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Somerset Squall

Typhoon Damrey

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Another tropical storm has formed about 200 miles east-northeast of Iwo To, Japan. TS Damrey has sustained winds of 35kts. Subtropical ridging to the north is expected to push Damrey westwards well south of mainland Japan. Strengthening will be slow at first as Damrey has formed in an area of moderate to high shear, but shear values are much lower further to the west which will allow Damrey to intensify more steadily as waters are warm.

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Damrey has remained practically stationary over the last 24hrs and has only strengthened slightly due to the effects of moderate shear. Intensity has crept up to 40kts. The storms circulation is partially exposed and what convection there is is quite shallow in nature. Upper level winds are expected to ease which should allow Damrey to strengthen as the storm picks up speed and heads westwards. The window for intensification may only be small however, as Damrey's motion will bring it closer to TS Saola, and the larger Saola's outflow will probably increase shear again over Damrey in a few days time. The westwards motion that will materialise is expected to persist and therefore Damrey will make landfall near Shanghai, China, in about 4-5 days time.

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Damrey has finally started moving towards the west, at a much faster pace. Track speeds have increased from an average of a 3kt crawl to a quicker than average 18kts. Ridging to the north has built strongly, causing this westward acceleration. Damrey has intensified only slightly to 45kts, and though the LLC is very well defined, convection is still pretty shallow in nature. Though poleward outflow is good, equatorward outflow is pretty much non-existant. The air surrounding Damrey is also pretty dry. The poleward outflow and warm sea temps are expected to allow Damrey to intensify modestly over the next day or so before the approach of Typhoon Saola significantly increases shear over Damrey prior to landfall north of Shanghai, China, in around 60hrs time.

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nasaseescomp.jpg

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Storm Damrey on July 29 at 11:21 p.m. EDT and the AIRS instrument captured an infrared image of the storm. It showed that strong, high, cold cloud tops of thunderstorms (purple) were in a tight circle around the center of circulation. Credit: Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen Tropical Storm Damrey appears to be a compact tropical storm on NASA satellite imagery as it heads west. It is expected to pass north of Iwo To, Japan and later south of Kyushu, one of Japan's large islands.

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Storm Damrey on July 30 at 03:21 UTC (July 29 at 11:21 p.m. EDT) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured an infrared image of the storm. It showed that strong, high, cold cloud tops of thunderstorms were in a tight circle around the center of circulation. There were bands of thunderstorms mostly north and east of the center of circulation. Some of the thunderstorm cloud tops were so high that they were as cold as -63 Fahrenheit/-52 Celsius. The circle of thunderstorms appears compact in the infrared imagery. Damrey formed as a depression on July 28. By July 30, Damrey reached tropical storm status. Damrey's maximum sustained winds were near 45 knots (51.7 mph/83.3 kmh) at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on July 30.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 50 nautical miles (57.5 miles/92.6 km) from the center, making the storm just over 100 miles (115 miles/185 km) in diameter. Damrey was located about 175 nautical miles (201.4 miles/324 km) east-northwest of Iwo To, near 26.3 North and 143.6 East. It is moving to the west-northwest at 5 knots (5.7 mph/9.2 kmh). Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect Damrey to track to the west-northwest over the next three days. It is currently expected to strengthen and then weaken before it makes landfall north of Shanghai, China on August 3.

http://phys.org/news/2012-07-nasa-compact-tropical-storm-damrey.html#jCp

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Damrey is a very compact storm with the majority of convection on the northern side. Intensity has risen to 55kts. Poleward outflow remains good but equatorward outflow is completely non-existant and will remain so as the storm gets nearer to Typhoon Saola to the southwest. Saola is likely to exert shear on Damrey, so the window for strengthening is small, especially as Damrey is also racing westwards towards landfall near Shanghai, China. The excellent poleward outflow and warm sea temps may allow Damrey to become a minimal typhoon prior to landfall; JTWC are expecting a peak of 65kts (cat 1 typhoon on SS scale).

post-1820-0-83309400-1343771003_thumb.jp

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Damrey is now a typhoon with sustained winds of 65kts. The storm has a well established central dense overcast with an eye appearing within it. Some modest intensification can't be ruled out for the next 24hrs but Damrey is likely near peak strength.

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Damrey has strengthened further to 70kts. The typhoon has done remarkably well given the proximity to the much larger Typhoon Saola. Surprisingly, this has not had much affect on Damrey. I believe there would have been more interaction between the two typhoons if Damrey wasn't moving so fast. Landfall is expected in around 12hrs time north of Shanghai, probably still at typhoon strength.

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Damrey peaked at 75kts and has now made landfall north of Shanghai, China. Damrey's fast forward speed will hopefully stop the rainfall totals from being too high as this area of the world really doesn't need any more rain. Damrey should soon dissipate as it continues to move inland.

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