not fun, or related! The Climate and Science section is handy for that debate Posted Image

post-12276-0-39858700-1345742488_thumb.j

And the winter starts here, on this little archipelago at 82N, deeply in the arctic circle. Svalbard has had it's first covering of the cold winter to come.

post-12276-0-04843400-1345742620_thumb.g

Today's snow and ice offering. Them white dots are beginning to accumulate now...

nice cam picture I.F. Posted Image its up the hill from longyearbyen at 79N http://www.alltravel...servatory-15722 looks like snow has coved the lens at the present time! (snow ramp alert!) keep those white dots coming... not sure if it can be winter when the sun has not set at midnight?! but having said that it will be set by 14.30 by the middle of october. according to my astronomy program. I guess by losing 10 minutes of sunlight a day its going to look like winter soon.

more cool snow cams link http://www.alltravel.../webcams-265614

any guess I.F. how long before we can start looking more south than this for a taste of the coming snow (days or weeks?)

getlatlon.com shows me the south of Svalbard is at 76.6N and top of Norway is at 71deg

The thing I like about longyearbyen is that its a town or a very small city and at sealevel rather than a snowy wasteland say on a hilly bit of siberia so it makes the snow feel closer to home. ok I'm snow talked out so heres to a warm late summer and autumn!

post-15601-0-66420100-1345756726_thumb.j

post-15601-0-21444100-1345758790_thumb.j

Edited by harshwintercoming

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cant think of the exact year as i have all the information up in the attic at the moment but in the late 1500 s possibly 1589 feb and march were both severe ,with vast amounts of very deep snow in all parts of the country ,especially so ireland and western britain , even london people died from severe cold ,BUT IT WAS NOTED IN MANY DIARIES KEPT BY MONKS AND CHURCH RECORDS THAT THE SNOW QUITE OFTEN ARRIVED ON WESTERLY WINDS .research since as concluded that this was a very severe outbreak of LAKE EFFECT SNOW ,IS THERE A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS HAPPENED A LOT DURING THE ICE AGE , HOWEVER THE ICE AGE STARTED IS STILL OPEN TO DEBATE ,BUT VAST AMOUNTS OF SNOW MUST HAVE FALLEN TO CREATE ALL THAT ICE .GIVEN THE RIGHT WEATHER PATTERN BRITAIN IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO STAY PRETTY WELL FROZEN WITH DEEP SNOW FROM LATE OCTOBER TILL POSSIBLY LATE APRIL . ANOTHER THOUGHT ,DID ANY POLAR BEARS VISIT IRELAND WHEN CONDITIONS WERE RIGHT ,ITS NOT THAT FAR FETCHED IF ONE WAS ON A LARGE PIECE OF FLOATING ICE .THIS QUESTION WAS PUT FORWARD IN A SCIENTIFIC PAPER .I BET A LOAD OF UNEXPECTED THINGS HAPPENED IF WE KNEW THE PAST . REGARDS LEGRITTER

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cant think of the exact year as i have all the information up in the attic at the moment but in the late 1500 s possibly 1589 feb and march were both severe ,with vast amounts of very deep snow in all parts of the country ,especially so ireland and western britain , even london people died from severe cold ,BUT IT WAS NOTED IN MANY DIARIES KEPT BY MONKS AND CHURCH RECORDS THAT THE SNOW QUITE OFTEN ARRIVED ON WESTERLY WINDS .research since as concluded that this was a very severe outbreak of LAKE EFFECT SNOW ,IS THERE A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS HAPPENED A LOT DURING THE ICE AGE , HOWEVER THE ICE AGE STARTED IS STILL OPEN TO DEBATE ,BUT VAST AMOUNTS OF SNOW MUST HAVE FALLEN TO CREATE ALL THAT ICE .GIVEN THE RIGHT WEATHER PATTERN BRITAIN IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO STAY PRETTY WELL FROZEN WITH DEEP SNOW FROM LATE OCTOBER TILL POSSIBLY LATE APRIL . ANOTHER THOUGHT ,DID ANY POLAR BEARS VISIT IRELAND WHEN CONDITIONS WERE RIGHT ,ITS NOT THAT FAR FETCHED IF ONE WAS ON A LARGE PIECE OF FLOATING ICE .THIS QUESTION WAS PUT FORWARD IN A SCIENTIFIC PAPER .I BET A LOAD OF UNEXPECTED THINGS HAPPENED IF WE KNEW THE PAST . REGARDS LEGRITTER

I'd be able to take this post a lot more seriously if everything wasn't in capital letters, I need an Asprin now! Any chance when you dig out that information you could send me a PM about it? Things like this interest me greatly!

Back on topic! Is that snow I see in Northern Scandi/Finland?

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only interior northern BC has very cold winters..the majortiy of BC west of the Rockies is similar to the uk...warmer drier summers slightly colder and slightly wetter winters..obviously the standard of geography teaching has plummeted since i left school

We don't get taught about Canadian Geography though, I just remember getting taught about the gulf stream, and how the seasons would be effected. Interesting stuff.

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Love this thread; specifically the anticipation / expectation it brings of a cold UK Winter.

Sun is very quiet at the moment; interesting article published this week in the AGU correlating low solar activity and cold European winters:

http://www.agu.org/n...2/2012-39.shtml

Another similar article published by the NewScientist back in 2004 correlating low sunspot activity and the price of cerials:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6680

Edited by Cutty Dyer

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Yes i agree the sun is quiet at the moment, and has been for the last few days. But as far as cme's are concerned we have already past last years activity where it took untill november to reach the point we have got to now. So with that said ,the sun certainly is not quiet, and with solar max expected in 2013 expect things to liven up. Also there are lag effects regarding cme's on our weather.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Love this thread; specifically the anticipation / expectation it brings of a cold UK Winter.

Sun is very quiet at the moment; interesting article published this week in the AGU correlating low solar activity and cold European winters:

http://www.agu.org/n...2/2012-39.shtml

Another similar article published by the NewScientist back in 2004 correlating low sunspot activity and the price of cerials:

http://www.newscient.../article/dn6680

To me its loading the dice towards a cold winter would be surprised but not shocked if its a warm one. Any one got any other clues showing up regarding our decent towards a cold winter, maybe too early to guess?

Edited by harshwintercoming

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Yes i agree the sun is quiet at the moment, and has been for the last few days. But as far as cme's are concerned we have already past last years activity where it took untill november to reach the point we have got to now. So with that said ,the sun certainly is not quiet, and with solar max expected in 2013 expect things to liven up. Also there are lag effects regarding cme's on our weather.

With reference to solar max, I've been trying to find any updates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan ref the solar observation satellite Hinode.

This sensationalist piece was published in April:

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075

I've been unable to find any later data/articles.

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I too read that article, think I posted the link on page 3 of this thread. I've also been searching for updates but haven't come across anything yet.

Will be interesting to see if the Japan scientists are going to proven right or not.

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With reference to solar max, I've been trying to find any updates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan ref the solar observation satellite Hinode.

This sensationalist piece was published in April:

http://ajw.asahi.com.../AJ201204200075

I've been unable to find any later data/articles.

There may be a few interesting papers here that may be of use http://forum.netweat...18#entry2305418

Here is a very interesting paper http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Have very quickly read the bottom article posted by Polar. Very interesting.

Would anyone be able to describe the effects of a 1 degree drop in average temperature for the northern hemisphere?? I think it mentioned a greater than 3.5 degree drop for places like Svalbard during winter and Arctic cooling creating an amplification process. .. It was a very technical read lol.

Posted Image

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