Greenland - What Do We Know, What Is The Long Term Future And Is There Any Evidence Of A Melt Out?

[be cause]

Not according to Masie amounts of sea ice have increased overall over the last few days.

June 17 2014  MASIE Update - According to MASIE Arctic Sea Ice is up 28,401 over the last 3 days

 

7 regions have a net gain for last 3 days. Greenland Sea is the big gainer.

Region Start End Last 79 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 872,963 -815,568 -342,840 -172,753 -51,216 -28,850 5,785 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 1,140,749 -120,154 -90,558 -80,991 -47,516 -32,539 7,709 Bering Sea 697,324 52,799 -644,525 -92,626 -50,482 -41,676 -16,162 0 Chukchi Sea 966,006 846,814 -119,192 -67,648 -37,922 -18,060 16,608 0 Kara Sea 933,859 840,006 -93,854 -76,631 -34,108 -13,967 1,559 0 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 16,272 -836,967 -77,483 -32,293 -9,492 -3,419 -5,020 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 1,005,353 -81,784 -23,042 -25,952 -8,627 -1,563 0 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 785,240 -67,974 -48,285 -22,230 -7,658 1,926 3,421 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Barents Sea 645,917 275,816 -370,101 -230,008 -101,902 171 11,868 0 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,243,659 21,738 -3,161 3,853 1,703 -39 0 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 1,039,609 -30,836 -12,967 -16,747 5,347 8,047 9,199 Laptev Sea 897,845 704,210 -193,634 -181,040 -39,909 18,180 13,055 0 Greenland Sea 603,416 680,576 77,161 -31,751 58,656 46,977 57,910 12,906                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 11,505,595 -3,299,520 -1,277,718 -552,395 -125,448 28,401 33,999                   NH (Average Loss per Day)     -41,244 -45,633 -39,457 -17,921 9,467 33,999

 

Hi KL .. Greenland and Greenland sea are very different places . Ice increase in the latter this time of year is export from the Arctic .. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I doubt he even understands what 'MASIE' monitors B'? Yes ,the Di-pole will lead to Greenland Sea increase in masie as the pack breaks apart and stretches? 

 

They have a similar issue with volume gains in antarctic sea ice compared to volume losses from the ice sheet?

[keithlucky]

I doubt he even understands what 'MASIE' monitors B'? Yes ,the Di-pole will lead to Greenland Sea increase in masie as the pack breaks apart and stretches? 

 

They have a similar issue with volume gains in antarctic sea ice compared to volume losses from the ice sheet?

No need for personal

 attacks Grey Wolf read and learn rather than be blinkered.http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1057/2014/tc-8-1057-2014.html

Edited June 19, 2014 by keithlucky

[Gray-Wolf]

Not truly Greenland KL but thanks for the site Link!

 

As far as my personal opinion is concerned I find us less and less secure about the future of EAIS and its speed of response?

[stewfox]

current forecasts appear to be nudging toward quite a large amount of Greenland's surface suffering melt over the coming days?

 

As you would expect as we head towards July. All fairly standard

[knocker]

Not good.

 

The Heat is on in Greenland: Support the Dark Snow Project

 

The heat is on in Greenland, where the high temperature on Tuesday hit an unusually warm 67°F at Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord) in southwestern Greenland. It's been a hot June at Kangerlussuaq, where the temperature peaked at 73°F on June 15. That's not far below the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded in Greenland of 78.6°F, set just last year on July 30 at nearby Maniitsoq Mittarfia, as documented at wunderground's extremes page. The unusual warmth this year melted nearly 40% of the Greenland Ice Sheet in mid-June, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center--far above the usual 15% figure. The warm June temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer, and scientists with the Dark Snow Project are on the ice, 48 miles east Kangerlussuaq, conducting a two-month field experiment on the causes and implications of Greenland ice melt.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2706

[stewfox]

Not good.

 

The Heat is on in Greenland: Support the Dark Snow Project

 

The heat is on in Greenland, where the high temperature on Tuesday hit an unusually warm 67°F at Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord) in southwestern Greenland. It's been a hot June at Kangerlussuaq, where the temperature peaked at 73°F on June 15. That's not far below the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded in Greenland of 78.6°F, set just last year on July 30 at nearby Maniitsoq Mittarfia, as documented at wunderground's extremes page. The unusual warmth this year melted nearly 40% of the Greenland Ice Sheet in mid-June, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center--far above the usual 15% figure. The warm June temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer, and scientists with theDark Snow Project are on the ice, 48 miles east Kangerlussuaq, conducting a two-month field experiment on the causes and implications of Greenland ice melt.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2706

 

Imagine if we had lost 40% of the Greenlands ice sheet by mid June we would have a 9ft sea level rise now  !!!

 

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

 

Figure 2a. The graph above shows the daily extent of melt during May 2014 on the Greenland Ice Sheet surface as a percentage. The 1981 to 2010 average is shown by a blue dashed line. The gray area around this average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data

 

The ice sheet surface is around 0.05% of total volume of ice.Note its just the surface ice.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet

 

You will also see current melt although higher then usual is well with the standard two deviations used for Greenland. Its 2SDs as it fluctuates from year to year.

 

May in Greenland was cold

Edited June 25, 2014 by stewfox

[knocker]

Not sure why you posted the same link again but you are quite correct. JM has used rather bad terminology

 

 

Melting extended over about 10% of Greenland during a brief mid-May warm period in the far south, and then climbed again as the month came to a close. As of this writing in mid-June 2014, melting has rapidly expanded to 30% of Greenland’s ice sheet, and at present favors the western and northern Greenland coast after little activity there in May. Greenland’s weather in May was characterized by cool conditions over the northern two-thirds of the island, but in the south, temperatures were approximately 1 degree Celsius warmer than average for the month, relative to the 1981 to 2010 reference period.

 

Higher temperatures and a period of light easterly and northeasterly winds in mid-May favored a rapid start to the melt season in southern Greenland. The pattern of melting on the ice sheet, and the timing of melt events, agrees well with the MAR model produced by X. Fettweis at Université de Liège.

 

And Year 2014 Greenland upper elevations ice reflectivity has been at record low values much of 2014 so far, and in recent years, consistent with the conclusions of Dumont et al. (2014). See the blue line; year 2014.

 

http://darksnow.org/dark-snow-the-dust-factor-and-the-2014-melt-season-onset/

Edited June 25, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Study links Greenland ice sheet collapse, sea level rise 400,000 years ago

 

A new study suggests that a warming period more than 400,000 years ago pushed the Greenland ice sheet past its stability threshold, resulting in a nearly complete deglaciation of southern Greenland and raising global sea levels some 4-6 meters.

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140625131947.htm

[knocker]

Scientists find evidence of long-term warming inside Greenland's ice sheet

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20140628/scientists-find-evidence-long-term-warming-inside-greenlands-ice-sheet#.U7Bcaw-DYhg.twitter

[knocker]

Wrong thread.

Edited July 3, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

I Didn't Care About Climate Change Until I Visited Greenland — Now I'm Freaking Out About It

Read more: http://forumblog.org/2014/07/visiting-greenland-made-realise-climate-change/#ixzz36ViMWfno

[knocker]

Intense melt W and N #Greenland, most negative day of year so far by some distance http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ â€¦ pic.twitter.com/w6CKSb7Rj2

 

2014 Greenland surface melting above average http://ow.ly/i/6ak4L  the lowest melt area days are at 1981-2010 average

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd been noting the recent losses esp. seeing as the daily losses there seem to be more mass than that involved in the total sea ice anom that some are cheering in Antarctica?

[stewfox]

Interesting

 

Greenland is losing about 0.1% of its ice per decade—that is, about 0.01% per year. At that rate, it will take a century for it to lose 1%.

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/lying-with-statistics-the-national-climate-assessment-falsely-hypes-ice-loss-in-greenland-and-antarctica/

 

Current year well within 2 SD so no evidence yet this year of anything unusual

Edited July 9, 2014 by stewfox

[knocker]

Just to note My post was a couple of tweets from Dr E. Box who gets his hands dirty and has been studying Greenland for twenty years and he is quite concerned. Dr Box's bio.

 

https://sites.google.com/site/jboxgreenland/bio

 

 

E. Calvin Beisner is not a climate scientist. No, he's an orthodox presbyterian elder and a member of the pseudo-religious cult, the Cornwall Alliance. His denial of science is to be recognised by the Heartland Institute, so we've been told.

J.C. Keister Jr is also associated with the Cornwall Alliance. He claims a PhD in something or other but I guess he gave that up for his crank religion.

The Cornwall Alliance forbids its members from accepting climate science. It's probably a mortal sin. Not sure about evolution - that might be forbidden too. At least one of its members, Roy Spencer, rejects biological science.

 

A lesson in statistics with E. Calvin Beisner and J.C. Keister at WUWT

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/07/a-lesson-in-statistics-with-e-calvin.html

Edited July 10, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes stew, the Greenland ice sheet is massive. That does not alter the fact that it is currently losing more ice each day than is in the Antarctic anom. I'd hazard a guess at saying that the last 'doubling' of losses would mean that half the current losses is still slightly more than all the ice held in the current Antarctic anom?

 

But then add in the current rate of land glacier losses and ice caps in the Northern hemisphere.......... can you see where we are heading? 

[stewfox]

Yes stew, the Greenland ice sheet is massive. That does not alter the fact that it is currently losing more ice each day than is in the Antarctic anom. 

 

But it needs to be put in perspective as much of the interest in Greenland melt is the implication on sea level rise.

[stewfox]

Early refreeze or data error ??

 

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Edited July 14, 2014 by stewfox

[pottyprof]

That'll be proof that climate change is a man made problem and they just corrected the data errors...  

 

 

 

 

(I know...  I can't pass over the irony without saying something though....)  

Edited July 19, 2014 by pottyprof

[stewfox]

That'll be proof that climate change is a man made problem and they just corrected the data errors...  

 

 

 

 

(I know...  I can't pass over the irony without saying something though....)  

 

 

Bang on average at present

[Gray-Wolf]

Keep an eye on it over the next 3 days stew! Climate reanalyzer show some massive positive anoms over there for that period.

 

as for bang on average? a quick eyeball shows far more above average than below average ( what time span is the base line taken from? we had a doubling of mass loss over the noughties so it must be a short span over recent years???) ?

[knocker]

Not quite average

 

Peak of melt season #Greenland few days after snow, warmer conditions in North caused low #SMB http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ â€¦ pic.twitter.com/RrquRvklOk

 

And

 

Greenland ice reflectivity decline: more sunlight absorption equiv w 2x US annual energy use http://www.darksnow.org  pic.twitter.com/bhkD3vsVAv

[stewfox]

 

 

Keep an eye on it over the next 3 days stew! Climate reanalyzer show some massive positive anoms over there for that period.

 

as for bang on average? a quick eyeball shows far more above average than below average ( what time span is the base line taken from? we had a doubling of mass loss over the noughties so it must be a short span over recent years???) ?

 

It shows the 1981-2010 average ?

 

Some variability year to year but nothing to write home about surely ?

Edited July 22, 2014 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-376&cid=release_2012-376

 

The above is nearly 2 years old yet we see a five fold increase in Greenland ice loss since the 90's?