Tropical Storm Debby

[Cookie]

State of emergency declared in Louisiana

http://www.katc.com/news/state-of-emergency-called-for-tropical-storm-debby/

[Iceberg]

wow just got in to look at some of the recon and found the below. pressure dropping, inner core developing, surface winds of at least 53kts, flight winds of 78kts.

It all supports a 55kt TS maybe even 60kt so not far off hurricane atm.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012

A. 24/17:30:30Z

B. 28 deg 20 min N

085 deg 59 min W

C. 850 mb 1356 m

D. 53 kt

E. 347 deg 62 nm

F. 053 deg 70 kt

G. 349 deg 78 nm

H. 993 mb

I. 11 C / 1832 m

J. 18 C / 1827 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 23 CCA

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 78 KT NW QUAD 17:56:00Z

[Iceberg]

visual imagery shows that the shear which has prevented the full wrap has lessen in the last 30 mins of the loop at the same time as the centre has just started a slight westward movement, if strengthening to a hurricane is going to occur then its likely to occur tonight.

[Iceberg]

The closest bouy to Debby (situated just outside the closest central band) is recording sub 1000mb pressure

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42036&meas=wdpr&uom=M&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

IF we assume a normal pressure gradient then it indicates that the Debby is strengthening and is around 990mb now (guess), it will be interesting to see what the bouy records as Debby moves away.

[Cookie]

Nice video

[Ross B]

Currently just south of Orlando with very heavy rain and a tornado warning as an isolated supercell has just popped up ahead of a squall line moving north.

Heading south west tomorrow to ft. Myers area, will see if I get lucky enough to see a waterspout!!

[Iceberg]

Debby is very poorly this morning, with dry air. Shes got a good circulation though and is stationary so from here could do anything

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Debby stalls in Gulf of Mexico, lashing nearby states

Tropical Storm Debby threatened to spawn more tornadoes Monday as the stationary cyclone pummeled the Gulf Coast with fierce winds and heavy rain. The storm has already killed at least one person after apparent tornadoes struck central Florida, officials said. And with Debby coming to a standstill in the northern Gulf of Mexico, states surrounding the sprawling storm could endure fierce winds and intense rainfall for days.

As of late Sunday night, Debby was located about 110 miles from the southern tip of the Florida panhandle and about 200 miles east-southeast of the Mississippi River delta, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm packed maximum sustained winds of almost 60 mph, and tropical storm-force winds, those 39 mph or stronger, extended 200 miles out from its center. Debby is expected to dump a total of 10 to 15 inches of rain over the Florida panhandle and northern Florida, with isolated amounts of up to 25 inches, the hurricane center said. "Given the recent heavy rainfall and wet soil conditions, these additional amounts will exacerbate the flash flood threat across portions of northern Florida and southern Alabama," the weather agency said.

On Sunday, two apparent twisters destroyed four homes in Florida's Highland County, said Gloria Rybinski, emergency operations spokeswoman for the county. A woman was found dead in a home in Venus, located in the middle of the state roughly between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota, Rybinski said. In Madeira Beach, about 10 miles east of St. Petersburg, Flordia, Debbie Ponceti said her front lawn has been reduced to mush and the water in a lagoon near her house was steadily rising. There had been no let up in the rain, which is forecast to continue through Tuesday.

"Typically when a thunderstorm happens, it is over in 20 minutes," Ponceti said Sunday. "But this has been going on all day."

In nearby Redington Beach, Keri Ann Eversole said winds appeared to be blowing between 40 to 50 mph. "The rain was coming down sideways," Eversole said. "(It) felt like glass."

A forecast track showed Debby remaining a tropical storm as it eventually moves northward and makes landfall, possibly Thursday, on the Florida panhandle. But forecasters warned Debby's track remained uncertain and said the "new official track remains a low-confidence forecast." The storm has raised concerns for those working on 596 manned oil and gas production platforms throughout the Gulf, run by various companies. One of them, Shell, said Sunday that it had evacuated 360 staff the previous day and was planning further evacuations. ExxonMobil said it has "evacuated nonessential personnel" from its offshore facilities and is preparing to evacuate the rest.

And BP spokesman Brett Clanton said Sunday evening that the company has evacuated the "majority of our offshore personnel in the Gulf of Mexico" due to Debby. "Those unable to be evacuated will shelter in place for the storm," he said. In Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana's southernmost parish, authorities used baskets and tubes to keep Highway 23, the parish's main evacuation and emergency route, free of water should the 4-foot levees be topped, said Billy Nungesser, parish president. The levees were being sandbagged as an additional precaution

"We want to be ahead of that as a precautionary measure," Nungesser said. The area is forecast to get a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet, he said. "With a direct hit, if it goes up a little bit more, we'll have those levees topped."

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/25/us/tropical-weather/index.html

[mezzacyclone]

Touch and go then regarding Debby re-organising herself so all eyes on flight 2`s recon in just under 2½ hrs time (6:45am EDT)

[knocker]

The current position and status.

[Ross B]

I've made it down to captiva island through some incredible rainfall with lots of cars in the ditches.

Lots of coastal flooding as well, going to head over to the beach shortly To take some photos.

[Methuselah]

Keep us posted, Ross. And stay safe!

[Ross B]

Thanks Pete - will get the photos tomorrow as a downpour came on as I headed out to the beach. The beach is very badly eroded with only a small portion left to walk on and there are huge waves knocking against it. Looks like there will be plenty of time as Debby isn't going anywhere fast...

[Somerset Squall]

Debby is inching eastwards very slowly. After a period of very little convection associated with Debby, a flare up has occured north and northeast of the LLC. Intensity is 40kts. Little change in strength is expected as Debby crawls towards Florida. Debby is expected to survive it's passage over Florida and emerge off the east coast. Some re-strengthening is then expected over water east of Florida. So, kudos to GFS which stuck to it's guns on the eastward track when most of the other models were insisting on an westwards track through the Gulf.

Edited June 25, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[knocker]

Debby is inching eastwards very slowly. After a period of very little convection associated with Debby, a flare up has occured north and northeast of the LLC. Intensity is 40kts. Little change in strength is expected as Debby crawls towards Florida. Debby is expected to survive it's passage over Florida and emerge off the east coast. Some re-strengthening is then expected over water east of Florida. So, kudos to GFS which stuck to it's guns on the eastward track when most of the other models were insisting on an westwards track through the Gulf.

Intensity is 40kts. Are we not in danger of getting a tad over the top over this. Looking at the NAM prredictions, nothing great. After all, 40kts is a gentle breeze.

Edited June 26, 2012 by knocker

[Coast]

Already deluged by a stubborn cyclone that wouldn't move, northern Florida could get another 6 to 12 inches of rain over the next two days as Tropical Storm Debby hovers in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm could also produce isolated tornadoes across Florida on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

As of Tuesday morning, Debby was centered about 90 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, the weather agency said. The sprawling storm was creeping east at 4 mph, packing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph along the way. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida from Mexico Beach to Englewood. The center of Debby will move over northern Florida in the next day or two, the hurricane center said Tuesday.

"Isolated storm total amounts of 25 inches are possible in north Florida," the weather agency said. In addition to drenching northern Florida, Debby is expected leave an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain across central Florida and far southeastern Georgia as well as 3 to 5 inches in southern Florida and far southeastern South Carolina. USCG airlifts pets, people to safety Tropical Storm Debby hits Florida Debby spawns tornadoes in Florida Debby produces waterspout The cyclone has stalled multiple times in the Gulf of Mexico, dumping up to 5 inches of rain per hour on parts of the Florida Panhandle.

Magalie Caragiorgio said Monday that she had been stuck in her home in New Port Richey, near St. Petersburg, since Sunday because of flooding and hasn't been able to get to her job as a nurse. "It's unnerving because you can't do anything," she said. "I guess I wasn't prepared. I wasn't expecting to be flooded out like this." The storm already has been blamed for one death in Venus, Florida, about 100 miles southeast of Tampa, when a woman died while trying to shelter her 3-year-old daughter during a tornado Sunday. That twister struck Heather Town's home and flung the 32-year-old about 200 feet into the surrounding woods, the Highlands County Sheriff's Office said Monday.

Neighbors found her still cradling her 3-year-old daughter, who was being treated at a Tampa hospital. "She never let go of her little one even in death," Highland County Sheriff Susan Benton said. Another twister hit St. Pete Beach on Sunday night. Laura Miller wedged herself between her refrigerator and a kitchen pantry as the tornado passed. "We heard the proverbial noise, the train," Miller said. "The transformer blew, the windows started busting out. It was just very chaotic, all the glass flying, the debris flying into the house. It was pretty intense."

Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency Monday "so we can coordinate the use of all state resources to make sure we can respond promptly if anything happens." Debby has followed an unpredictable path since forming over the weekend. Storm warnings once stretched as far west as Morgan City, Louisiana, before shifting eastward on Sunday afternoon and Monday. That raised concerns for crews working on 596 manned oil and gas production platforms throughout the Gulf, run by various companies.

Shell, BP and ExxonMobil began evacuating workers from offshore rigs on Sunday, but BP and Shell had made plans to return to those platforms as Debby turned toward Florida.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/26/us/tropical-weather/index.html

[knocker]

Still more heavy rain for Florida where flood warnings abound.

[Somerset Squall]

Intensity is 40kts. Are we not in danger of getting a tad over the top over this. Looking at the NAM prredictions, nothing great. After all, 40kts is a gentle breeze.

The wind is only half the story though. Wind, not much of a problem. Rain, very much so.

Thunderstorm activity remains well displaced from Debby's LLC this evening. The centre is not far from landfall on the west coast of Florida. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical depression over land before re-strengthening back over the warm water of the gulf stream. Shear may be a little lower here so Debby may actually reach peak intensity at some point after re-emergence over water.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear did not let up as Debby emerged of the east coast of Florida, and as a result, Debby has degenerated into a remnant low. Remaining convection is linear and barely involved with the LLC which is rapidly becoming elongated. Re-development is not expected.