Winter Forecast! - He's At It Again...

[chionomaniac]

A little unfair, nobody knows the winter stratospheric temperature from this far out. In any case, polar strat was warm in January and at the end of that month and into February remember Europe was affected by an extreme spell of winter weather which we only caught the edge of - a near miss.

http://en.wikipedia....opean_cold_wave

Yes, but last year we had a fair idea that the cold stratosphere would dictate the pattern until it changed, and yet the likes of James Madden continued to forecast super cold Octobers / Novembers (when the opposite looked likely) right up until it didn't occur.

And I also believe that it is easier to suggest how cold the stratosphere is likely to be due to predictable long term factors such as QBO phase, solar cycle, BDC circulation, some time in advance.

[Methuselah]

Just when I'd stopped getting sick of hearing the name "James Madden"...

Maddening, ain't it!

[AderynCoch]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yl3UMO-TkE

[The PIT]

Here is My Winter forecast

It will generally be unsettled with rain at times. Temperatures will vary between normal and below normal although there be will periods with temperatures well above normal. During the colder spells rain will turn to snow over hills especially in the north where the snow could be heavy. Snow may also reach to lower levels even in the south.

There will be one or two windy periods with damaging storms more likely in the North West and North of Scotland.

During the quieter spells there maybe frost and fog patches.

Now will I be wrong?

[Guest]

Strong winds??

They come from the Brussels Spouts eaten with the Christmas Lunch

[Backtrack]

Here is My Winter forecast

It will generally be unsettled with rain at times. Temperatures will vary between normal and below normal although there be will periods with temperatures well above normal. During the colder spells rain will turn to snow over hills especially in the north where the snow could be heavy. Snow may also reach to lower levels even in the south.

There will be one or two windy periods with damaging storms more likely in the North West and North of Scotland.

During the quieter spells there maybe frost and fog patches.

Now will I be wrong?

Yes, you didn't mention any sunshine?

[Relativistic]

I get bored with how numerously he says "at times".😞

[Guest]

I thought that globally 2011 was one of the hottest years and as far as our weather in the UK is concerned we are entirely at the mercy of the jet streams, so when we had a fairly indifferent summer a couple of years ago, there were record breaking high temperatures in Russia.

And if I recall correctly when we had the cold spell in December 2010, parts of Greenland were experiencing mild weather.

It would be interesting to know how the global average temperature is performing so far this year.

[Guest]

Yes, you didn't mention any sunshine?

I would sugest that when it is cloudy and foggy there won't be any sunshine, however in the absence of both of these there will be some sunny days to be enjoyed, though the sun will not shine at night.

[snowstorm445]

I thought that globally 2011 was one of the hottest years and as far as our weather in the UK is concerned we are entirely at the mercy of the jet streams, so when we had a fairly indifferent summer a couple of years ago, there were record breaking high temperatures in Russia.

And if I recall correctly when we had the cold spell in December 2010, parts of Greenland were experiencing mild weather.

It would be interesting to know how the global average temperature is performing so far this year.

Yes, Iceland and Greenland were very mild. The Jet Stream had extended so far North it had given them the air we usually get.

Also interesting was that Spain and Portugal got some of their wettest Decembers on record, because the Jet Stream had been pushed south over them, sending all Atlantic depressions their way.

[stewfox]

Here is My Winter forecast

It will generally be unsettled with rain at times. Temperatures will vary between normal and below normal although there be will periods with temperatures well above normal. During the colder spells rain will turn to snow over hills especially in the north where the snow could be heavy. Snow may also reach to lower levels even in the south.

There will be one or two windy periods with damaging storms more likely in the North West and North of Scotland.

During the quieter spells there maybe frost and fog patches.

Now will I be wrong?

+ 234 IMBY

330 Post of T384 awesome charts

12 SM posts of T214 -25c 850s

7 will it snow on xmas day by 15th Nov

All certainties

[ohno]

I predict it will be 84f on the first of Febuary followed by 24f on the second... A drop of 50f in less than 24 hours..

[UV-RAY]

Yes, Iceland and Greenland were very mild. The Jet Stream had extended so far North it had given them the air we usually get.

Also interesting was that Spain and Portugal got some of their wettest Decembers on record, because the Jet Stream had been pushed south over them, sending all Atlantic depressions their way.

Actually the Jet stream was much further South then, the reason for the anomalous warmth there was down to to where the High pressure cells were situated.

[bobbydog]

Please excuse my ignorance, but who's Yamkin?

Backtrack's best mate....

[Relativistic]

I thought that globally 2011 was one of the hottest years and as far as our weather in the UK is concerned we are entirely at the mercy of the jet streams, so when we had a fairly indifferent summer a couple of years ago, there were record breaking high temperatures in Russia.

I think 2011 was the 11th warmest year globally.

When we and much of America experienced the mild weather last winter, parts of Canada and Alaska were experiencing some of their heaviest snowfalls ever. When the jet stream does one thing somewhere, the opposite nearly always occurs somewhere else!

[johnholmes]

Nah, Mr Crazy Snowfan's understudy.

the site is not the same without his input during the winter half of the year, I wonder if he has his Christmas decorations up yet?

[bobbydog]

the site is not the same without his input during the winter half of the year, I wonder if he has his Christmas decorations up yet?

you're right john.... when he's not around, i don't get the urge to stick forks in my eyes.....

[AderynCoch]

I would sugest that when it is cloudy and foggy there won't be any sunshine, however in the absence of both of these there will be some sunny days to be enjoyed, though the sun will not shine at night.

At times, maybe.

[summer blizzard]

Personally i don't think this should have its own thread given that we have a winter thread.

As for the forecast, whilst i would normally call it a load of sensationalist rubbish i am actually bullish this winter. In my opinion we should see a weakening weak El Nino combined with a neutral QBO, i also note that the PDO is holding firmly negative despite the El Nino developing.

I doubt that it will match winter 2010 and it may not be as cold as 2009 and 2011 overall but i do see a consistently cold winter ahead (and a rather wet spring if you want to push me that far ahead).

[bobbydog]

Personally i don't think this should have its own thread given that we have a winter thread.

personally, if the mods are of a similar opinion, i'm sure they will see fit to move/delete as appropriate. i started this thread as it was about a winter forecast released in june! i thought people would be interested (which they obviously are) and thought it would be reasonable to start a thread about it. i'm sure an extra thread in this section does not disrupt your life in any way. therefore your opinion is duly noted (as you are entitled to have one) but is not required in this case.

[Styx]

I notice he has toned down his apocolyptic language, and is defiently more vauge.

One thing seems certain though and that is his front page tabloid days are over. Surely?

[Aaron]

I know, I'm so sorry! I haven't been following this forum much.

A scary and weird person

[Radiating Dendrite]

Please excuse my ignorance, but who's Yamkin?

Stick around and you will found out during Autumn/Winter when he emerges from his summer hibernation.

He can usually be found hanging out in the SE regional thread. He has a direct line to Croydon council gritting department and tends to times everything by around 60, so 1cm of forecasted snow actually equates to around 60cm.

He is slightly cold and snow mad......................

[Methuselah]

Stick around and you will found out during Autumn/Winter when he emerges from his summer hibernation.

He can usually be found hanging out in the SE regional thread. He has a direct line to Croydon council gritting department and tends to times everything by around 60, so 1cm of forecasted snow actually equates to around 60cm.

He is slightly cold and snow mad......................

He also likes asteroids...

[Coast]

personally, if the mods are of a similar opinion, i'm sure they will see fit to move/delete as appropriate. i started this thread as it was about a winter forecast released in june! i thought people would be interested (which they obviously are) and thought it would be reasonable to start a thread about it. i'm sure an extra thread in this section does not disrupt your life in any way. therefore your opinion is duly noted (as you are entitled to have one) but is not required in this case.

I guess it has some merit to be here on its own and can be fully analysed or discussed at the end (or after) the actual season. I imagine this thread may be merged or become part of a more general Winter forecast one 'as and when' a few more other independent forecasters (and maybe members?) show their hand, much as last Winter.

At the moment it looks like the current Madden forecast is a bit too generalised to pick out any real detail to comment fully on and I would urge people to stick to actual forecast analysis and discussion here, rather than defamatory or derogatory comments about individuals please.