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The above summer forecast verified reasonably well in most cases, the prediction implied a top ten outcome and in fact the summer was around 3rd to 5th warmest on record depending on which data you us

Detailed version -- highly variable winter pattern expected     As promised, here are some more detailed predictions based on my research. I have tried to assess all the information offered in vari

2014/15 Winter Forecast    My attempt at a winter forecast. Some of the theory is taken from a previous project i undertook at University. I have attached references that i have used/think may be of

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Thanks Roger an excellent read albeit not one I hope bears any fruit, looking at the current North Atlantic SST'S  and if they stay as they are then your forecast will not be that far off. 

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    thanks Roger-as always we have to wait and see what mother nature sends our way.

    An awful lot of work in your post though-many thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    thanks Roger-as always we have to wait and see what mother nature sends our way.

    An awful lot of work in your post though-many thanks

    And not a million miles away from MR's effort in the MOD John, which you were quick to call 'silly'.  Personally I have no faith whatsover in LRF's, certainly not ones that go beyond 30 days and definately not ones that span 5 or 6 months. However that said all are equally valid imo, whether they be deeply researched and well presented, or one liners written on the back of a fag packet.

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    And not a million miles away from SI's effort in the MOD John, which you were quick to call 'silly'.  Personally I have no faith whatsover in LRF's, certainly not ones that go beyond 30 days and definately not ones that span 5 or 6 months. However that said all are equally valid imo, whether they be deeply researched and well presented, or one liners written on the back of a fag packet.

    It wasn't me shed, it was modelrollercoaster.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    And not a million miles away from MR's effort in the MOD John, which you were quick to call 'silly'.  Personally I have no faith whatsover in LRF's, certainly not ones that go beyond 30 days and definately not ones that span 5 or 6 months. However that said all are equally valid imo, whether they be deeply researched and well presented, or one liners written on the back of a fag packet.

     

    I remain with my view shed as you do. My reason is Roger, for those prepared to plough through his old work, makes his forecast based on data NOT simply doing a one liner-can we drop it please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Thanks for the forecast Roger.  Unfortunately I'm struggling to muster up much enthusiasm for it!

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    thanks Roger nice work. As much as i like your work i really hope this time your calling it wrong. Shedhead model rolacoster wasnt making a forecast he made a statement how w2013-2014 was over with rain and flooding before it even started. So jhon gave his view and i think it was a faire comment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I'm still on the fence....although I have to say that a certain approximate 132 yr solar analogue cycle points RJS' way,

    Best I book a ski holiday to get my 'fix' just in case Posted Image .  Mind you there is a grander cycle that indicates a serious freeze through jan and Feb.

    Hats off to Roger again for his LRF, his theory is that it more or less generally remains the same however far out he posts his lrf... that's the system.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

     

    I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

     

    I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

    So the general pattern will change from:

     

    this

    Posted Image

     

    to this

    Posted Image

     

    With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

    Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

     

     

    I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

    I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

    I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

     

    Not a particularly promising sign for coldies with a mid Atlantic ridge (for sustained cold at least).

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Not a particularly promising sign for coldies with a mid Atlantic ridge (for sustained cold at least).

     

    Well, to clarify, it's a mid-Atlantic/southern Greenland ridge (not quite a Greeny high). It has the potential to pull in some northerly flows anyway.

     

    Here's a teaser of what December is looking like at the moment, though it may change very slightly when I do the full winter forecast next month

     

    Posted Image

     

    I think there's plenty of potential there anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Well, to clarify, it's a mid-Atlantic/southern Greenland ridge (not quite a Greeny high). It has the potential to pull in some northerly flows anyway.

     

    Here's a teaser of what December is looking like at the moment, though it may change very slightly when I do the full winter forecast next month

     

    Posted Image

     

    I think there's plenty of potential there anyway.

    Ah, thanks for clarifying BFTV.  Not a bad signal then!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Well, to clarify, it's a mid-Atlantic/southern Greenland ridge (not quite a Greeny high). It has the potential to pull in some northerly flows anyway.

     

    Here's a teaser of what December is looking like at the moment, though it may change very slightly when I do the full winter forecast next month

     

    Posted Image

     

    I think there's plenty of potential there anyway.

    I'll take that BFTV, keep up the excellent work.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

     

    I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

     

    I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

    So the general pattern will change from:

     

    this

    Posted Image

     

    to this

    Posted Image

     

    With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

    Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

     

     

    I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

    I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

    I'll post my Nov thoughts probably by Monday BFTV, interesting that out Oct weren't too dissimilar and maybe a little surprise still to come with beefiness of LPs.  I have an interesting Nov outlook.  Dec looks a corker on youur early analysis....I'd take that.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Not a particularly promising sign for coldies with a mid Atlantic ridge (for sustained cold at least).

    A mid Atlantic ridge is certainly no bad thing in that even if we see it struggle to build over Greenland it will generally produce dry weather and northerly topplers.
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    A mid Atlantic ridge is certainly no bad thing in that even if we see it struggle to build over Greenland it will generally produce dry weather and northerly topplers.

     

    A recurrent mid atlantic ridge is bound to produce some cold spells at times over the course of a winter but I really hate those round things with 7c and sun and minimums of -1c that just bring around tropical air a bit diluted. it depends on how far West, how far North and the orientation of them TBH.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    A recurrent mid atlantic ridge is bound to produce some cold spells at times over the course of a winter but I really hate those round things with 7c and sun and minimums of -1c that just bring around tropical air a bit diluted. it depends on how far West, how far North and the orientation of them TBH.

    That was pretty much Nov 04 to Jan 05 (bar a brief Bartlett period and the Scottish storms), that was a result of a constant high just to the south west, we did see pressure finally build in late Feb though as the easterly returned. A much better winter was the following winter of 06 which saw a good stream of northerly topplers and the high sat right on top.
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    That was pretty much Nov 04 to Jan 05 (bar a brief Bartlett period and the Scottish storms), that was a result of a constant high just to the south west, we did see pressure finally build in late Feb though as the easterly returned. A much better winter was the following winter of 06 which saw a good stream of northerly topplers and the high sat right on top.

    November 2004 to January 2005 was terrible for the south.  Winter 2004/05 was saved from being a stinker by February.  Just a great shame that Europe had been so mild meaning that the prolonged cold spell failed to deliver as much as it could have done.  Winter 2005/06 may have been the coldest since 1996/97 but for the south it was dry with little in the way of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

    November 2004 to January 2005 was terrible for the south.  Winter 2004/05 was saved from being a stinker by February.  Just a great shame that Europe had been so mild meaning that the prolonged cold spell failed to deliver as much as it could have done.  Winter 2005/06 may have been the coldest since 1996/97 but for the south it was dry with little in the way of snow.

     

    It snowed on Boxing Day 2004 in South Wales :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

     

    I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

     

    I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

    So the general pattern will change from:

     

    this

    Posted Image

     

    to this

    Posted Image

     

    With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

    Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

     

     

    I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

    I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

     

    I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

     

    I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

     

    I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

    So the general pattern will change from:

     

    this

    Posted Image

     

    to this

    Posted Image

     

    With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

    Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

     

     

    I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

    I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

    I meant to say yeaterday, but didn't get around to, that your modified November H500 analogue fits in very nicely with what I expect to see as well. I expect November to be characterized by a stronger PV though but with a strong Atlantic ridge also with the positive anomaly stretching towards the UK - and I have used completely different analogue years to formulate mine. However, December's anomaly chart differs completely - but if the November anomaly chart holds true then there will be the opportunity for cold snaps to develop around the back of the Atlantic ridge. Sometimes ( like now!)

     

    post-4523-0-12347700-1382215583_thumb.pn

     

    a southern Greenland based positive anomaly (ridge) doesn't deliver anyway and we actually need that positive anomaly to stretch down into the Atlantic!

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