Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

[damianslaw]

It's encouraging to see the webcam shots of snow appearing in the thread. Now you know the long slid into winter is well underway.

The tops of the Glencoe Mountain and Cairngorm Mountain recieved a dusting again yesterday, so it's looking good for regular snowfall on the high ground as we enter October. The last thing we want though is the same as last year. A sharp blast at the end of the month followed by unseasonably warm temps at altitude which saw the ski season really struggle to get underway.

-5 Isotherm looking like it could brush Northern Scotland next Saturday.

Last autumn from memory was a poor show for snowfall on the scottish mountains thanks to anomalously mild SW winds. There was a shortlived polar blast inbetween the 17th-19th October which brought a cover of snow down to 400-500m, but this was quickly washed away by a very mild wet period weather that lasted through much of November. December however, saw much snow thanks to chilly westerly/northwesterly airstreams, but again the very mild end to the month and start to the new year thawed much of it away from the very highest ground. It took until late Jan before ideal skiing conditions were established. Very different to the 08/09, 09/10 and 10/11 seasons which all brought mid winter season conditions before christmas, in the case of 2010 exceptionally early in late Nov.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Iceland and Siberia doing better today.

[Mark Neal.]

Iceland and Siberia doing better today.

Positive news, hopefully in coming week things will pick up even more

Edited September 29, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal

[mackerel sky]

Seismic acquistion operations in NE Greenland have probably got one week left, and within the narrow window you still dodge icebergs. Otherwise it requires an icebreaker in front of the vessel and you can only tow a limited cable, because the sea ice refreezes behind.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Positive news, hopefully in coming week things will pick up even more

me too don't want to wait till mid or late October for decent dumps of snow especialy in the north of the nordic area

[mackerel sky]

I keep an eye on Harstad and when their first snowfall is coming. I was in town when they got their first snowfall last year and it was rather late - 2nd week of November.

Given that Harstad is north of the Arctic circle, it must be one, if not the mildest place for that latitude, even this month they had temperatures approaching 20C.

Edited September 30, 2012 by mackerel sky

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.snsk.no/longyearbyen.145587.no.html

More fresh dumpings here....*sigh*

[LincolnSnowstorm]

http://www.snsk.no/l....145587.no.html

More fresh dumpings here....*sigh*

Hope they fix the webkamera soon! Not looking as Daz white as Wednesday but still good to see.

[Mountain Snow]

http://www.snsk.no/l....145587.no.html

More fresh dumpings here....*sigh*

Does this port freeze over in the winter, if so what time of year should we expect ice to form?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Does this port freeze over in the winter, if so what time of year should we expect ice to form?

It does freeze over in winter, probably a gradual process from the start of the winter months.

Local Coast Guard breaking Ice for supply ship.

Tourist Ship stuck in ice.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Think snowfalls could really build into mid October. As it has been the record low year for arctic ice, there will be a lot more humidity up there, inevitably being dumped as snow over mainland Russia and Canada, Scandinavia isn't out of the question either! Starting to get excited now for winter.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

I keep an eye on Harstad and when their first snowfall is coming. I was in town when they got their first snowfall last year and it was rather late - 2nd week of November.

Given that Harstad is north of the Arctic circle, it must be one, if not the mildest place for that latitude, even this month they had temperatures approaching 20C.

I will keep an eye on it too, see if it can beat last year http://www.webcams.t...Harstad-Harstad

Like you say a very mild Location http://www.yr.no/pla...statistics.html

[damianslaw]

Think snowfalls could really build into mid October. As it has been the record low year for arctic ice, there will be a lot more humidity up there, inevitably being dumped as snow over mainland Russia and Canada, Scandinavia isn't out of the question either! Starting to get excited now for winter.

Don't have any statistics to hand, but I would imagine on average the first widespread heavy falls of snow tend to occur in mid October over much of Siberia, Greenland, northern Canada and into N Scandanavia. A northerly in mid October will certainly deliver the goods to much of scandi with a bit of height, indeed a northerly in mid october can easily bring snowfalls down to quite low levels in the scottish highlands i.e. around 350m, with a good cover over higher ground in the Lakes and Pennines above about 600m.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Just an interesting comparison October 9 2008 and the latest map Same sort of gain in Siberia and some of the same loss in North Canada, which is not found on other maps, normaly the maps show snow below greenland

Edited October 1, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[cheeky_monkey]

Just an interesting comparison October 9 2008 and the latest map Same sort of gain in Siberia and some of the same loss in North Canada, which is not found on other maps, normaly the maps show snow below greenland

strange that there seems to be less snow now than in 2008 but the red negative values are much greater in 2008 than they are now?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

strange that there seems to be less snow now than in 2008 but the red negative values are much greater in 2008 than they are now?

October 9 2008 was the best match for the gain in Siberia with a northern Canada loss ,so there's time for bigger negatives!

some people may like a Sep 29th snow vid (first minute or two) http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVGn8BowRc8&feature=plcp

Edited October 1, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[bobbydog]

some comparisons of snow cover for the next few weeks- look at where it goes, rather than how much

[LincolnSnowstorm]

some comparisons of snow cover for the next few weeks- look at where it goes, rather than how much

To increase our chances here in the UK it would be good if it goes in these areas in six weeks time

with Iceland,Scandinavia well covered (the how much!) .

After the late last winters low temperatures in Europe http://www.wundergro...tml?entrynum=62

Any cold temperature records will be getting my attention this winter as well

Perhaps some readers more expert than me can post on this thread, where they would like the snow to be placed in the next few i.e two to three weeks.

With any reasons why this may happen.

Edited October 1, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Gavin Hannah]

Def want to see that white stuff marching Westwards.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Def want to see that white stuff marching Westwards.

May see a little bit of that soon http://www.yr.no/place/Russia/Other/Hanty-Mansijsk/

[gottolovethisweather]

May see a little bit of that soon http://www.yr.no/pla...Hanty-Mansijsk/

Indeed and the attached might give a good guide as to the expectations in the following days.

Please bear in mind however, this is simply taken from one GEFS ensembles run and will be subject to change for better or worse. To be honest for Moscow, it doesn't look especially promising. Helsinki might be regarded as slightly better in terms of the trend with more consistently being hinted at, with regard to something colder. Perhaps, most hopeful of all and more meaningful would be the forward trend in t850s from Reyjavic, which I assume is as per Reykjavik in Iceland. The intriguing thing about that being the probability of a Northwesterly flow affecting the UK within the same time period. Currently however, FI is sitting at around t+96 or t+120, so the large bucket of salt might needed.

In summary, I would advise in keeping our eyes firmly fixed to points due East, Northeast and Northwest, meaning Moscow, Helsinki and Reyjavic respectively.

*Note in each case, strictly, we require the mean (red line) to sit consistently well below the 0 (zero) reading and down into the negative figures, in order to assume a decent probability of snowfall in the affected regions.

Edited October 1, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[A Winter's Tale]

Just to continue on bobbydog's excellent post, I'm keen to have a look at progress of snow in the NH in the years 2005-2011.

Starting with 1st October.

10th October:

20th October:

October 30th:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2007/ims2007303_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2006/ims2006303_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2005/ims2005303_asiaeurope.gif

November 10th:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2011/ims2011314_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2010/ims2010314_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2009/ims2009314_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2008/ims2008315_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2007/ims2007314_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2006/ims2006314_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2005/ims2005314_asiaeurope.gif

20th November:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2011/ims2011324_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2010/ims2010324_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2009/ims2009324_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2008/ims2008325_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2007/ims2007324_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2006/ims2006324_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2005/ims2005324_asiaeurope.gif

30th November:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2011/ims2011334_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2010/ims2010334_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2009/ims2009334_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2008/ims2008334_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2007/ims2007334_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2006/ims2006334_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2005/ims2005334_asiaeurope.gif

It's quite hard to find a conclusion on this but I'd say that come the end of November, if you're wanting a cold, snowy winter then you'd rather that there is more snow in Scandinavia and less of it in south eastern Europe. It's where we are come November 30th that is most important, not where or how much/little during October as the extent of the snow will develop at different rates influenced by many other factors.

[Interitus]

May see a little bit of that soon http://www.yr.no/pla...Hanty-Mansijsk/

Khanty-Mansijsk has reliable winter snow cover and usually hosts the final round of the biathlon world cup in the middle-end of March. However it's still a bit early for lasting snow which is normally around the end of October and snow this week will only be temporary.

Regarding October snowcover in Siberia, it's clear that it has little influence on winter snow for the UK.

Edited October 1, 2012 by Interitus

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just to let people know, if ye use this link here, or many others around the web, you can make small animations instead of posting up every individual charts.

Like the one below for the Oct 1st snow cover.

It might make some of the posts a little easier to read.

[bobbydog]

Just to let people know, if ye use this link here, or many others around the web, you can make small animations instead of posting up every individual charts.

Like the one below for the Oct 1st snow cover.

It might make some of the posts a little easier to read.

bookmarked!