Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[Gael_Force]

Wonder with how the Bejing Climate Center outlook is for July? as they were spot on with June with precipitation and temperature. Cannot wait to see Gavin P's outlook on how this month pans out. Agree with Summer Blizzard as the models are not looking inspiring at all and places may get very high rainfall totals indeed. Wonder if this developing el niño is making the Azores High weak? As that to me has some sort of detrement to it. By the way CFS, UKMO and ECM have all gone for a tougher niño now as the negative SOI's appear to have been a lot more noticeable and something we need to keep note on.

Run on 26/06 had first 3 weeks of July as cool and wet with 4th week showing warmer and drier weather, more so to the north of UK. New run tonight so we'll see if any change tomorrow.

[Alex]

Wonder with how the Bejing Climate Center outlook is for July? as they were spot on with June with precipitation and temperature. Cannot wait to see Gavin P's outlook on how this month pans out. Agree with Summer Blizzard as the models are not looking inspiring at all and places may get very high rainfall totals indeed. Wonder if this developing el niño is making the Azores High weak? As that to me has some sort of detrement to it. By the way CFS, UKMO and ECM have all gone for a tougher niño now as the negative SOI's appear to have been a lot more noticeable and something we need to keep note on.

Doubt it's down to el niño, if anything the atmosphere is acting like la Nina with low angular momentum and MJO in phase 1, the GWO is also still rather low although there are signs it has picked up recently.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

i wish i could bring good news but now to deep f1 the weather looking dire we could write off July already if we are not carefull

[Summer Sun]

Another dire run from GFS this morning with no sign what so ever of summer weather

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

UKMO is just as bad, north west scotland may be about the only place which ecsapes the worst of the rain

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=meto;sess=

ECM's run is unsettled as well, this is backed up by its ensemble

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

[Nick F]

Yep, looking more and more inevitable for a cool and unsettled first half of July. Strong height rises over the N Atlantic towards Greenland and Iceland and ridging across SE/E Europe up into Wern Russia keeping low pressure locked close to the UK, ECM looking even more depressing when the trough edges east to allow a long draw northerly around the 10th.

No doubt high pressure will arrive in late September into early October, lol.

[shedhead]

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204

i wish i could bring good news but now to deep f1 the weather looking dire we could write off July already if we are not carefull

I have tb. Impossible to see any way out of this mess at all as things currently stand, GFS looks even worse in the longer term, with the Greeny High back in place (not that it ever goes anywhere) and the Jetstream bowling system after system right at us. I suspect many who questioned the wisdom of holding an Olympic Games here given our climate will be proven right, because IF the T+384hr were to verify there's no way things will settle down in time.

[tinybill]

I have tb. Impossible to see any way out of this mess at all as things currently stand, GFS looks even worse in the longer term, with the Greeny High back in place (not that it ever goes anywhere) and the Jetstream bowling system after system right at us. I suspect many who questioned the wisdom of holding an Olympic Games here given our climate will be proven right, because IF the T+384hr were to verify there's no way things will settle down in time.

looking forward to the volleyball in the rain!!

[Uncle_Barty]

No doubt high pressure will arrive in late September into early October, lol.

That is akin to scoring a goal in the 4th minute of injury time at the end of the match. When you are already 5-0 down....

[TonyH]

I can't help but feel that GFS is not yet picking up on how wet this week could be, except for certain areas such as west Wales, where I should look forward to a good 3 inches or so!

Other areas liable to very large falls too with downpours and longer slow moving periods of rain around with this extremely stubborn low.

Edited July 2, 2012 by TonyH

[shedhead]

looking forward to the volleyball in the rain!!

As they say, every cloud has a silver lining...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Good agreement on sunshine and showers for Tuesday-Friday following a cloudier day today with some rain. There is potential for some more thundery activity, particularly in northern parts of England, especially so on Wednesday which may produce a lesser version of what we had last Thursday. Temperatures are likely to be close to the seasonal norm, typically within the range of 18-22C. Sunshine amounts are quite hard to pin down though- sometimes these setups feature a fair amount of sun in between the showers, particularly in the east, but with low pressure close by and the UK lying at the downwind end of the Atlantic, weak fronts and banks of cloud are always possible.

Disagreement continues between the GFS and the UKMO/ECM from the weekend onwards. The GFS keeps the trough "in situ" giving sunshine and showers, the showers heavy and thundery in the north-east. The UKMO/ECM again have the trough drifting away to the E/SE bringing most parts of the country a chilly north to north-easterly flow. Under this, the weather would probably turn drier, sunnier in the west but cloudier in the east, with temperatures falling below the seasonal norm.

The longer-term signals look dodgy for anything particularly warm or sunny with the Azores High ridging into the mid-Atlantic and a stubborn persistence of high pressure up to the north, encouraging a North Sea trough to fill in the gap; dryness also looks more doubtful the further south and east you are.

[Weather Boy]

My Goodness, what a shocking set of runs. It really is a case of no hope for the foreseeable future, with the LP anchored on or about our shores past the weekend bristling with frontal systems to bring dull and wet weather for the vast majority of places (especially in the south) for the vast majority of time.

This is not intended to be any comfort at all, as the models are very consistent, but I find it hard to believe that it is going to be quite as bad as the models would have us believe, especially the ECM which seems to have the LP retrogressing towards us just when it seems to have almost got out of the way towards Denmark.

If there is any straw to clutch, I'd say that it seems likely that the eventual outcome is a build of pressure from the Atlantic where it waits in the wings forever, but given that that looks so far off anything could happen by the time we are looking out.

A thoroughly and universally depressing outlook the likes of which I don't think I've seen before. Let's hope future model runs bring some hope, as they must do eventually!

Disagreement continues between the GFS and the UKMO/ECM from the weekend onwards. The GFS keeps the trough "in situ" giving sunshine and showers, the showers heavy and thundery in the north-east. The UKMO/ECM again have the trough drifting away to the E/SE bringing most parts of the country a chilly north to north-easterly flow. Under this, the weather would probably turn drier, sunnier in the west but cloudier in the east, with temperatures falling below the seasonal norm.

Except that, cruelly, the ECM actually brings the trough back from the east! However, that is probably FI enough as not to be considered a serious player at this time (I hope).

[Frank Trough]

I have tb. Impossible to see any way out of this mess at all as things currently stand, GFS looks even worse in the longer term, with the Greeny High back in place (not that it ever goes anywhere) and the Jetstream bowling system after system right at us. I suspect many who questioned the wisdom of holding an Olympic Games here given our climate will be proven right, because IF the T+384hr were to verify there's no way things will settle down in time.

in that case i guess we should see a backtrack in time from the Meto extended outlook which at present does offer some hope for the second half of july. they seem to favour a scenario which was shown by a couple of recent ECM runs which shows the atlantic ridge eventually pushing over the UK.

That said, my leave for the third week of july will be cancelled in due course i think! Better to hope for something in early august i think.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The one point that I'm not sure about is the emphasis on dull and wet weather for this coming week. Low pressure usually means rain or showers, but it does not always entail a significant shortage of sunshine- slack slow-moving lows, if associated with a minimum of frontal activity, can bring a fair amount of sunshine mixed with slow-moving thundery showers. I remember quite a number of individual weeks dominated by low pressure which came out on Philip Eden's Climate-uk stats as quite sunny with near average rainfall, though it is rare for low pressure to dominate for most of a calendar month without also having some spells where frontal depressions give frequent dull wet weather.

I'm not going to stick my neck out and say that this week will definitely be warmer, sunnier and possibly drier than many people expect, because cloud amounts are hard to pin down, but I think there's a good chance that many of the doomsayers might be pleasantly surprised by what we actually get over the next few days following today's cloudiness. I don't deny that the longer-term outlook is scarily reminiscent of what we got used to during most of June though.

[swebby]

.....................Except that, cruelly, the ECM actually brings the trough back from the east! However, that is probably FI enough as not to be considered a serious player at this time (I hope).

Proper northerly fetch on that, i suspect that would keep the forum busy if this was spotted in Dec-Mar. As you say, a long way off but one possible crumb of comfort is that i think TWS has previously described these types of summer northerlies as being potentially quite sunny with thundery showers?

Edited July 2, 2012 by swebby

[Thundery wintry showers]

Between October and April a northerly type will more often than not bring sunshine and showers, but in summer it's trickier to achieve that as it relies upon us getting a largely unmodified arctic maritime airmass from the N/NW, promoting unstable air and the characteristic mix of sun and showers. In summer, any sort of modification from continental air from the east tends to make the airmass more stable (as continental air is fundamentally dry and, in the summer half-year, it is warm in the upper layers of the atmosphere) and promotes extensive stratocumulus trapped under an inversion due to the long track over the moist North Sea. Hence a lot of summer northerlies end up cool and cloudy rather than bright and showery, though sometimes relatively dry.

With the emphasis being on a north to north-easterly flow coming off Scandinavia I feel that the northerlies showing on UKMO/ECM would probably be of the cool cloudy variety, and if slow moving fronts get draped around the trough to the east, it can end up pretty wet for some as well.

[swebby]

Thanks for the clarification TWS. In that case all the more reason to hope it is FI nonsense.

[johnholmes]

I doubt its FI nonsense;

what I can see of upper air pattern suggests that the upper flow for the great majority of time in the 7-15 and probably longer time scale is going to north of not south of west. A VERY small prob possible of it being east of south but less than 20% and it would only be something for 2-3 days.

Beyond mid July and most guidance seems to suggest no major pattern chnge is likely although at this range it is pretty hard to get solid support for this view.

A possibility that some parts MAY get a more summery spell before the month end. Even more difficult is trying to suggest which area?

SW west or NW are perhaps the more favoured parts?

Edited July 2, 2012 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Just had a look through the Gfs 06z and it looks unsettled all the way through with precipitation on every single day or night or both. We really are stuck in a rut and the pattern is showing no sign of changing even in the depths of FI. The gfs 06z and Ecm 00z are very similar in FI with a cooler NE'ly or N'ly which is not what most of us want to see in the height of summer but that is what it shows, high pressure wasted in the atlantic and low pressure to the northeast. We all know that for the uk to have good summer weather, we need the azores high to ridge up towards the uk and then migrate into scandinavia and help create a blocking pattern with the jet much further north and low pressure close to biscay with a very warm SSE'ly flow but we are currently a million miles from seeing a sustained warm dry spell.

[Summer Sun]

Another dire update from the 06z GFS, its good for ducks but thats about it

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[shedhead]

The one point that I'm not sure about is the emphasis on dull and wet weather for this coming week. Low pressure usually means rain or showers, but it does not always entail a significant shortage of sunshine- slack slow-moving lows, if associated with a minimum of frontal activity, can bring a fair amount of sunshine mixed with slow-moving thundery showers. I remember quite a number of individual weeks dominated by low pressure which came out on Philip Eden's Climate-uk stats as quite sunny with near average rainfall, though it is rare for low pressure to dominate for most of a calendar month without also having some spells where frontal depressions give frequent dull wet weather.

I'm not going to stick my neck out and say that this week will definitely be warmer, sunnier and possibly drier than many people expect, because cloud amounts are hard to pin down, but I think there's a good chance that many of the doomsayers might be pleasantly surprised by what we actually get over the next few days following today's cloudiness. I don't deny that the longer-term outlook is scarily reminiscent of what we got used to during most of June though.

Doomsayers seems a very strange name to come up with, given every comment on here has simply reflected the dire model outputs. OK given a bit of luck some of us may well see more in the way of sunshine at times this week, but to my mind your so called doomsayers are actually just realists, who are simply commenting on exactly what is in front of them.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This is really getting into semantics. If we take broken cloud, sunny intervals, scattered sharp showers and 21C, and compare with overcast, wet, windy and 15C, it's possible to lump the two together as unsettled dross, but the former is somewhat more conducive to many outdoor activities than the latter, and so it's worth making the distinction in case people are reading this thread and wondering if it's worth planning an outdoor picnic on Thursday lunchtime. Some parts of the south-east in particular may well be predominantly dry and sunny from Tuesday to Friday with the winds off the English Channel inhibiting convection, and people reading all the despairing posts would get the impression of a dull rainy outlook for those areas.

[TonyH]

Well not sure about tomorrow being showers and sunshine TWS with about half a dozen fronts crossing Wales and England, looks a total washout.

Edited July 2, 2012 by TonyH

[Thundery wintry showers]

A close look at tomorrow revals regional variation- it looks like a case of showers and sunshine for Scotland and northern England in a gap in between fronts, while southern England is likely to start off dry and fairly bright in the east but with some more organised rain coming into the SW towards midday associated with the fronts, and then heading across other southern areas later in the day. The rain then clears overnight Tuesday/Wednesday which allows a bright showery regime to establish over much of the country for the rest of the working week, with many areas close to the south and south-east missing the majority of the showers- although sunshine and showers is not a certainty at this range due to the potential for embedded fronts to turn up at short notice.

But I do stand behind the overall point that I am making- many posts imply that most parts will be dull and wet for most of the week, and the current model outputs don't really reflect that.

[TonyH]

Agreed we can get low pressure over the country and it turns out not too bad some days, however this week has the look of a very wet one for most, some very heavy slow moving downpours Wednesday onwards, and the potential for more widespread events to develop in the shorter time-frame, I am actually quite concerned from a flooding POV with England and Wales just having had the wettest ever April to June period, and no let up from potential heavy rainfall events. I just hope your outlook TWS proves closer to the mark, otherwise, flooding will be making the headlines again mid week onwards, perhaps even for more of us than have already experienced it?

Edited July 2, 2012 by TonyH