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mezzacyclone

Major Hurricane Emilia

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Another fish but hot on Daniels tail likely becoming a TS.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE

SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF

TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST

FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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80%

TD within "a day or two" is quite conservative considering the current appearance and conditions as this could deepen rapidly and form by today`s end?

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97E has become the East Pacific's seasons fifth tropical depression this evening, well south of Mexico. Convection is persistant over the LLC, and banding features are already becoming impressive. It won't be long before 05E is a tropical storm. Shear is low and waters very warm, and NHC warn of the much higher than normal chance of rapid intensification. 05E shouldn't be an immediate threat to land however with a fairly typical west-northwesterly track out to sea expected (unlike Bud and Carlotta).

post-1820-0-86222000-1341701693_thumb.jp

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05E has become Tropical Storm Emilia, with intensity rising to 40kts. The storm is currently suffering as outflow from Major Hurricane Daniel impinges on the western quadrant of the circulation. Once Daniel weakens and moves away, Emilia should strengthen. Waters are very warm, and remain so along track for the next few days. Once the outflow improves again for Emilia, this, coupled with the low shear in the region, should provide the environment for Emilia to become a hurricane. In fact, the NHC are saying that major hurricane status cannot be ruled out.

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Emilia has strengthened to 55kts. Convection is much deeper than this morning and is wrapping well around the LLC. As Daniel has weakened and become smaller, it has stopped inflicting shear on Emilia. With the improved upper level environment and sea temperatures of 29C beneath Emilia, the storm looks poised to become a hurricane soon, and perhaps a potent one.

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MIAMI — Forecasters say Tropical Storm Emilia could soon become a hurricane, but the storm is not expected to threaten land.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Emilia was moving away from land over open ocean Sunday. It was 565 miles (909 kilometers) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were recorded at 65 mph (105 kph). Meanwhile, Hurricane Daniel was still swirling farther out at sea, but the storm is expected to weaken over the next couple of days.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/tropical-storm-emilia-forms-in-the-pacific-not-forecast-to-threaten-land/2012/07/07/gJQAZxe0UW_story.html

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Emilia is strengthening rapidly. Latest update from NHC has Emilia as a 65kt hurricane but since the update an increasingly well defined eye has appeared within the circular central dense overcast. I think Emilia is cat 2 intensity now, and it might not be long before the hurricane achieves major hurricane status.

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Just wondering, will the remnants of Daniel and Amelia develop into invests in the WPAC?

Obviously they will weaken, but some convection will surely remain, and then they maybe picked up again by the WPAC tropical cyclone paths?

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Just wondering, will the remnants of Daniel and Amelia develop into invests in the WPAC?

Obviously they will weaken, but some convection will surely remain, and then they maybe picked up again by the WPAC tropical cyclone paths?

It is unlikely. The same remnant low probably won't cross the whole of the Pacific though it is just about possible I suppose. Shear and or dry air will more than likely fully dissipate the LLC before it moves into the West Pacific. And of course there is the likelihood they will be absorbed by another weather system somewhere along the way.

Emilia has been upgraded, as I thought, to a cat 2 with intensity now at 85kts. Emilia is clearly not done with the bout of rapid intensification, and NHC forecast Emilia to be a 110kt cat 3 in as little as 12hrs. The hurricane has a well defined eye and strong banding flanking the healthy LLC. It'll be interesting to see just how strong Emilia gets before reaching cooler water. Thankfully, Emilia is staying away from land!

post-1820-0-10910900-1341857275_thumb.jp

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There are two hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific today, Daniel and Emilia. NASA's TRMM satellite passed over both storms in pinpointed the intensity of the rainfall within each storm, indicative of their power. Emilia is dropping rain at a greater rate than Daniel according to satellite data.

Tropical storm Daniel strengthened and became the third hurricane over the weekend, and today, Monday, July 9, Tropical Storm Emilia strengthened into the fourth hurricane of the season. Tropical storm Emilia formed on July 7 as tropical depression 5E and became a tropical storm on July 8. On July 9, Emilia is trailing Daniel by 645 miles in the eastern Pacific, as both storms continue to move away from land.

TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) data show a 3-D view of Daniel (looking from the west). This view shows that very little rainfall was present in the western side. This image also shows that most of Daniels structure was at lower levels. A few of the most powerful storms in the eastern side of Daniel's eye wall reached to heights of about 11km (~6.8 miles).

Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierc

666148main_20120709_Daniel-1TRMM_full.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Emilia.html

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Emilia has been upgraded, as I thought, to a cat 2 with intensity now at 85kts. Emilia is clearly not done with the bout of rapid intensification, and NHC forecast Emilia to be a 110kt cat 3 in as little as 12hrs.

Interesting how the 2pm advisory raised the 12hr cat4 probability chances to 39% from the 8am adv of just 19%?

Still most likely to reach cat3 at max but it`s got `em spooked?

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Interesting how the 2pm advisory raised the 12hr cat4 probability chances to 39% from the 8am adv of just 19%?

Still most likely to reach cat3 at max but it`s got `em spooked?

Indeed. Intensity change is very hard to predict but Emilia has a good shot at becoming a cat 4 by 12hrs time. Although Emilia has strengthened a little slower to 95kts at the last advisory, there is a very real chance of a jump of 30-40kts in intensity in the next 24hrs. Emilia is a well organised hurricane which is moving through an ideal environment of low shear, very warm sea temps and high moisture/instability. These factors favour rapid intensification.

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The reserved forecast`s continue to underestimate the intensity of Emilia, now 66% of Cat4 status within 12hrs and still a favorable 48% within 24hrs. The huge visible swathes of banding she had before circulation occurred certainly showed the potential when she was a TD and Daniel was the leading filly!

What with the conditions SS mentioned and 98E then this sure is Hurricane alley right now!

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And Emilia has done it. The hurricane is now a Major Hurricane and a cat 4, with intensity rising to 120kts. The eye has shrunk within the nearly circular central dense overcast, which indicates just how low the shear has been. Emilia may be peaking now however, as the major hurricane is moving over cooler waters and shear is beginning to rise. A general west-sorthwest to west track is expected throughout the remainder of Emilia's lifetime.

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Yep, she's a big girl now!

Hurricane Emilia strengthens to Category 4 storm

Hurricane Emilia has strengthened to a Category 4 storm as it swirls over the Pacific, far from land.

The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Tuesday are near 140 mph. Emilia is centered about 680 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California and is moving west-northwest near 12 mph. Farther west in the Pacific, Daniel has weakened to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. Daniel is centered about 1,440 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and is moving west near 16 mph.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/story/2012-07-10/Hurricane-Emilia-Pacific/56123142/1

http://youtu.be/PIzAvw_L7OU

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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 10

ssued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012 EMILIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C WRAPPING THE ENTIRE WAY AROUND THE EYE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED A DISTINCT EYE THAT WAS OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FREE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T5.5 OR 102 KT...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR T6.0 OR 115 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING EMILIA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. A WEAKENING TREND IS SHOWN THEREAFTER DUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 2 DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FROM DAY 3 TO 5. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMMON IN MATURE HURRICANES LIKE EMILIA. IF ONE OCCURS...IT WOULD LIKELY PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE IN THE INTENSITY EVOLUTION OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 13.3N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

ttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/100235.shtml

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Emilia has weakened as shear has risen. Intensity is currently 90kts, cat 2. Weakening should accelerate beyond 24hrs and cool waters join the shear against the hurricane.

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Emilia has made an unexpected comeback this evening. Intensity is back up to 100kts, as the eye becomes more distinct, embedded within a stronger central dense overcast. It appears shear may have temporairily eased which has allowed for the re-intensification. However, Emilia is running out of warm water on the west-northwesterly track, and shear is not expected to remain low for long. Weakening should recommence tomorrow.

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Emilia is refusing to weaken. Intensity is still at 100kts. This could be because Emilia is displaying the characteristics of an annular hurricane, which are more resilient to cool sea temps and shear. This means Emilia should weaken slowly as the track bends to the west. Waters remain cool along track so Emilia will eventually dissipate in several days time roughly where Daniel did.

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Cool waters and dry air have finally broken Emilia. Emilia is now a 45kt tropical storm which consists of a well defined LLC with very little associated convection bar one lone cell near the centre. As Emilia was a powerful hurricane at peak, the circulation will take a while to wind down as it heads westwards on a track almost straight along Daniel's path. Degeneration into a remnant low should occur in a day or two however, as convection struggles to develop in the dry air.

track.gif

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