April Cet

[DAVID SNOW]

Table of entries and CET trivia

Posted a little before the midnight deadline to help late entrants find a spot ... Further entries will be accepted until end of third day of month with penalties, will edit later entries in as we go.

18.0 .. warmest 3-day end to month (1775)

12.0 .. Craig Evans

11.8 .. warmest on record (2011)

11.2 .. second warmest (2007)

10.6 .. third warmest (1865)

10.2 .. Optimus Prime

10.1 .. Styx

10.0 ..The PIT

9.9 ...

9.8 ... Scorcher

9.7 ...

9.6 ... Sunlover

9.5 ... summer blizzard

9.4 ... Rainbow Snow, ledders69, feb1991blizzard

9.3 ... Milhouse

9.2 ... Static Prevails, Mark Bayley

9.1 ... virtualsphere

9.0 ... DeepSnow, Isolated Frost, Norrance, mark4, Jackone

8.9 ... Ferryhill Weather

8.8 ... Bluebreezer54

8.7 ... Tellow, Stargazer

8.6 ... A Scottish Winter's Tale, Don

8.5 ... Solar Sausage, Stationary Front, The underwriter, Ben_Cambs

.................... --- mean for 1981-2010 ---

8.4 ...

8.3 ... Mr_Data, DAVID SNOW, geoffw, Duncan McAlister

8.2 ... Polar Gael, Thundery winter showers

8.1 ... Alex, Jack Wales, damianslaw, davehsug .... --- mean for 1971-2000 ---

8.0 ... Fozfoster, DR Hosking, BornFromTheVoid, TonyH

7.9 ... Polar Maritime --- mean for 1961-1990 (and 1659-2011) ---

7.8 ... Stormmad26

7.7 ... March Blizzard, coram, Aaron

7.6 ... BrightInBrighton

7.5 ... reef, sundog

7.4 ... stewfox, mulzy

7.3 ...

7.2 ... godber

7.1 ... storms? norfolk n chance

7.0 ... AderynCoch

6.9 ... Roger J Smith

6.8 ...

6.7 ...

6.6 ... goku

6.5 ... AtlanticFlamethrower, BARRY

6.4 ...

6.3 ... joggs

6.2 ...

6.1 ...

6.0 ...

5.9 ...

5.8 ... Coldest recent (1986)

5.7 ...

5.6 ... Robbie Garrett

5.5 ...

5.4 ... Terminal Moraine

5.3 ...

5.2 ... Third coldest (tied) in 1782 and 1809

5.1 ...

5.0 ...

4.9 ...

4.8 ...

4.7 ... Coldest (tied) 4.7 in 1701 and 1837

4.6 ...

4.5 ...

4.4 ...

4.3 ...

4.2 ...

4.1 ...

0.1 ... coldest start (1-3 Apr 1799)

Roger,see post 43,

revised guess before deadlne.Thanks.

[Koppite]

8.1C for me please.

[Kentish Man]

Oops bit late

7.3C please.

[damianslaw]

Going by the 06z GFS, the April CET should be at

5.6C to the 1st

6.3C to the 2nd (7.0)

6.3C to the 3rd (6.2)

5.2C to the 4th (2.0)

4.8C to the 5th (3.3)

4.9C to the 6th (5.1)

5.3C to the 7th (7.9)

5.9C to the 8th (10.0)

I suspect the CET values for the 3rd, 4th and 5th will be well below average with some very low maxima and minima which will probably mean the CET by the 8th will be nearer the 5 than the 6 degree mark.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries and CET trivia

Revised to show late entries and corrected entry -- late entries * per day

18.0 .. warmest 3-day end to month (1775)

12.0 .. Craig Evans

11.8 .. warmest on record (2011)

11.2 .. second warmest (2007)

10.6 .. third warmest (1865)

10.2 .. Optimus Prime

10.1 .. Styx

10.0 ..The PIT

9.9 ...

9.8 ... Scorcher

9.7 ...

9.6 ... Sunlover

9.5 ... summer blizzard

9.4 ... Rainbow Snow, ledders69, feb1991blizzard

9.3 ... Milhouse

9.2 ... Static Prevails, Mark Bayley

9.1 ... virtualsphere

9.0 ... DeepSnow, Isolated Frost, Norrance, mark4, Jackone

8.9 ... Ferryhill Weather

8.8 ... Bluebreezer54

8.7 ... Tellow, Stargazer, Harve**

8.6 ... A Scottish Winter's Tale, Don

8.5 ... Solar Sausage, Stationary Front, The underwriter, Ben_Cambs

.................... --- mean for 1981-2010 ---

8.4 ...

8.3 ... Mr_Data, geoffw, Duncan McAlister

8.2 ... Polar Gael, Thundery winter showers

8.1 ... Alex, Jack Wales, damianslaw, davehsug, Koppite* .... --- mean for 1971-2000 ---

8.0 ... Fozfoster, DR Hosking, BornFromTheVoid, TonyH

7.9 ... Polar Maritime, Paul T* ... --- mean for 1961-1990 (and 1659-2011) ---

7.8 ... DAVID SNOW, Stormmad26

7.7 ... March Blizzard, coram, Aaron

7.6 ... BrightInBrighton

7.5 ... reef, sundog

7.4 ... stewfox, mulzy

7.3 ... Kentish Man*

7.2 ... godber

7.1 ... storms? norfolk n chance

7.0 ... AderynCoch

6.9 ... Roger J Smith

6.8 ...

6.7 ...

6.6 ... goku

6.5 ... AtlanticFlamethrower, BARRY

6.4 ...

6.3 ... joggs

6.2 ...

6.1 ...

6.0 ...

5.9 ...

5.8 ... Coldest recent (1986)

5.7 ...

5.6 ... Robbie Garrett

5.5 ...

5.4 ... Terminal Moraine

5.3 ...

5.2 ... Third coldest (tied) in 1782 and 1809

5.1 ...

5.0 ...

4.9 ...

4.8 ...

4.7 ... Coldest (tied) 4.7 in 1701 and 1837

4.6 ...

4.5 ...

4.4 ...

4.3 ...

4.2 ...

4.1 ...

0.1 ... coldest start (1-3 Apr 1799)

Edited April 2, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[Harve]

An hour late! 8.7c please.

[AderynCoch]

An hour and a day late more like.

[SteveB]

A bit late 9.8c please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

6.3C to the 1^st

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Minimum today is 3.4C while maxima are around 12C, so an increase to about 7C tomorrow is likely.

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 2nd, 0.6c above normal

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Snowstorm1]

Woops ill go for 6c i forgot on holiday atm !

[summer blizzard]

7.2C to the 3rd.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I fear the day one of Craig Evan's predictions come true

[summer blizzard]

I am sure that there has been the odd occasion.

My biggest scalp was probably July 06 when i actually went for 19.5C and even went for 15.2C in August afterwards (ended up warmer though was the most northerly on record), so got the pattern very close that summer for the CET comp.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I fear the day one of Craig Evan's predictions come true

Unless it is a cold biased one in the middle of winter!!

[virtualsphere]

Very early days yet, but what is the biggest CET difference between two consecutive Aprils? With the record high being set last year, if the current set-up continues we might be in with a shot of breaking it.

[AderynCoch]

I fear the day one of Craig Evan's predictions come true

He was only 0.2C out last April and came out joint winner. Just goes to show how ridiculously warm that month was!

Very early days yet, but what is the biggest CET difference between two consecutive Aprils? With the record high being set last year, if the current set-up continues we might be in with a shot of breaking it.

1798 = 10.4

1799 = 5.4

A difference of 5.0C. We'd need to finish lower than 6.8C this year to break that particular record, which is a bit of a stretch but at this stage still doable nevertheless.

Edited April 4, 2012 by AderynCoch

[damianslaw]

The milder conditions in the south of england and readings at Benson are holding the CET up at present - the final CET figure this month could mask very marked differences between north and south - the first half of the month at least looks a colder than average one for the northern half of the country - but nearer average further south.

CET will take a dive tomorrow, thanks to the low maxima of today and low minima, indeed a very cold CET value for April will be recorded.

[reef]

It was indeed a very cold day in the CET zone yesterday with a mean of 3.8C.

That takes Hadley to 6.3C to the 4th.

Today's min is 2.1C due to a combination of cloudcover and the breeze. Tonight will be much colder in southern areas though.

[Roger J Smith]

Final Table of entries and CET trivia

Revised to show late entries and corrected entry -- late entries * per day

18.0 .. warmest 3-day end to month (1775)

12.0 .. Craig Evans

11.8 .. warmest on record (2011)

11.2 .. second warmest (2007)

10.6 .. third warmest (1865)

10.2 .. Optimus Prime

10.1 .. Styx

10.0 ..The PIT

9.9 ...

9.8 ... Scorcher, SteveB**

9.7 ...

9.6 ... Sunlover

9.5 ... summer blizzard

9.4 ... Rainbow Snow, ledders69, feb1991blizzard

9.3 ... Milhouse

9.2 ... Static Prevails, Mark Bayley

9.1 ... virtualsphere

9.0 ... DeepSnow, Isolated Frost, Norrance, mark4, Jackone

8.9 ... Ferryhill Weather

8.8 ... Bluebreezer54

8.7 ... Tellow, Stargazer, Harve**

8.6 ... A Scottish Winter's Tale, Don

8.5 ... Solar Sausage, Stationary Front, The underwriter, Ben_Cambs

.................... --- mean for 1981-2010 ---

8.4 ...

8.3 ... Mr_Data, geoffw, Duncan McAlister

8.2 ... Polar Gael, Thundery winter showers

8.1 ... Alex, Jack Wales, damianslaw, davehsug, Koppite* .... --- mean for 1971-2000 ---

8.0 ... Fozfoster, DR Hosking, BornFromTheVoid, TonyH

7.9 ... Polar Maritime, Paul T* ... --- mean for 1961-1990 (and 1659-2011) ---

7.8 ... DAVID SNOW, Stormmad26

7.7 ... March Blizzard, coram, Aaron

7.6 ... BrightInBrighton

7.5 ... reef, sundog

7.4 ... stewfox, mulzy

7.3 ... Kentish Man*

7.2 ... godber

7.1 ... storms? norfolk n chance

7.0 ... AderynCoch

6.9 ... Roger J Smith

6.8 ...

6.7 ...

6.6 ... goku

6.5 ... AtlanticFlamethrower, BARRY

6.4 ...

6.3 ... joggs

6.2 ...

6.1 ...

6.0 ... Snowstorm1 ***

5.9 ...

5.8 ... Coldest recent (1986)

5.7 ...

5.6 ... Robbie Garrett

5.5 ...

5.4 ... Terminal Moraine

5.3 ...

5.2 ... Third coldest (tied) in 1782 and 1809

5.1 ...

5.0 ...

4.9 ...

4.8 ...

4.7 ... Coldest (tied) 4.7 in 1701 and 1837

4.6 ...

4.5 ...

4.4 ...

4.3 ...

4.2 ...

4.1 ...

0.1 ... coldest start (1-3 Apr 1799)

[virtualsphere]

1798 = 10.4

1799 = 5.4

A difference of 5.0C. We'd need to finish lower than 6.8C this year to break that particular record, which is a bit of a stretch but at this stage still doable nevertheless.

Thanks for clarifying. I don't think we've been below 6.8C since 1989 so that's a tall order, but much more likely than the 5.4C needed in 1799. Interestingly April 1989 followed a mild winter and also had a warmer March than April - maybe we'll have the same this year.

[damianslaw]

Thanks for clarifying. I don't think we've been below 6.8C since 1989 so that's a tall order, but much more likely than the 5.4C needed in 1799. Interestingly April 1989 followed a mild winter and also had a warmer March than April - maybe we'll have the same this year.

It also preceeded a very warm dry May and summer....

CET will take another dive tomorrow, thanks to a very cold night in central and southern parts, maxima also struggled in central parts today, and away from the south coast will struggle again tomorrow. So it does look like being a cold start to April overall- nothing exceptional, but notably cold all the same. Next week looks average at best and if anything more below average than above, so a cold first half to the month does look likely making it difficult for anything other than a slightly above average month to be recorded, but we have been here before during the feb just gone, when it was looking very unlikely that anything other than slightly above average at best would be recorded by the end of the first week, but as we know the outlook started to look very different as we moved further through the second week - mind I really can't see any major warm up for the second half, and any warm up that does occur will be much weaker this time around.

[summer blizzard]

6.2C to the 5th, possibly the coolest start to April since 2008.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Have a feeling my CET prediction of 9.4*C is going to end up being a little to high. If the things go the way they are on the models, then I think we could indeed end up having a below average April on our hands. Though if a second warm half does occur with a week of very warmth Southerly winds or something, then it could still be enough to bring it above average.

[Weather-history]

Good Friday came in as provisionally 4.7C, lower than any daily CET mean recorded between 20th December 2011 and 12th January 2012 inclusive.