April Cet

[95 Degrees]

7.6C.

[Roger J Smith]

6.9 C after a massive downward correction facilitated by my generous donation to the Hadley centre.

Will post a table of entries some time shortly after midnight, note that I listed some CET data in an earlier post for anyone wondering about averages and extremes, seems that AGW loves April.

[Don]

8.6C please. Not a cold month overall but will feel decidedly different to last year! I expect the first half to be on the cold side with a possibly warmer though not exceptional second half. If the warmer second half fails my CET guess will be too high for once!

[coram]

7.7 please

[reef]

A coldish one at 1.0C below the 1981-2010 average:

7.5C

[damianslaw]

I think the anomalous mildness of recent months, is making many cautious in their CET predictions, the signals do suggest a much nearer average month CET wise at least and quite possibly quite a bit below average, but we had similiar signals for Feb, with the meto on that occasion calling a cold month only to change its mind as the second week commenced, whereas now, it is suggesting an average/bit milder than normal month, I think this has influenced many peoples' judgement, even mine it has to be said. However, I do think the chances of a significantly colder than average month occuring in April 2012 are the highest for any month since July last year. Northerly and easterly airstreams are much more likely to sustain themselves in April than in any other month, thanks to the atlantic being at its weakest in influence during April than any other month.

Indeed this April has a very high probability of ending up colder than the March just gone - not sure when this last happened? possibly not since 1989?, 1989 is an interesting case in point coming on the back of an exceptionally mild winter and mild March.

[AderynCoch]

7.0

Part-hopecast. We're long overdue a cold April.

[godber]

i'm hoping to be a bit closer than the last few months,with what is increasingly looking like a cold month. so with that in mind 7.2c.

[Weather-history]

.

Indeed this April has a very high probability of ending up colder than the March just gone - not sure when this last happened? possibly not since 1989?, 1989 is an interesting case in point coming on the back of an exceptionally mild winter and mild March.

1998, it also happened in 1990

[Aaron]

7.7

Celsius not Fahrenheit!

Edited March 31, 2012 by Aaron

[damianslaw]

1998, it also happened in 1990

Thanks Mr Data - wasn't sure about 1998, thought March was slightly colder. Not surprised at 1990 given the very mild March.

There is a strong correlation here of very mild winters and March's being followed by cold Aprils', indeed winters 88/89, 89/90 and 97/98 are in the top 10 mildest on record.. mmm.. can this April break the recent cycle of very mild months...

Thanks Mr Data - wasn't sure about 1998, thought March was slightly colder. Not surprised at 1990 given the very mild March.

There is a strong correlation here of very mild winters and March's being followed by cold Aprils', indeed winters 88/89, 89/90 and 97/98 are in the top 10 mildest on record.. mmm.. can this April break the recent cycle of very mild months...

Also what is also interesting about those three years is how they all produced a very decent May, with plenty of warm/very warm sunny dry weather.. some of the best Mays' in the last 25 years occured in 1989, 1990 and 1998...

[Thundery wintry showers]

8.2

[davehsug]

8.1C please

[Ben_Cambs]

8.5C please.

[feb1991blizzard]

Cold start and maybe a cold month overall for Northern Britain but a transition to milder weather for central England earlier and a Hot last few days of month.

9.4 please.

[Evening thunder]

7.8C - although I was about 2C too low for March I think I'll stick with my original thoughts as I'd probably regret it later if I changed it.

[BARRY]

6.5c

[J10]

I'll go for a mild one as well.

10.0c

I know I should know better but I'll change my guess to 9.0c, still mild but the cold start will offset this a bit.

[Duncan McAlister]

8.3C please.

[Don]

Also what is also interesting about those three years is how they all produced a very decent May, with plenty of warm/very warm sunny dry weather.. some of the best Mays' in the last 25 years occured in 1989, 1990 and 1998...

And current signals are pointing towards a warm May this year too.

Edited March 31, 2012 by Don

[TonyH]

8.0c please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries and CET trivia

Posted a little before the midnight deadline to help late entrants find a spot ... Further entries will be accepted until end of third day of month with penalties, will edit later entries in as we go.

18.0 .. warmest 3-day end to month (1775)

12.0 .. Craig Evans

11.8 .. warmest on record (2011)

11.2 .. second warmest (2007)

10.6 .. third warmest (1865)

10.2 .. Optimus Prime

10.1 .. Styx

10.0 ..The PIT

9.9 ...

9.8 ... Scorcher

9.7 ...

9.6 ... Sunlover

9.5 ... summer blizzard

9.4 ... Rainbow Snow, ledders69, feb1991blizzard

9.3 ... Milhouse

9.2 ... Static Prevails, Mark Bayley

9.1 ... virtualsphere

9.0 ... DeepSnow, Isolated Frost, Norrance, mark4, Jackone

8.9 ... Ferryhill Weather

8.8 ... Bluebreezer54

8.7 ... Tellow, Stargazer

8.6 ... A Scottish Winter's Tale, Don

8.5 ... Solar Sausage, Stationary Front, The underwriter, Ben_Cambs

.................... --- mean for 1981-2010 ---

8.4 ...

8.3 ... Mr_Data, DAVID SNOW, geoffw, Duncan McAlister

8.2 ... Polar Gael, Thundery winter showers

8.1 ... Alex, Jack Wales, damianslaw, davehsug .... --- mean for 1971-2000 ---

8.0 ... Fozfoster, DR Hosking, BornFromTheVoid, TonyH

7.9 ... Polar Maritime --- mean for 1961-1990 (and 1659-2011) ---

7.8 ... Stormmad26

7.7 ... March Blizzard, coram, Aaron

7.6 ... BrightInBrighton

7.5 ... reef, sundog

7.4 ... stewfox, mulzy

7.3 ...

7.2 ... godber

7.1 ... storms? norfolk n chance

7.0 ... AderynCoch

6.9 ... Roger J Smith

6.8 ...

6.7 ...

6.6 ... goku

6.5 ... AtlanticFlamethrower, BARRY

6.4 ...

6.3 ... joggs

6.2 ...

6.1 ...

6.0 ...

5.9 ...

5.8 ... Coldest recent (1986)

5.7 ...

5.6 ... Robbie Garrett

5.5 ...

5.4 ... Terminal Moraine

5.3 ...

5.2 ... Third coldest (tied) in 1782 and 1809

5.1 ...

5.0 ...

4.9 ...

4.8 ...

4.7 ... Coldest (tied) 4.7 in 1701 and 1837

4.6 ...

4.5 ...

4.4 ...

4.3 ...

4.2 ...

4.1 ...

0.1 ... coldest start (1-3 Apr 1799)

Edited April 1, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[sundog]

7.5 for me please.

[Paul T]

7.9

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the 06z GFS, the April CET should be at

5.6C to the 1st

6.3C to the 2nd (7.0)

6.3C to the 3rd (6.2)

5.2C to the 4th (2.0)

4.8C to the 5th (3.3)

4.9C to the 6th (5.1)

5.3C to the 7th (7.9)

5.9C to the 8th (10.0)