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Paul Sherman

Last Chase Day For 2012 - S Dakota

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We come to the last chase day for the Netweather Stormchase Season tomorrow 22nd June and it looks like we could get some decent structure with 3,000jkg + of Cape on offer, storms should initiate mid to late afternoon in the Black Hills region of South Dakota and Wyoming and drift South Easterly. Hoping for just 1 or 2 Supercells and not the battle royale that has plagued us all season with too many cells fighting it out.

post-24-0-72793100-1340322086_thumb.gif

...WRN SD/WRN NEB AND VICINITY...

DESPITE PERSISTENT BACKGROUND RIDGING...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST

THAT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WY VICINITY

DURING THE DAY AND THEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SD/NEB

REGION BY EVENING...WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LARGE NERN

PACIFIC UPPER LOW.

EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE ATOP A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH SUGGEST

DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH INCREASED STORM

COVERAGE/UPSCALE GROWTH LIKELY INTO THE EVENING AS A STRONG SLY/SELY

LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORT-WAVE

FEATURE.

WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WLYS/SWLYS -- SPREADING ATOP THE

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF

ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS -- EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

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Good luck today. It's been a funny season with only isolated decent days but you've still managed to latch onto the more significant areas even when storms were hard to find.

I will be chasing next year (middle two weeks in May probably) so hope to meet you out there.

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It's finally come, the last day of the extra long 2012 season!

Hopefully the expected cap will remain stout enough to allow one or two discrete supercells to form, though not too stout that nothing fires!

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good luck for your last day Paul! hope the team find something nice to look at apart from an Applebee's!

good amount of CAPE there to be taken, hope the cap doesnt stop a last hurrah!

Gee

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How sad when the last chase day comes round. Good luck team i will be keeping all fingers crossed for you.

Tom

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today looks remarkably like a Denver Cyclone set up - Nick, your thoughts

Tom

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right we are currently heading towards chedron Nebraska we are heading south from pine ridge in south Dakota we will then head west on the 20

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stayed in Chadron saw a childs coffin on a motor bike , not sure what that was about

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ah memories of chase trips

Karen and 7 tornadoes ahhhhh! What a day

Tom

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You don't need my thoughts, ask Chicken George!

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ah memories of chase trips

Karen and 7 tornadoes ahhhhh! What a day

Tom

six lol

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Structure, lightning and some, um, 'adventurous' driving to end the chase days for 2012. Once again, a quick upload of images that probably need some tlc before being shared, but it is late...

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Not a bad way to end the tour, thanks to the Tour 5 guests, Paul S & Ian Cameron for their hard work on this tour, Dave, Arron, Tom, John and Nick on the first three tours this year and the guests who joined us in the USA, on the stream and on the forums. It goes too quickly, here's to 2013...

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six lol

Do you have to have thunder to have thundery showers???

Tom

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Do you have to have thunder to have thundery showers???

Tom

No but you have to have jam to have a jam sandwich blum.gif

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Extreme heat over Colorado and western Kansas on Saturday, high of 110 F (43 C) at Lamar CO.

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