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Somerset Squall

Typhoon Haikui

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The West Pacific is on fire at the moment, with yet another tropical depression forming. 12W is located 70 miles south-southeast of the Japanese island of Iwo To. Intensity is 30kts. The depession's circulation is huge and is flanked by intense banding to the south. Stengthening should be slow at first due to the broad nature of the LLC, but once it has consolidated, the environment ahead is primed for the development of an intense typhoon. Shear is low and waters are very warm along the forceast path. JTWC are forecasting 12W to be a 110kt typhoon by day 5 which is very aggressive for a first forecast. 12W is expected to follow a similar path to Typhoon Damrey, albeit further south, as the same steering set up is in place (ridging to the north over mainland Japan).

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Look at this broad view from CIMSS for the West Pacific too! Shows Typhoon Damrey and Saola making landfall on Eastern China, 12W centre of image and perhaps another storm brewing east of TD 12W too. Active times for the West Pacific, and scary times for Eastern China and Taiwan too. A third landfalling typhoon on the cards for next week? One to watch.

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Tropical Depression 12W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Haikui, with intensity now at 35kts. As you can see by the image I posted above, this storm is HUGE. The system consists of a huge cyclonic gyre with only moderate convection over it, and a huge feeder band stretching back southwestwards towards the Philippines. As long as Haikui remains like this, strengthening will be slow. However, the conditions are so favourable ahead for Haikui that once it does consolidate into a smaller compact storm, it may well rapidly strengthen. Sea temps are warm, shear is low, and poleward outflow is expected to improve vastly over the coming days as mid-lattitude westerlies to the north vent the storm. Primary concern at the moment is the monsoonal band pulling northeastwards towards the huge centre of Haikui- it is likely to bring further flooding misery to the Philippines.

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Haikui has strengthened to 45kts. The storm has consolidated and shrank in size; additionally the convection has become more concentrated near the centre. This puts Haikui in good stead for further strengthening. The storm continues to head west-northwestward, and this motion should persist for the next day or so at least. Thereafter, it is still uncertain just where Haikui will go. The ridging to the north will come under attack by two troughs over the coming days and it is unclear just how they will affect the ridge. If either create a significant weakness in the ridge, then Haikui will head north. If not, Haikui will continue to head west into Eastern China. JTWC are leaning towards the latter solution, but with little confidence.

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Haikui has intensified but not as fast as originally anticipated. The intensity has risen to 55kts. Convection persists over the LLC with good banding to the south. Haikui should become a typhoon prior to landfall south of Shanghai, China. The ridging to the north is expected to remain fairly strong meaning the westwards track is expected to now persist.

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Haikui is now a 65kt cat 1 typhoon. A little additional strengthening is expected before landfall south of Shanghai in around 36hrs time. Looks to worsen the flooding situation which is quite severe across much of the east coast of China.

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This almost looks like Saola all over again. Haikui is bring heavy rains to the same areas as Saola did, though Taiwan to a slightly lesser extent. An outer band is proving heavy rains currently though here too.

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Shanghai in East China Braces for Typhoon Haikui

Shanghai and a nearby coastal province were hunkering down Tuesday for the arrival of the third typhoon to hit China in less than a week. Shanghai, the country's financial hub, planned to evacuate 200,000 people and the adjoining province of Zhejiang had already evacuated 130,000 people, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. It said more than 30,000 ships had rushed to shelter in ports.

The China Meteorological Administration expects Typhoon Haikui to land between coastal cities Ningbo and Wenzhou by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The National Meteorological Center issued an alert saying the typhoon will bring heavy rains and strong winds for 48 hours. Xinhua quoted the Zhejiang provincial observatory as saying the typhoon, which was located about 350 kilometers (220 miles) southeast of Taizhou city in the East China Sea on Tuesday morning, was packing winds as strong as 144 kph (89 mph).

The national meteorological center said Haikui was moving in a northwest direction at a speed of up to 15 kph (10 mph). China is still recovering from Typhoons Damrey and Saola, which hit over the weekend. Those storms brought heavy rains that killed 23 and left nine missing, Xinhua said Tuesday. Xinhua said the heavy rains that came with the typhoons triggered mudslides and flooding, affecting hundreds of thousands of people.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/shanghai-east-china-braces-typhoon-haikui-16945073#.UCDWX_ZlREM

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Hearing from a friend in Ningbo that conditions are very bad just now. It's the middle of the night there now so it will be a few hours before the situation regarding any damage becomes clearer.

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Hopefully damage will be kept to a minimum, still a dangerous storm but one saving grace is it didn't get as strong as the JTWC originally predicted. Haikui's centre/eye is currently making landfall right now. The video from westernpacificweather.com that Coast posted describes the dangers perfectly. Shanghai is in the front right quadrant of the storm (this is where the highest winds and surge are located).

post-1820-0-61038600-1344374473_thumb.jp

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The Chinese are taking this very seriously indeed!

Nearly 2 Million evacuated as Typhoon Haikui hits China

Aug 8 (Reuters) - Typhoon Haikui struck China on Wednesday, packing winds of up to 110 km per hour (68 mph), prompting officials to evacuate nearly 2 million people and grounding hundreds of flights to and from Shanghai and other cities.

More than 1.5 million people in the eastern province of Zhejiang and 252,000 residents of outlying parts of Shanghai were evacuated after Haikui landed early in the morning, causing flooding and stranding hundreds of people, the official Xinhua news agency reported. More than 500 domestic and international flights to and from Shanghai's two airports, Hongqiao and Pudong, have been cancelled as of 10:30 a.m. (0230 GMT), the Shanghai Airport Authority said on its microblogging account.

China's top three carriers - Air China , China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines Co Ltd - have also cancelled all flights to and from Hangzhou and Ningbo, both south of Shanghai, until noon, they said. No ships had been allowed in or out of Shanghai's ports, the world's busiest by container volume, since Tuesday night, an official at the Shanghai Water Authority said. Another key port in Ningbo, in Zhejiang province, has also been shut.

Some trains to and from Shanghai, the country's commercial hub, have also been cancelled. The city's financial markets remained open, however. By late evening, the centre of the typhoon is expected to have moved northwest although wet and windy conditions are likely to persist, according to Tropical Risk Storm's website www.tropicalstormrisk.com/. Haikui forced nearly 270,000 people in the Philippines to flee their homes, prompting authorities to close schools, financial markets and offices.

http://in.reuters.co...E8J827X20120808

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