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Isolated Frost

Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

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Anyone know how to post a couple of comparison fotos from 2011 & 2010, so we can see the ice around Greenland ??

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Just read some research which shows strong correlations between rapid arctic sea ice melt and high levels of winter snowfall over the northern hemisphere. The research shows how record snowcover in the northern hemisphere during winter 09/10 and 10/11 coincided with record arctic sea ice melt in the preceeding late summer period. I think last summer saw less melt than this year, and the 2009, 2010 - we ended up with a very snowless January at least across much of the northern hemisphere and apart from Feb in Russia/East Europe a much less cold winter - particularly across north america.. Will be interesting to see if this same correlation shows up this winter - if so, we could be in for a snow cold fest and the continuation of a very amplified jet and strong heights over greenland..

I must be thinking about the winter ahead.. I often do around now, when summer slowly comes to an end, even though some parts of the country are experiencing the hottest weather of the year so far.

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Just read some research which shows strong correlations between rapid arctic sea ice melt and high levels of winter snowfall over the northern hemisphere. The research shows how record snowcover in the northern hemisphere during winter 09/10 and 10/11 coincided with record arctic sea ice melt in the preceeding late summer period. I think last summer saw less melt than this year, and the 2009, 2010 - we ended up with a very snowless January at least across much of the northern hemisphere and apart from Feb in Russia/East Europe a much less cold winter - particularly across north america.. Will be interesting to see if this same correlation shows up this winter - if so, we could be in for a snow cold fest and the continuation of a very amplified jet and strong heights over greenland..

I must be thinking about the winter ahead.. I often do around now, when summer slowly comes to an end, even though some parts of the country are experiencing the hottest weather of the year so far.

Hi DS, do you have a link to this research you have read ? It sounds like a very interesting read.

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Hi ds do u have a link for that research? Thanks.

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Hi DS, do you have a link to this research you have read ? It sounds like a very interesting read.

Here we go...http://www.deas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/FrancisVavrus2012.pdf this paper was over in the Arctic Ice thread. Was more than likely what DS was talking about..

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Okay.

People view this thread generally to watch winter roll in. To see how the cryosphere is doing. Observe it, analyse it etc etc. Some people like to see webcams around the world, some people like to do composites to see how pixel coverage in Siberia in mid-summer will pan out for the British Isles come winter.

I'd like to think I'm the former, but alas, I'm probably not!

I'm going to do composites for winter cet. All sub-2c figures, sub-3c figures and 3-4c figures.

Right. I'm simply going to show all the May-July periods for certain CET brackets.

post-12276-0-42442300-1345379249_thumb.p

So, that's the 500hpa geopotential height composite. It generally indicates that we needed strong heights towards the mid-atlantic, and very low heights in Europe. The arctic basin generally has above average heights, with a strong vortex in action.

post-12276-0-92147600-1345379524_thumb.p

2012 doesn't show this. It shows strong heights around Greenland, whilst we have a low height belt centred over the UK, stretching into the arctic basin. It also shows strong heights around the arctic circle. So, it doesn't look like sub-2c atm. Nothing crazy good so far.

post-12276-0-04202000-1345379882_thumb.p

Right, so we've got 1962/63, and 1978/79, and we had them to these freezing winters, so everything sub 3.0c. It basically amplifies the sub 2c effect. Strong heights around the arctic, a very active vortex. North Pacific ridge and trough in the South Pacific.

Still, ouch for 2012/13.

Now, I'm going to go 3c-4c range, so, not sub 4c, but similar. If we want a cold winter, anything sub 4c will do.post-12276-0-79519600-1345380453_thumb.p

So, generally we have strong heights in the arctic and in greenland (more promising, ey?). You still have a minor pacific ridge, and general low heights around Europe.

So, we've seen the upper atmosphere, and it doesn't generally support us.

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Side note- some of you might be thinking, what on earth has these composites have to do with Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere?! I agree in a way, but this is a good thread to see how synoptics in these years relate to this years, and then the years which relate well, you can compare later on with snow pixels.

post-12276-0-18174600-1345382394_thumb.p

post-12276-0-93339300-1345382394_thumb.p

But the 850hpa anomaly looks very compatible. Which is surely a big positive for us. All this means that in recent times, we are closer to a Jan 2010 or Dec 2010, than a Dec 2006 or Jan 2012, but it's all relative.

I won't link all the geopotential height composites of the last 10 years, especially as August's data will make anything more conclusive, but I can show you June and July of this year.

post-12276-0-90769600-1345382887_thumb.p

And now the one of June 1 - August 16 Posted Image

Right, so I've looked at the past 10 years for June 1 to August 16, and tried to find close matches.

Those that are close to the 2012 composite, I will bold below.

2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011

So, that is 3 years. 1 one of them quite mild, another one slightly below average and quite snowy, another one being one of the coldest and snowiest in history. Hmm... rest assured, you shouldn't expect a 2010-2011 winter, one of the furthest composites there, same with the 2006-2007 winter.

So, here is the 2007 composite first Posted Image

And the 2008 composite Posted Image

And finally the 2009 composite Posted Image

To me, that looks most like the 2008 composite, mostly due to the situation around the arctic basin. The 2007 second, and 2009 just in third.

Now, I'll have a look at the Arctic Ice situation in these years.

Sea ice in 2012 looks slightly lower than 2007 and 2008 at this time. 0.3km off 2007, and 0.7km worse than 2008, but 2008 eventually falls to a level very much near 2007, before accelerating northwards earlier than 2007.

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Finally, a post dedicated to Sea Ice and Sea Ice alone.

We are on day 229 of this year. Another way to predict a winter could well be (this is a rather exotic and slightly un-proven method I've developed) to take the data from days 250 to 300 in Sea Ice Area.

Por examplar:

Difference in Sea Ice Area in days 250 to 300, last 6 years

2006: 1.97km2

2007: 2.59km2

2008: 3.89km2

2009: 2.68km2

2010: 3.33km2

2011: 3.12km2

You will of course get your odd anomaly (2009 in this case), but the general trend would be the colder/snowier the winter on the near continent/british isles, the more you would need the 250-300 figure needs to be.

Another method:

Day for lowest Sea Ice Area

2006: Day 266

2007: Day 250

2008: Day 252

2009: Day 252

2010: Day 251

2011: Day 253

Not really so much of a method, but it strikes me as very interesting that the minimum has occurred within the same 4 days for the last 5 years! That means it's always between September 7th and September 10th. So, that is an important date in the calendar.

Next, some snow analysis.

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I'll do tomorrows update I.F. thanks for doing today's :-)

I think we're gonna be very near the minimum ice extent again this year.

And seeing as the weather patterns and jet stream are still braving oddly , I'd expect the winter to be cold first half and very mild second half??

We''ll see anyway won't we:-P

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You know winter isn't far away when see this thread! Quick search for cyclonic happiness and northern hemisphere and boom! My yearly weather forum reading and winter excitement starts again. :) Cheers CH and IF.

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Snow. Let's analyse snow.

July snow totals, Northern Hemisphere (Eurasia)

2006: 3.50km2 (0.35km2)

2007: 3.02km2 (0.30km2)

2008: 2.52km2 (0.20km2)

2009: 2.68km2 (0.16km2)

2010: 2.58km2 (0.17km2)

2011: 2.53km2 (0.16km2)

2012: 2.31km2 (0.14km2)

January snow totals, Northern Hemisphere (6 months difference) Eurasia (6 months difference)

2007: 44.87km2 (+41.37km2) 27.09km2 (+26.74km2)

2008: 49.78km2 (+46.76km2) 31.88km2 (+31.58km2)

2009: 47.14km2 (+44.62km2) 29.36km2 (+29.16km2)

2010: 48.27km2 (+45.69km2) 30.07km2 (+29.91km2)

2011: 48.47km2 (+45.89km2) 30.11km2 (+29.94km2)

2012: 46.90km2 (+44.37km2) 30.32km2 (+30.16km2)

Not what I quite expected, 2007-2008 was very good. The general trend is for Summers to be more snow-less and ice-less, whilst Winters stay similar to the historic average, even surging above at times.

So, after all of that, I expect snow levels to be very similar across the NH this Autumn and WInter, and it'll be interesting to see how the Ice fares. If it surges quicker than usual, then I'd expect a 2008-2009 esque winter, so colder than average, but if it doesn't, more like 2007-2008 is possible.

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Taking a purely superficial look, it appears that the upsurges follow Arctic ice minima? I wonder if that same might happen this winter?

Warning! Could be wishful thinking...

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Taking a purely superficial look, it appears that the upsurges follow Arctic ice minima? I wonder if that same might happen this winter?

Warning! Could be wishful thinking...

I don't think I understand? Every time that Arctic Ice minima occur, upsurges have to occur.

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Look at the Eurasia snow levels for January 2008 and 2012 after particularly low summer ice in 2007 and 2011 - then look at the ice levels this summer.....

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Here's a graph of the sea ice extent minima (inverted, scale on the right y axis) and the Oct-Dec mean northern hemisphere snow cover (scale on the left y axis)

post-6901-0-13071600-1345393262_thumb.gi

A very coarse correlation seems apparent, but it also appears that since the early-mid 90s, Oct-Dec snow cover hasn't changed much while sea ice has dropped a lot.

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I don't think I understand? Every time that Arctic Ice minima occur, upsurges have to occur.

Sorry IF. I meant: is there a correlation between summer ice-loss and following winter's snowfall...

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Part two of the Polar Express, Scandinavia gets it's first blast.

post-12276-0-85184900-1345400958_thumb.g

Snow in the northern mountains of Norway and Sweden at +66 to +78.

Posted Image

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Part two of the Polar Express, Scandinavia gets it's first blast.

post-12276-0-85184900-1345400958_thumb.g

Snow in the northern mountains of Norway and Sweden at +66 to +78.

Posted Image

Now it's my turn to be thick! What's with the skateboarding ramp?

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