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Somerset Squall

Hurricane Gilma

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After a 3 week lull in activity, the seventh tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed, located at 14N 112W, several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. 07E has a small area of thunderstorms over the tight LLC. Conditions are favourable for strengthening, with low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. These conditions are expected to persist for a few days as the depression heads to the west-northwest. This should allow for 07E to at least become a high end tropical storm, and a hurricane can't be ruled out. In around 72hrs time, 07E will reach a drier, more stable airmass, inducing weakening after this point.

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07E has become Tropical Storm Gilma, with intensity now at 35kts. The storm has a small central dense overcast feature but little banding. Gilma is still expected to intensify in a favourable environment through 72hrs but is then forecast to weaken after that. Interesting to note also that Gilma is expected to possibly be dragged back eastwards in 4 to 5 days time as the weaking storm is steered by a low level westerly flow, possibly in relation to the remnants of Ernesto moving into the pacific.

IN

THE LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF

BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST

FROM 72-120 HR...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM

ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE

PACIFIC.

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Gilma has continued to strengthen, and now has sustained winds of 40kts. The storm has evolved from a circular ball of convection to a more banded storm as evidenced in satellite imagery. Convection remains deep over the centre, and if this rate of organisation continues then Gilma will easily become a hurricane prior to reaching the unfavourable environment.

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Gilma is nearly a hurricane, with sustained winds now at 60kts. A solid central dense overcast feature has formed with hints of an eye in satellite imagery. Gilma has about 36hrs left to intensify before reaching cooler water on the northwesterly track.

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Gilma has become the sixth out of seven storms to be a hurricane this season (only Aletta failed to make hurricane strength). Intensity is 65kts. Gilma may be near peak intensity as cooler waters and a drier airmass aren't far off, but there is a chance of perhaps a 5-10kt increase in intensity before weakening begins.

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Gilma peaked at 70kts this afternoon but has since weakened to 65kts. This could be due to an increase in shear which is tilting the MLC from the LLC. Gilma has slowed and turned to the north, and will move over cooler sea temps soon, accelerating the weakening trend. The weakened storm will then turn to the west in the low level easterly flow and dissipate in 4-5days time.

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Gilma has weakened quickly over colder waters and increased shear. Little or no convection resides with the LLC. I expect NHC will issue their last advisory this afternoon.

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