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ZONE 51

Heavy Rainfall, Thunderstorms And Flooding - Monday 11th/tue 12th June

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Hope this is ok to have a seperate one!

This particular system is generating alot of high rainfall totals, this has been focused across the Southeast overnight and is moving into other areas, an earlier radar grab shows where the heavy rains have been and are still falling in the same areas,

0325.gif

The purple/pink returns are the torrential falls,

a prediction from NAE model on the 18z run below for 9pm-3am shows how well it did,

12061103_2_1018.gif

Next the NAE 1200-0600hrs

(00z)

12061106_2_1100.gif

0300-0900hrs next

12061109_2_1100.gif

Next 0600-1200hrs

12061112_2_1100.gif

Next 0900-1500hrs

12061115_2_1100.gif

Next 1200-1800hrs

12061118_2_1100.gif

Some large totals of rain still to fall, we also have the risk of further developments in the SE, these thunderstorms if they develop would cause torrential downpours and flooding, so severe and slow moving and lasting into the night, it's the SE that has the high risk of actual thunderstorms, although i can't say if some thunder breaks out elsewhere!

Below is the total precipitation totals up to midnight tonight, first is NAE then GFS, (both 00z) some pretty big sums in there.

12061200_2_1100.gif

12061200_2_1100.gif

Next is the surface pressure at 1500hrs, this is NAE

12061115_2_1100.gif

and the surface winds at 1500hrs

12061115_2_1100.gif

12061112_2_1100.gif

The lifted index here indicates some unstable air around this feature,

12061115_2_1100.gif

Some CAPE around in places today.

Lots to keep watch on today!

post-11361-0-60393100-1339391806_thumb.g

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There is heavy rain still falling across parts of S/SE England, and this will continue into the morning for some further adding to the flood problems, recent radar returns show alot of heavy rain over the IOW, and some heavy stuff west of London(3am radar), and more developing, this should clear earlier rather then later.

As we move through the day further downpours focusing on Ireland, SW England, Wales, there is the risk of thunderstorms.

I have created a warning map here for these risks

post-11361-0-70791700-1339469571_thumb.g

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