Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Darren Bown]

I'm impressed with those charts! Slap bang on my location, even possible that I could catch a storm before my shift at 1:30pm

[Paul]

If anyone is planning to chase this week and has mobile net access/webcam etc, we can get you plugged into our live streaming system if you're interested - please drop me a pm if you'd like to discuss..

Also, anyone who has any footage - it would be great to feature it on the site, we can even look to get you plugged into our media partner scheme which is just about ready to launch now. (To those who contacted us when we announced the scheme, we'll be in touch very soon).

Cheers

Paul

[NUT]

Humidity is getting up here quite a bit. The ingredients go together on thursday? (possibly tomorrow but perhaps not as widespread a scale as thursday) could be very interesting but all has to mix together

[Paul]

Humidity is getting up here quite a bit.

Decent increase in dewpoints behind the front today:

And the NMM has them climbing nicely tomorrow too:

So definitely some juicy air about in the next 48 hours, whether it'll spark is another question though.

[GadgetWeatherFreak]

Fog is decending on the marsh, very eerie

[Liam J]

Significant upgrades on the 12z, that'll do me just fine as long as we can maintain or even exceed this over the next 24 hours! To much to ask?

Much more of the UK would be in the firing line on current outputs even as far west as Northern Ireland, big shift west!

Edited June 26, 2012 by Liam J

[Staffordshire]

Think you're playing down the potential here, BF. The hodograph for Birmingham for between 12-15z is nicely curved, given backed surface winds (albeit not especially light, but light enough) ahead of the CF/pre-frontal shortwave trough and complete veering of flow throughout the depth of the profile. Combined with a moderately unstable, moisture-rich PBL, the setup looks favourable for the development of multicell clusters, line segments with updraft/downdraft seperation, and rotating updrafts.

Concerns for me, atm, would be insolation, lack of a real punch of dry air in the mid levels, as well as not-so-steep lapse rates.

MCS, in a line over bham?! and extending from where? Cheers!

[A.J]

Hello all, just got in from work, and I just want to let you all know that I'm looking forward to this plume event...Forget it the SE, you guys are getting nothing!..It's the west midlands turn now boyos, & the weather gods have decreed that this plume event will now and forever be known as 'EL BRUMO'

[Kain]

Just hope it makes as far west as Shropshire!!!! Brum is still easterners to me

Edited June 26, 2012 by Kain

[Arnie Pie]

mmmmm.....gives me an idea

[Supercell 89]

Feeling very juicy here at the moment. 17C dew point and an air temp of 18c, 93% Humidity. Hoping for some action tomorrow evening/night but will have to wait and see

[Darren Bown]

Air temp here has increased over the last hour from 16C to 18C DP of 15.1C (up from 13C)

[camiscool]

Oh the irony of the west thinking the east get storms I haven't had one this year or for years....

[Cloud 10]

12z NAE has some encouragingly high dew-points for thursday which are similar to gfs values.

For any of you storm lovers who are maybe getting a little excited at the moment.

Ladies and gentlemen,please welcome Mr Conway Twitty.

[Deluxe]

I so was going to have my username as Conway Twitty on Lewis' new forum

Surprised at the GFS upgrade to be honest, I think there will be a slight eastward shift again on the evening models, but not much.

[Wet'n'Dry]

Conway Twitty?????

I'm flying out from Gatwick on Friday morning at 6am. Is this plume going to give me an interesting ride?

Edited June 26, 2012 by Wet'n'Dry

[Costa Del Fal]

Conway Twitty?????

I'm flying out from Gatwick on Friday morning at 6am. Is this plume going to give me an interesting ride?

No, it will all be well over by then.

[Andy Bown]

Concerns for me, atm, would be insolation, lack of a real punch of dry air in the mid levels, as well as not-so-steep lapse rates.

Insolation isn't always important. On 25th June 2005 a trailing Cold Front moved into similar conditions as we have building in the next 24 or so hours

and delivered numerous storms to the West Country from before sunrise (1st storm here at 04.00) - with the intensity and frequency increasing as the

sun rose and lasting throughout the morning.

It is going to be very interesting to see if things begin to kick off overnight into Thursday or whether there is a response to the sun rising, which of

course happens very early anyway.

The national forecast on BBC made absolutely no mention of Wednesday night whereas our local forecaster Ian Fergusson showed showers breaking

out by tomorrow late evening and mentioned a thundery rush hour on Thursday morning.

[Wet'n'Dry]

No, it will all be well over by then.

I hope so, my wife isn't a great fan of flying!

Edited June 26, 2012 by Wet'n'Dry

[Norfolk Sheep]

All this to-ing and fro-ing west......east.....west......arggghh!! If things stay as they are then the true East will be stuffed yet again. It's enough to drive you to drink......

[Liam J]

A few charts from the 12z GFS, have to say things are looking very interesting come Thursday afternoon....

Dew points - Very high for many!

700hpa Vertical vorticity (look at NW England)

Vertical vorticity

Shear

Cape

SLP & precipitation

Humidity 2m

Edited June 26, 2012 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Pretty confident I'll miss out here again. Probably see black clouds heading off towards Leeds or Barnsley or Sunny Donny. The hills to the south will do there normal blocking job.

[Lewis]

A few charts from the 12z GFS, have to say things are looking very interesting come Thursday afternoon....

Dew points - Very high for many!

700hpa Vertical vorticity (look at NW England)

Vertical vorticity

Shear

Cape

SLP & precipitation

Humidity 2m

Thanks for posting them charts mate.

You looking forward to this weeks potential then?

[AWD]

Some views from Ian and Matt here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73534-weather-tweets/page__pid__2323343#entry2323343

[Lewis]

Massive upgrade for NW areas on the 12z output for Thursday - Lewis

We see a delay on the approaching CF from the West, with a high amount of CAPE and a negative Lifted Index and lifting this will spark storms off quite readily across NW parts of England and West Yorkshire.

As we head on through the day during thursday the risk extends further east and north eastwards, as the CF pushes through the energy will transfer eastwards.

Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and parts of the East Midlands looks the areas at greatest risk.

Further SE across England it looks to be drier, with some home grown cells expected to fire up, as for Southern most counties some imports are likely along with Kent and the far SE later on in the day.

As the cold front moves through, areas behind will destabilize fairly quickly. Dew points are expected to be around the 17-18c mark.

Any areas that see prolonged sunshine will see home grown cells firing up, where CIN levels are favorable.

There is also a large upgrade on storm potential for much of England tomorrow (Wednesday), more so for Eastern areas, with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg and a Lifted Index of around -4.

Storms may become slow moving, giving torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and hail. Flash flooding is a possibility.

A video forecast will be made shortly, and I will continue to update forecasts when models update, we are coming in to range now with the higher resolution models (NMM and NAE) which will give a better indication as to which areas are more likely to see any thunderstorm development.