Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Harry]

I think I may be the only one, but I can see absolutely nothing to get excited about for my particular area. It looks like being a west misses out and 40 miles east bags it all again. Highly infuriating now.

From where I'm sitting, it doesnt look too sad for the Staffs area...wait and see what happens my man!

Edited June 26, 2012 by Harry

[Darren Bown]

Anywhere could get anything at the moment. Certainly not writing it off, but certainly not being overly optimistic! At least if I don't get any storms here this summer, then at least I should see some when I go to Florida again in September.

[Costa Del Fal]

Im certainly not giving up yet. GFS 06z isnt too bad. Im surprised to see that the models dont look like giving the SE much however its all in the balance and with regards to possible Thunderstorms, anything could happen.

Doesnt look to be an awful lot tomorrow afternoon though despite some good instability.

[Bluebreezer54]

Well I am preparing myself for a chase within a 50 mile radius of here ( Northwood )...in the next couple of days. Fingers crossed it all goes boom !!

[Harry]

Im certainly not giving up yet. GFS 06z isnt too bad. Im surprised to see that the models dont look like giving the SE much however its all in the balance and with regards to possible Thunderstorms, anything could happen.

Doesnt look to be an awful lot tomorrow afternoon though despite some good instability.

I've attacked GFS before in the past for it's apparent dislike of the SE and tbh it's quite often been spot on (that said it has quite often been wrong too, with sometimes the SE bagging all glory when GFS suggested we had least chance).

It's such a messy setup guys you really have to be patient IMO!!

[staplehurst]

The consistent signals amongst all the models for several days have been for the capping to be too strong from south Norfolk southwards on Thursday afternoon/evening, with the destabilisation occurring over the Southern North Sea and BeNeLux.

Late tomorrow night/Thursday AM is probably the SE's best chance of a few rumbles as mid level showers move across the Channel, clearing by Thursday lunchtime.

Thus main focus will always be for NE England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk/Cambs for thunderstorms both tomorrow afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

[Staffordshire]

Slight westward shift on 12z?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Looks better

[Hodgheg]

Looks like a bit of an upgrade to me

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Big westward shift on 12z

fixed

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, 12z is a bit better, especially for the Midlands and NW on Thursday imo. However, please expect further changes. This is no where near the end of the changes yet.

Edited June 26, 2012 by Blizzards

[Stuart]

stil look like no go here for storms up here

Edited June 26, 2012 by Stuart

[Darren Bown]

Any charts of particular interest?

[AWD]

I think the 12z is an upgrade for pretty much all of England. Even my location has a little potential with those charts, admittedly on the edge though.

Wont take much for others to get involved and equally, those currently in the firing line to miss out.

[Aaron]

Nice..

[PolarWarsaw]

Has someone been playing Battleships with that chart? Never seen so many red crosses ever!

[Alex95]

The 12z gives very good storm chances to northern and western areas as well as the SE - conditions look particularly ripe on this run in the Midlands, the South East and Northern Ireland.

Tomorrow also looks pretty good for a rash of showers in England, Wales and Ireland, and I expect that some of these will turn thundery later in the day. Everyone is focusing on Thursday, but tomorrow could deliver a storm for some, and this isn't subject to change.

Edited June 26, 2012 by Alza

[Eskimo]

Nice..

:o

[Kain]

12z is kinda awesome for us in the west, it's hard to not feel slightly excited...but you know how these things change at a drop of a hat.

quietly confident though!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Nice..

OK Aaron...what did you do with the maps?

[Evening thunder]

The consistent signals amongst all the models for several days have been for the capping to be too strong from south Norfolk southwards on Thursday afternoon/evening, with the destabilisation occurring over the Southern North Sea and BeNeLux.

Late tomorrow night/Thursday AM is probably the SE's best chance of a few rumbles as mid level showers move across the Channel, clearing by Thursday lunchtime.

Thus main focus will always be for NE England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk/Cambs for thunderstorms both tomorrow afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

What about the SW and Wales on Wednesday night into Thursday? Some of the models/charts posted today on page 2/3 show some very heavy and probably thundery looking stuff breaking out across those areas in that time frame.

[Harry]

The consistent signals amongst all the models for several days have been for the capping to be too strong from south Norfolk southwards on Thursday afternoon/evening, with the destabilisation occurring over the Southern North Sea and BeNeLux.

Late tomorrow night/Thursday AM is probably the SE's best chance of a few rumbles as mid level showers move across the Channel, clearing by Thursday lunchtime.

Thus main focus will always be for NE England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk/Cambs for thunderstorms both tomorrow afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

Staplehurst, I struggle with the concept that a 'cap' is going sustain an onslaught from both a trough and a CF....surely either will simply erode the cap leading potentially to more intense thunderstorms?

Something really not reading correctly with these charts IMO - I'm at the moment sitting tightly with my fingers crossed that this is all GFS' propensity to leave Kesurex out of the action yet pile opportunities for the environs.

Incidentally, I can honestly say I have never seen so many red t'storm icons on that forecast map before

[Keraunic]

My aching head is my best indicator that summat is lurking around. Oooooch:(

[staplehurst]

Staplehurst, I struggle with the concept that a 'cap' is going sustain an onslaught from both a trough and a CF....surely either will simply erode the cap leading potentially to more intense thunderstorms?

Something really not reading correctly with these charts IMO - I'm at the moment sitting tightly with my fingers crossed that this is all GFS' propensity to leave Kesurex out of the action yet pile opportunities for the environs.

Incidentally, I can honestly say I have never seen so many red t'storm icons on that forecast map before

True, but the upper trough is well away to the west, with a nose at 850mb of much warmer temps. Granted, if we can generate a shortwave then that holds potential to hopefully break the cap, but most models are reluctant to break the cap given the inversion in place. By the time the cold front arrives the main axis of instability is over the North Sea...

[Harry]

True, but the upper trough is well away to the west, with a nose at 850mb of much warmer temps. Granted, if we can generate a shortwave then that holds potential to hopefully break the cap, but most models are reluctant to break the cap given the inversion in place. By the time the cold front arrives the main axis of instability is over the North Sea...

:cray:

Indeed....these are the fine details that will shift all the time up until the event.

Wow this is exciting stuff!!