Just For A Bit Of Fun...

[Relativistic]

One thing to note though, going into last winter the CFS was predicting a cold start/winter and look what happened, I'm starting to think it has a slight bias to colder weather

Wasn't December cooler than average in the first half? I seem to remember many places getting snow in the first half, the milder weather seemed to kick in mid month.

[NorthernRab]

One thing to note though, going into last winter the CFS was predicting a cold start/winter and look what happened, I'm starting to think it has a slight bias to colder weather

It was fairly cold for Scotland in particular, frequent NWrly snow if my memory serves me correctly, was particularly good for some of the ski resorts up here in the Highlands.

[mcweather]

For those who have been following my studies of the 4x daily CFS nine month runs for the coming winter. here are the results for the period 1st -31st August.

The parameters are as follows;

Mild = 75% or more of days in the month with a Mild pressure pattern.

Mixed = mixture of cold and mild pressure pattern during the month with no one pattern dominanating more than 75% of days

Cold or very cold = cold or very cold pressure pattern for 75% or more days of the month.

==================================================================================

December Mild 8% ( down 3%) Mixed 62% ( no change) Cold or very cold 30% ( up 5%)

January Mild 6% (down 7%) Mixed 62% (up 10%) Cold or very cold 32% (down 3%)

February Mild 6% ( no change) Mixed 65% (up 20%) Cold or very cold 29% (down 20%)

As mentioned in my last post there were quite a number of mixed runs when there were substantial cold spells that didn't make the 75% of days benchmark for the month to become classed as cold or very cold.

This time round I have also recorded the figures for those mixed months where the number of days with a cold or very cold pressure patterns cover more than 50% of days in the month but less than the 75% benchmark and they were as follows.

December 30% of the mixed runs were dominated by cold or very cold patterns

January 43% of the mixed runs were dominated by cold or very cold patterns

February 39% of mixed runs were dominated by cold or very cold patterns

All in all I'd say at the moment using only this particular model and no other factors that the results show a pretty high likelyhood of some substantial cold spells during the coming winter.

Edited September 2, 2012 by mcweather

[NorthernRab]

Possibly the ultimate Northerly

[leicsnow]

As mentioned over in the model discussion thread, the CFS is showing some great charts tonight. 18th January looks particularly nice.

Still throwing up some cracking charts, heres hoping for a beast of a winter! I seem to remember CFS got the severe cold of December 2010 from months in advance...

That's good to know

Edited September 6, 2012 by Tellow

[Thunder Snow]

How are these charts looking for winter as a hole

[Aaron]

Very cold with a lot of snow, duhh

Edited September 7, 2012 by Aaron

[cheeky_monkey]

do they do these charts for North America???

[mcweather]

As mentioned over in the model discussion thread, the CFS is showing some great charts tonight. 18th January looks particularly nice.

That's good to know

You mean those minus 20 uppers over southern England I take it. Very Nice

Edited September 9, 2012 by mcweather

[Robbie Garrett]

Dire run on the CFS, I am sure things will improve as the models engage on the cooling of the upper atmospheric profiles.