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VillagePlank

Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

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Thought I'd start a new one with the lovely Estofex level one,

post-5986-0-58181600-1339722361_thumb.pn

And, of course, not to forget our very own NetWeather forecast ...

http://www.netweathe...convective;sess=

Who could forget the MetO weather warnings,

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Looks like it will be a day with widespread potential with much of England and E Wales seeing possible storms. The word 'supercell' has even been mentioned .... I'll give a forecast a go with the 6z

Happy hunting, and stay safe

smile.png

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I'm in agreement with Lewis and AJ that Lincolnshire/Leicestershire and areas around look good today. I will check all the charts and then, after a morning of working, get out there and attempt a chase.

I've not been lucky this year and not seen a single storm. I don't think today will be easy from the pov of the speed any storms will move, so its a case of being in the right place before the storm comes as opposed to seeing it on radar and chasing. If you can be in the right place though then the possibility of seeing some really interesting weather :)

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I have done a map of where i expect the storms to be, the zones indicate where severe storm potential is, i have numbered the areas..

post-11361-0-12963100-1339737331_thumb.g

The low pressure storm center sitting off the coast of Ireland, across Ireland south/central parts(zone 1 and 3) here some thunder showers, and some storms possible, a fair bit of CAPE/Lifted index, quite cold at 500hpa, so some unstable air. Across England and Wales we have a high risk of storms, this most likely the further inland and up into the east/northeast of my zoned areas(zone 2), storms could be forming further south of zone 2 and developing more severe into that zone, i expect some severe thunderstorms to develop, upper temps at 500hpa are really quite cold -20-23C generally, 850hpa winds are fast 30-45knts, surface warming with temps up to 18C maybe higher in some areas, some of the highest CAPE levels across England especially further northeast(gfs), these conditions in one bowl creating the right mix for severe thunderstorms, for the last zoned area(4) across other parts of Wales and the SW/S there is the risk of thundery downpours, maybe storms, this is lowest risk area.

So in general i expect alot of convective activity today with some areas getting some bigger storms then others, if you are not in the zone then it would proberly be prolonged rainfall thats the problem.

Risk of flooding today from frontal rainfall and convective developments, thunderstorms, downpours.

I won't mention anything about the tornado risk.. that is the hardest one to predict i think, the winds through the layers do look interesting though.

(anything not sounding right in my post please do let me know, very tired now!)

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Heavy showers have got going good and early across SE Somerset, Dorset and moving into S/SE Wiltshire.

One batch developed around 06.00 and has moved NNE through the Salisbury area and another has done so in the same

part of the South Coast which will move across similar places in the next hour.

Initiation for these showers has been between Bridport-Weymouth as lighter showers make landfall.

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Going to be interesting to see the storms direction changing from a northerly direction to westerly as they spiral around the low's circulation, makes chasing a little complicated on the ground but RADAR watching will be the necessity of the day given there's plenty of low-mid level in-fill happening. The stuff moving into the Netherlands also looks appertising this morning.

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Morning all!

Going to be a busy day on the forum I think. ESTOFEX forecast is at the top of the page so here is SkyWarn's take on things:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #029

ISSUED: 1800UTC THURSDAY 14TH JUNE 2012 (GJ/SM/GS)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WALES ENGLAND NORTHERN IRELAND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1800UTC THURSDAY 14TH UNTIL 2359UTC FRIDAY 15TH JUNE 2012

DEEP LOW MATURING AND STALLING TO THE SOUTHWEST SPREADS AN AREA OF POST-FRONTAL STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN A FAVOURABLY SHEARED REGIME

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY RAIN... HAIL... STRONG GUSTS... FUNNELS/TORNADOES... LIGHTNING... FLASH FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE OCCLUDING FRONT TRANSISTS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY WITH SOME ELEVATED BUT ORGANISED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UK. SOME STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL. DURING THE DAY, STRONG SOLAR HEATING OF AN UNCAPPED AREA OF INSTABILITY COVERING THE WATCH AREAS WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION. FAVOURABLE FULL-DEPTH SHEAR PROFILES INDIDCATE SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ENGLAND WHERE TORNADOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE. A FRONTAL WAVE TRANSITS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO STRONG CONVECTION POTENTIALLY ORGANISING TO ISOLATED MATURE STORMS WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE RISKS. A DRY UPPER PROFILE WITH STRONG CAPE VALUES SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF MODERATE-LARGE HAIL SIZES. OVERALL PW VALUES OF AROUND 2CM MAY LEAD TO INTENSE RAINFALL WITH THE MOST DEVELOPED STORMS, LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO.

I'll go and dig some charts out in a moment to help pick out the areas with greatest potential

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What an exciting day for storms. Good luck all. I may even strike lucky myself today Lol.biggrin.png

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Good luck all for today i khow i going get none here

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Guest QuantumSnow

Morning all,

I'm not in prime position but ever the optimist, best of luck to you all and let's hope we lose a few more NSC members today (in a nice way!) :winky:

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I've just been taking a look through the charts this morning - - profess to not understanding them too much but checked out the cape and li which appear to be ok. Took a look at the shear charts and the deep layer shear very high for the (around the 30 mark).

Is this going to make a big difference to any storms should they appear down here?

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OK, here we go with my scroll finger exercises for Friday!!!

21st OWS don't have a full compliment of thunderstprm charts for today but they start with one which isn't promising at first:

050125Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12061506.GIF

Mid level aviation chart for today shows a more widespread zone over the UK, but it all misses the SE!!

PGNE14_CL.gif

GFS shows the good potential for CAPE in the East over Lincolnshire and S Yorks:

gfs_cape_eur12.png

Lots of lovely shear:

gfs_icape_eur12.png

gfs_layer_eur12.png

gfs_lfc_eur12.png

Lower level lapse rates again towards the East side of the country:

gfs_lapse_eur12.png

and here's that tornado possibility chart, again covering a wide area in the middle of the country:

gfs_stp_eur12.png

gfs_srhl_eur12.png

Th treat remains through the afternoon and confines itself mainly to an area baordering the Humber estuary at the beginning of the evening:

gfs_stp_eur18.png

TStorms today? right in the middle of the country from lunchtime:

12_20.gif

Spreading a little further East as the afternoon changes into early evening:

18_20.gif

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Morning guys,

I was going for Lincolnshire purely because in these situations they do very well.

Lately when it's looked promising form my neck of the woods further south in to Lincolnshire 9 times out of 10 get it head on. Whilst I think many areas in the East will see thunderstorms today, sadly it's going to be a case of some areas missing out, as it boils down to where the precipitation forms and the flow from the low pressure as this is going to be the driver.

I think the Humber Southwards looks very good for thunderstorms today, North bank of the Humber in to East Yorkshire/N Yorkshire have conditions but I have a feeling the main precipitation areas is Lincolnshire Southwards.

I've been wrong plenty of times before, most of the time when I've said East Yorkshire will take a battering, for Lincolnshire to then get it instead, I hope i'm wrong this time, you never know, a bit of reverse psychology might actually lead to me seeing a decent thunderstorm :p

If I was supacell, I would position myself around the Gainsborough area, and be ready to head South in to Lincoln. I'm on standby waiting for something to kick off, and the second it does i'll be on the A15 heading south, as much as I hate that road!

If it kicks off here, it'll be a bonus! :)

Stay safe guys, could be some very severe weather out there today.

Lewis

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hey guys what r the chances for brum just checked the bbc and there's no mension of thunderstorms for brum.

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No rumbles of thunder yet ....but already had a couple of very potent squally showers

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Morning guys,

I was going for Lincolnshire purely because in these situations they do very well.

Lately when it's looked promising form my neck of the woods further south in to Lincolnshire 9 times out of 10 get it head on. Whilst I think many areas in the East will see thunderstorms today, sadly it's going to be a case of some areas missing out, as it boils down to where the precipitation forms and the flow from the low pressure as this is going to be the driver.

I think the Humber Southwards looks very good for thunderstorms today, North bank of the Humber in to East Yorkshire/N Yorkshire have conditions but I have a feeling the main precipitation areas is Lincolnshire Southwards.

I've been wrong plenty of times before, most of the time when I've said East Yorkshire will take a battering, for Lincolnshire to then get it instead, I hope i'm wrong this time, you never know, a bit of reverse psychology might actually lead to me seeing a decent thunderstorm blum.gif

If I was supacell, I would position myself around the Gainsborough area, and be ready to head South in to Lincoln. I'm on standby waiting for something to kick off, and the second it does i'll be on the A15 heading south, as much as I hate that road!

If it kicks off here, it'll be a bonus! smile.png

Stay safe guys, could be some very severe weather out there today.

Lewis

Yes lewis looks really good for us in lincs, today if your out and about this side of the bridge this afternoon give us a shout,,, noticeably milder this morning sun nearly through !!!

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Morning all,

I'm not in prime position but ever the optimist, best of luck to you all and let's hope we lose a few more NSC members today (in a nice way!) wink.png

Not hopeful for today.

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The sun has come out here now and it's feeling warm. Very excited about later although if our luck this year is anything to go by then I don't know why I am. Still think a lot of the variables are looking good for today. Good amounts of cape and a negative LI. Wind coming off the land which allwayse helps.

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Good morning all. Aviation forecast for my location...

EGGW 150502Z 1506/1606 14002KT 3000 BR BKN006 BECMG 1506/1508 20012KT 9999 NSW SCT025 TEMPO 1506/1521 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 1508/1520 21016G26KT 4000 +SHRA TSGR

Scattered cloud between 0700-0900 - no significant weather.

Heavy and thundery downpours with hail forecasted between 0900 and 2100 - moderate chance.

Showers all day.

Small chance of a tornado somewhere?

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Interesting radar signature on a cell south of Chichester presently.

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Heavy rain and one shot-gun blast of thunder...

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Interesting radar signature on a cell south of Chichester presently.

The one over the Channel you mean? Does have a flying eagle-ish look. Surely not already......

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Feeling warm and humid this morning.

Sun keeps popping out so hopeful for heating and clouds erupting....biggrin.png

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And here's Torro with todays warning!

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2012/003

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0850GMT on Friday 15th June 2012

Valid from/until: 0900 - 2000GMT on Friday 15th June 2012, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

Much of S England

Midlands

E Anglia

Lincs/E Yorks/SE N England

SE Wales

THREATS

Tornadoes; hail to 20mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Substational surface cyclone and associated upper cold pool is located across S Eire. A cold front has cleared E England, with an occluded front located across N ENgland, which will ease into S Scotland. A wrap-around occlusion will affect western portions of Britain, and much of Eire.

With the mid-level dry slot across much of the watch area, scattered convection has already developed, mainly in associated with a subtle short-wave trough, currently from SE Wales to Sussex. This will continue to move NNE through this morning, with further showers and perhaps thunderstorms developing. Deep layer and low-level shear will be sufficient (0-6km, 30-40 knots; 0-1km 20-25 knots) for organised multicells, small lines, and splitting supercells. All modes of severe weather are possible, although the limited low-level veering of winds with height suggest a fairly low tornado risk overall. However, enough risk exists to warrant a tornado watch over a severe thunderstorm watch.

Behind this trough, forcing for ascent seems more nebulous, with less of a focus for convective development. However, diurnal heating along with topographical influences, and shear vorticity along the northern side of a pronouced jet streak (which will lie across SE England) suggest that further convection will develop. Again, shear will be sufficient for all modes of convection and severe. Again the tornado threat is fairly low but high enough to warrant a tornado watch.

Forecaster: RPK

UK MAP

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

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If I was supacell, I would position myself around the Gainsborough area, and be ready to head South in to Lincoln. I'm on standby waiting for something to kick off, and the second it does i'll be on the A15 heading south, as much as I hate that road!

Lewis

Thanks and I was thinking this myself. I worry though as Met office seem to think the heaviest precipitation and better chance is further north of the Humber. I am concerned that if i head south it will all happen north.. confused.com!

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