Winter Forecast! - He's At It Again...

[Radiating Dendrite]

He also likes asteroids...

Especially near earth ones.........

Here he is! http://forum.netweather.tv/user/2721-yamkin/

Edited June 20, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[Mark Neal.]

Oh,No! Not another summer of listening to sensationalism weather forecasts by weather forecaster's who seem to have less sense than the majority on this forum!

[TEITS]

Oh dear more rubbish.

What annoys me about James Madden is last year I politely disagreed with some of his forecasts especially his prediction of a white xmas and yet none of my posts were approved. Seemed only those who said positive comments about his forecasts appeared on the guest book.

I will never understand why he predicted a white xmas from a meteorological POV but I do have a sneaky idea why he did which I won't post on this forum!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Oh,No! Not another summer of listening to sensationalism weather forecasts by weather forecaster's who seem to have less sense than the majority on this forum!

He is no more qualified than the majority on this forum!

He just happens to have his own website, which many on here do not!

[TEITS]

Lets be honest even the most skilled weather forecaster couldn't make an accurate prediction for this winter in September let alone June!

My view of LRFs is this. Don't bother and just stick with the models between 0+ to +192.

[Mark Neal.]

My view of LRFs is this. Don't bother and just stick with the models between 0+ to +192.

Hallelujah! If only people who come out with these silly forecasts would have this mentality.

[phil nw.]

I am not against LRF`s as this is the way to develop knowledge ie.learning from wrong forecasts and deciding what Atmospheric/Oceanic factors should be prioritised in future.

I am against people who simply give forecasts without some data to explain their reasoning.

Beyond the shorter term range ie 3-5 days then yes details will inevitably change but medium term trends up to say 10-14 days such as we often discuss in the model thread are imo more acceptable now than when i first joined the forum.

Longer range than this will always be a challenge but i see plenty of merit in having a go and trying to push the boundaries if you like as long as the methods are explained to the readers.

There`s certainly no disgrace in getting LRF`s wrong if the origonater has made a genuine forecast based on sensible data explained fully.

Quedos to anyone having a go i say.

[ZONE 51]

Yep...........but in Madden land he was predicting an Ice Age last winter.

So if this is relation to his forecast from last year, then expect absolute zero to be recorded in Braemar!

I have read a book on the predicted ice age, it stated that summer would become colder! ring any bells! we need to see what the next winter brings, i am predicting a mild winter this time, BUT, with cold and snowy spells and some could be severe, if we where heading into an ice age then would the temperatures not be cold all the time? Edited June 21, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Radiating Dendrite]

I have read a book on the predicted ice age, it stated that summer would become colder! ring any bells! we need to see what the next winter brings, i am predicting a mild winter this time, BUT, with cold and snowy spells and some could be severe, if we where heading into an ice age then would the temperatures not be cold all the time?

I think it is fairly obvious that during an Ice Age the summer would become a bit colder!

We have had colder summers in the past and did we see an Ice Age? I think people are getting carried away. The summers in the last few years have not been great, but things can quickly change. Anyone remember 2003 and 2006 for example?

Edited June 21, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[Backtrack]

Backtrack's best mate....

Don't get me started.

[shedhead]

Well if nothing else you have to admire the guys persistence and self confidence, but he does appear to be morphing into a PC, with every output proving to be more and more sensationalistic than the last.

Edited June 21, 2012 by shedhead

[cheeky_monkey]

Well if nothing else you have to admire the guys persistence and self confidence, but he does appear to be morphing into a PC, with every output proving to be more and more sensationalistic than the last.

Its neither persistence or self confidence..its pure marketing..trying to grab headlines by being sensationalists. its a common ploy in business regardless of whether you are trying to sell a weather forecast, newspapers or shoes.

If he put out forecasts that were predicting average weather every season would anybody even know who he was or would anyone take any notice?

[arcticadventurer]

Joe laminate floori has stuck his neck out and predicted that future winters including this one would be cold one. My gut feeling is that we will have another non eventfull winter.

[Met4Cast]

Lets be honest even the most skilled weather forecaster couldn't make an accurate prediction for this winter in September let alone June!

My view of LRFs is this. Don't bother and just stick with the models between 0+ to +192.

I would tend to agree with this even though I love producing LRF, I suppose it's more about the challenge of attempting something next to impossible, unless you're Madden of course, in which case winter could turn out to be hotter than the Sahara and he'd still claim to be right because there one a passing snow flurry at the tip of a Scottish Mountain.

[Methuselah]

Joe laminate floori has stuck his neck out and predicted that future winters including this one would be cold one. My gut feeling is that we will have another non eventfull winter.

Now that has a familiar ring to it...

[philglossop]

Ah well. Roll on Summer then.............

[rob48]

How do these much-maligned individuals efforts compare to LRFers of higher esteem - such as the netweather summer ones?

[johnholmes]

How do these much-maligned individuals efforts compare to LRFers of higher esteem - such as the netweather summer ones?

now there is a little bit of reaearch for you to do rob-when its done show us the full results please-thanks

[rob48]

If I had the time I wouldn't need to ask.

As it happens I've got plenty of other things to do but thanks for taking the trouble to provide such a helpful response.

Like being back at school.

[Methuselah]

If I had the time I wouldn't need to ask.

As it happens I've got plenty of other things to do but thanks for taking the trouble to provide such a helpful response.

Like being back at school.

Aye, rob, fair enough. So why did you even bother to raise the subject, in the first place?

[rob48]

Aye, rob, fair enough. So why did you even bother to raise the subject, in the first place?

Have you noticed how some LRFs are shot down before the relevant time-period has even started, and others have praise heaped upon them, again, before they become current?

I'd have thought the time to appraise them was at the end of the forecast period rather than the beginning.

[Methuselah]

The question is a purely scientific one, rob: is it possible to predict weather six-months' ahead of it occurring? And all the evidence (whenever 'misses' are acknowledged as readily as are 'hits') so far, says: no it isn't.

[johnholmes]

In response to rob48

my I was actually hoping for a constructive reply. I spend a lot of time in a quite busy life trying to show scientifically if one method is better than another and hoped you might have been available to do a similar job with lrf outputs? It was not meant as a knock down or treating you like a schoolboy as your response seems to suggest.

[rob48]

In response to rob48

my I was actually hoping for a constructive reply. I spend a lot of time in a quite busy life trying to show scientifically if one method is better than another and hoped you might have been available to do a similar job with lrf outputs? It was not meant as a knock down or treating you like a schoolboy as your response seems to suggest.

Very well.

I obviously misconstrued your meaning and apologise unreservedly.

[rob48]

The question is a purely scientific one, rob: is it possible to predict weather six-months' ahead of it occurring? And all the evidence (whenever 'misses' are acknowledged as readily as are 'hits') so far, says: no it isn't.

Quite agree with you.

What I don't understand is why some LRFs are rubbished as soon as they appear yet others are treated like the second coming.

The people who praised the netweather summer forecast (on June 1st) the highest are, by and large, the ones moaning about the summer weather the loudest.

Doesn't quite equate somehow.