Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

[Lynxus]

That cell NE of oxford is now showing sferics!

Oh please let something reach here lol

[Phelpsy]

Real heavy rain shower just now sun poking through atm

[A.J]

That cell NE of oxford is now showing sferics!

Oh please let something reach here lol

Yep, just to the east of Bicester moving quickly NE towards Towcester/Northampton...quite active by the looks of things

[Nick F]

Yes, interesting looking cell just east of Bicester, Oxon - discrete and potent.

[A.J]

another potent looking cell has fired just to the north of Huntington, near the A1....Quite a bit of lightning associated with that one.....looks to be a very busy day in here as the day progresses!

[Methuselah]

Just had a whopper: everything including hail and v gusty winds...

[nimbus20]

Plenty of Cu development here, and growing into quite large cells, but are also inhibited by a veil of Ci and Cs. Potential is there for something later on, especially if the higher cloud breaks. Muggy feeling kind of morning too, 15C currently with about 75% rel humidity

[BrickFielder]

One of those days I think where you might be better off looking out the window or at radar and satellite pictures than the models. Still there is some information in the models which will be usefull.

Greatest instability seems to congregated in the lincolnshire hull area and is linked to the steepest mid level lapse rates.

We should however bear in mind that instability is forecast based somewhat on dewpoints at the surface which forecast SkewT's suggest may not be that deep. Contrast this with surface temperatures which look a little on the low side. Since the north west will be a key area today I think ,lets have a look at a SkewT from that region.

Certainly unstable, with cloud tops reaching high enough for storms, however the whole atmosphere is rather moist so convection is likely to be somewhat messy. Winds through the atmosphere are not that strong although there is some shear in the lowest level. From the models this looks like a risk area for slower moving multi cell storms. Its probably not a super cell risk area though.

Looking at cloud top forecasts across the UK then we see that further south cloud tops may be somewhat limited.

The reason looks to be drier slight warmer air coming in aloft. Looking at the forecast SkewT for salisbury we see a fair amount of wind speed shear through the atmosphere. If the winds had more directional shear I think you would be looking at rotating convection (potential super cells), however with the amount of speed shear things like storm splitting can not be ruled out. The trouble is that cloud tops look somewhat limited during peak heating hours.

Somewhat in the middle you have a mixture of both. Neither particularly strong winds aloft, nor the dry slot aloft to aid convection, with moderate height cloud tops. There is however a slight jet through the mid to lower layers.

In conclusion from the models I would suggest there is a risk of flooding, lightning and hail in north eastern areas, potential for some isolated more severe storms through parts of the midlands and a very isolated more severe storm in the south.

Looking at Satellite pictures I would suggest that a trough is moving across the central southern part of the UK and will initiate storms perhaps culminating in some moderately strong storms crossing east anglia and licolnshire around mid day. There might be some potential for an isolated storm through the midlands mid afternoon with perhaps a swift moving low top super cell affecting southern areas.

Key risk area is the north midlands, north east and licolnshire anything else is rather speculative. Very slight tornado risk, perhaps from an embedded storm in the frontal zone in the north due to wind convergence, or where the UK's unsual geography can throw up some unusual storm behaviour.

Some will definately miss out on storms today and I doubt whether the models will tell us much more today.

[Eskimo]

Had a torrential downpour for the past 15 minutes, the water built up and poured straight down into my neighbours drive and into their garage, got them and their next door neighbour frantically pushing the water out and moving things out before their stuff is destroyed.

Edited June 15, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Suburban Streamer]

Can see a line of showers developed along that trough passing thru. Very heavy rain here and feels quite humid but only rain

[Wet'n'Dry]

Still dry here but something big and ugly approaching from my SW ... or is that the wife?

[Lynxus]

Looks like now that trough has moved away, theres plenty of convection going up now.

Could get interesting in the next few hours!

[Kain]

EAST AGAIN ARRGGGH...ahem needed to get that out my system!

We have had a few beefy showers and thats about it, the sun is out now but not for long judging by the dark bases looming!

[Lewis]

Am I ok to post netweather extra radar screenshot's on here?

Regards

Lewis

[Flash Elvis]

Still dry here but something big and ugly approaching from my SW ... or is that the wife?

SW Of Basildon or Brentwood???

Very Sunny here

[Liam J]

Torrential rain now falling here in Keswick, very angry looking skies brewing up.

I want a storm......

Edited June 15, 2012 by Liam J

[YokTok]

Absolutely chucking it down here with very high winds which is litteraly screaming through the trees.

[Wet'n'Dry]

SW Of Basildon or Brentwood???

Very Sunny here

Ooops!! Yup, at home today so Basildon, but looking at the radar it doesn't really matter as there's an intensive string about 50 miles long!!

[Bobby]

Some torrential downpours this morning, more persistent heavy rain sems to be moving in again now. 35mm rain from this system already.

[Liam J]

Am I ok to post netweather extra radar screenshot's on here?

Regards

Lewis

Yes that should be fine Lewis, many have done in the past, myself included....

Edited June 15, 2012 by Liam J

[paul m]

Really hope some storms make it up here but i doubt it. To those who do get them ENJOY!!!!!

[Kent Snow]

Radar really fired into life over Canterbury in the past 15 minutes and its began to throw it down!

[Supacell]

Can hear sferics on AM but nothing on lightning detectors, then again O2 coverage round here is rubbish.

Currently sat near to Thorne in N Lincs.

[Sprites]

Cg to my north seen from the loft about 10 miles away heading towards Thetford area.

[Hughsey]

Two thunderstorms passed through my location today, first one was bigger than the second but missed that as inside at a university convention, second I saw torrential rain, couple of strikes and some thunder. Came as a surprise as didnt realise there was a storm risk today .