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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13


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In spite of my slight negativity of the slow crawl of snow and ice towards our shores, I think us guys n gals should check the calendar. Posted Image Here is yesterday's (19th November) offering from NOAA.

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Now, where were we, a week back (12th November)

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And almost a week further back, i.e 7th November (near two weeks ago)

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Upon a quick glance of the GFS 0z ensembles, to our East, Moscow looks set fair for a while with possibilities of it becoming much colder and snowier as we enter December. To our Northeast, Helsinki is forecast a messier scenario, but there are strong hints for an unsettled period with an ever increasing likelihood of snow from the beginning of next week, if not before. To our Northwest, Reyjavic is extremely messy but there still remains a fairly strong indication that things are becoming more settled and warmer over this region. With regard to Iceland, my last comment should NOT being taken as a bad signal as it indicates WAA and a probable sign for blocking. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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im wondering why not much attention is paid to the North American snow cover as the jet moves from west to east..surely the amount of snow and ice would have an impact to the jet and pressure patterns leading to possible downstream changes as it exit the eastern seaboard into the north Atlantic?

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im wondering why not much attention is paid to the North American snow cover as the jet moves from west to east..surely the amount of snow and ice would have an impact to the jet and pressure patterns leading to possible downstream changes as it exit the eastern seaboard into the north Atlantic?

Hi Cheeky

I think if you look at either the strat thread or technical model thread then they do very much take account of the snow cover in north america and how important it is in the pattern change we are starting to see. So you comments are correct re the down stream changes

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The ice continues to build and western Canada has filled in nicely again. Looking at today's charts, I don't think snow cover is going to be much of a problem for Northern Europe by the beginning of December! Looks cold for us, but could be snowmagedan for Scand?

Posted Image

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jet stream in tatters ' highs growing stronger over Greenland and arctic..happy winter everybody...here the 4th sunny day in a row..I hear of rain and wind here its frost and sun...

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Let it roll guys n gals.

http://www.myweather...type=UPPER_TEMP

Posted Image The above only goes out as far as midnight Tuesday but you can clearly see the beginnings of our cold spell, enveloping us from both the North and the East. Posted Image This becoming more apparent, later within the animation. Posted Image

Below is the latest snow and ice image, courtesy of NOAA, although it looks a bit suspect. Posted Image

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Here are the 21st and the 23rd November 12z GEFS for Moscow, way out East. Note the mean (red line) and control (blue line) trend in T850s and associated precipitation.

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Here are the 21st and the 23rd November 12z GEFS for Helsinki, way out Northeast. Note the mean (red line) and control (blue line) trend in T850s and associated precipitation here too.

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Finally, the 21st and the 23rd November 12z GEFS for Reyjavic, due Northwest of our shores by a few hundred miles. Note the mean (red line) and control (blue line) trend in T850s and associated precipitation here as well.

post-7183-0-12241400-1353708090_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-50060500-1353708089_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-08406700-1353708130_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-52199100-1353708130_thumb.pn

From the above, I hope you can ascertain as to where the GFS models might be heading, in terms of Northern Europe and Eastern Europe's snow cover. Bear in mind as ever, trends IMO are often acquired when one compares like for like runs, as shown above. Rather amazingly, I would suggest FI is within the region of t+48 to t+72 over parts of Europe, so it would be folly to deduce anything other than a general cooling down for our shores at this stage, the snow will then follow. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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From the above, I hope you can ascertain as to where the GFS models might be heading, in terms of Northern Europe and Eastern Europe's snow cover. Bear in mind as ever, trends IMO are often acquired when one compares like for like runs, as shown above. Rather amazingly, I would suggest FI is within the region of t+48 to t+72 over parts of Europe, so it would be folly to deduce anything other than a general cooling down for our shores at this stage, the snow will then follow. Posted Image

Excellent post! The key is to get the cold here first, then the snow will look after itself. The trend over recent years has been that cold has hung about longer than originally forecast (December's 2009 and 2010 in this neck of the woods for example). Anyway, going off topic, I'm off to view the NH snow cover charts!

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Snow cover stable over the NH.....that's soon to change though!!!!! Ice cover accelerating as the below chart indicates; almost caught 2007 (previous record low)

Posted Image

Edited by Ice Day
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I believe that the snow is making progress west. I have been deliberately been keeping away for a while and checking in periodically to see the progress being made. It makes for better viewing this way.

It's all looking good and the charts for the coming cool down look very promising.

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A bit of a westerly 'encroachment' in Russia and ice continues to build, otherwise it's much as you were throughout the NH...............not for long though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Yes it will quite interesting to see how the snow will progress westwards when we (hopefully) get this easterly later in the week. Edited by panayiotis
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When does the Baltic begin to freeze?

This website http://www.itameripo..._GB/jaatilanne/ gives you all the information on current, previous year, and average Baltic ice conditions; but the season has not yet started, so the simple maps are still showing the situation from last May.

However, if you follow the link below to the 'Actual coloured ice chart' http://www.itameripo...ef/icemap_c.pdf , the map is fairly current, and shows that on 22nd Nov the first ice of the season was JUST beginning to form in some of the inlets on the far northern edge of The Gulf of Bothnia.

Edited by osmposm
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Further to this post from the other day, it does seem the 12z GFS output is trending as suggested. I can confirm SNOW from the following places, as indicated on the webcams, shown below.

Moscow - http://www.earthcam.com/russia/moscow/

Reykjavíkurtjörn - http://live.mila.is/english/tjornin/

Reykjavík - http://eldgos.mila.i...lish/reykjavik/

It is going as planned so far and my thoughts on the UKs prospects, can be seen via the link below. Please note there is a SE bias to it, so that has to be factored in, when thinking about your own prospects for SNOW. Posted Image

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2415887

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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