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A Winter's Tale

The Seasonal Forecast Thread

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I thought it would be a good idea to start a member's seasonal forecast thread starting with forecasts for Spring 2012 and then onwards. Also, you could include the seasonal forecasts of other forecasting organisations.

It'd be interesting to see everyone's thoughts on Spring and the reasons for a particulary outlook. Following on from the winter thread where it was hard to find a really accurate members forecast - and the Netweather forecast was with not doubt the best forecast published - I think that with more attempts at seasonal forecasting we may learn to see what we're doing wrong which could mean that next winter's forecasts may be more accurate than this year.

So, like the Winter Forecasts, give reasons and factors for your forecast, describe the conditions for the UK, the synoptic reasons etc.

All entries should ideally be in before Midnight 2nd March.

It'll be interesting to see how accurate we'll get this time and which member's would be crowned with the best seasonal forecast for each season.

Good Luck!

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CSS Spring Forecast 2012


Overview

With Winter being mainly Atlantic dominated with a persistent Azores High, I believe that a very interesting Spring is on the cards. I believe that March will start of Atlantic Dominated but I do believe that we will see it become quieter - I believe that his could result in a mixture of cold and warm spells for March and April with plenty of sunshine and increasing the risk of drought although showers may still be possible in the NW. I believe, usually, we'd atleast expect a decent warm spell between Mid April and Mid June so I'm confident that May will see periods of warmth, sunshine and potential thundery breakdowns but it's a question of whether May would continue being generally warm and dry or will the Atlantic return bring wet conditions but with a possibility for cool, showery conditions. I believe that this Spring will be pivotal in the summer that we get - particulary April and May so a warm theme of May well carry on into June but eventually the Atlantic may return leading to poor periods in summer.


MARCH


March is set to start of a wet, windy, unsettled and mild note with some sunny, showery spells between fronts. However as we progress through the month, I expect there to be an increase in northerly outbreaks and potential easterlies as we see height rises return either over Iceland or Greenland. This would mean that the jet stream will move south for periods resulting in spells that include northerlies with snow showers to the north but generally sunny conditions, however the Atlantic will intervene at times. Towards the final third of the month, I expect to see some warmer days mixed in with the northerlies, fronts and a continued sunny flavour.


APRIL


I expect April to start on a showery note with westerly winds, these generally cool but there may be the odd warmer day thrown in. However, eventually I see winds turning to more of a northerly setting up and cool-cold early-middle part of the month with a continued risk of snow to the north. Following this, I expect a return to fronts from the west breaking up long, periods of generally sunny conditions with a mixture of settled to showery, cool to warm. During the final part of the month, I expect temperatures to be on rise and more undisturbed periods of sunshine.


MAY


I expect the very early stages of May to see sunny, but pleasant to warm temperatures with the odd cool night as the April shower regime begins to fade out. As we progress, we'll see an increase in temperatures but there may be the odd front to break up seperate periods of sunshine and warmth. Towards the middle of the month, I expect the Atlantic to return and subsequently there may initially be some thundery conditions. Following this we may see a period with low pressure systems crossing over the UK bringing rain, but clearing quickly to introduce cooler but sunny conditions with the threat of wintryness on the northern hills. There may also be the odd day thrown in. This shouldn't last too long as to finish off the month, I expect a trend for a return to sunnier conditions with warmth but these periods may be regular - but short lived.


CSS

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Exacta Weather have had an awful winter and I think that their repuation has just about all gone down the drain.

Here's their latest output and it says that their Spring forecast will be released on March 1st.

I wonder what it'll say this time, "I expect largely below average temperatures and widespread snowfall for much of Spring".

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ElectricSnowStorm's Spring Forecast:

My Spring LRF 2012 Preview:

Early spring-March

Mid-April

Late-May

  • March(early) - Wet and Cold with Low pressure systems moving across from the Atlantic bringing with them snowfall at times, coldest in the East and EA/SE, some frosty/foggy spells as ridges of high pressure replace the weather systems, wintry for many, possibly warming up in the South late March with high pressure quite strong from the s/sw, cold in the North.
  • April(lmid) - Warmth arriving in the South early month with drier then average, cool/mild in the North with more wetter conditions especially the northwest. mid to the end of this month Southern areas seeing high pressure with warm or very warm and dry conditions, depending on how far North the high pressure moves would mean how far North the nice weather gets and how much the wetter weather gets pushed away North, can't say at this stage how far would ridge North, but its looking dry and warm for the South.
  • May(late) - Very warm and Mostly Dry month with the Azores high in place, although storms/showers could occur as i expect a warm moist flow from the south at times as deep lows move near by in the Atlantic-and when this situation does develop then flash local storms could occur, although most lows pushing across the far North some might move up from the south as thundery lows, at this stage it is really not possible to predict such set ups, but on a larger scale i see a dry month in terms of widespread rainfall, also i expect the Jetstream pattern to be much more different then last spring(more details in the forecast)
  • Overall - I am expecting a cold and wintry start to spring, with a drier and warmer 2nd half in the South and more cooler and wetter in the North, it does depend on how far North the high pressure can make it to how warm and dry the North becomes rather then cool and at times wet.
  • Spring 2012:
  • Early:Cold wintry start North to South
  • Mid-Late: warm&dry South/cool&wet North, if high from south ridges north then warmer and dryier in the north, Jet stream pattern would result in changes.
  • Colder then Average March overall
  • Drier then Average April in the South
ESS

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Hello, here is the definitive list of the forecasts. I've rated each month out of 10, added the 3 months together to get an overall rating of the winter month.

Here are all the forecasts from most accurate to the least:

1. GP

Key Points:

· A Winter of two halves

· Start of Winter mildest

· End of Winter coldest

· Rainfall close to average

Most likely time of pattern change is late January-main cold to arrive from east not north-January uncertain but December above normal and February strong signal for below average temperature-below normal rainfall for the winter but wetter than normal for southern England

22

2. Lady of the Storm

Ive just had a look at Stewart Ramplings prelimary thoughts video, Im not convinced he is thinking a cold start to winter, possibly a cold end though. I am still going for an atcive mobile winter, just like I said a few months ago. However I think using the phrase "the earliest we will see this is Feb" which was in realtion to Stratospheric warming events, is the giveaway for a cold, late Spring.

The weather over the summer is behaving very much like 1998, which I have mentioned in some of my other posts, Stewart reinforced that idea in his little presentation on one of the pwerpoint slides.

December CET: +0.6 above average: The main driver is a postive AO, with the high pressure over Greenland weak and transistionary. I think December will be a very mobile month with very large areas of low pressure bringing in wind and rain, above average temps, as high pressue over eastern Europe and Low pressure over the atlantic draws in warmer air from Africa. However still think our cold spells will come from The NW and North as low pressure moves off into the near continent, dragging in cooler air behind. No sustained cold Im afarid. Looks like being a brown grey christmas. This is potentially a very stormy month (Just like 1998 that had the boxing day storms up here in the north).

9

January CET -0.3C below the average, A little more blocking to the North calming down a brewing Atlantic, AO should be turning slightly negative by then. Wintry outbreaks from the north again and possible return of high pressure over the atlantic allowing cooler air down over the UK. Another transitionary phase of atlantic weather possible late January.

4

February CET -0.1C Just slightly below average . I dont think the Stratosphere will warm up in time for the end of winter, Possible sttled dry weather. High pressure dominating (just as it did Feb 2011).

6 = 19

Coolest minimaTemperature -17C Altnaharra in January ( that isnt rocket science).

Warmest Maxima Temperture +15C Somewhere along the South Coast in December.

The good news is for snow lovers, that we should get some snow in January, rather than extreme penetrating frosts, and hardened grey slush.

3. Roger J. Smith

DECEMBER may be a roller coaster of mild and cold spells. The coldest part of the month is likely to come around the 15th to 20th. Before that, the first two weeks may include some strong winds from deep Atlantic lows, heavy rainfalls, brief intervals of hail or snow, but eventually, arctic air should develop and there could be snow on the ground at times just before Christmas. Then the Christmas holiday period is expected to turn milder with fog and rain especially around the 27th when it could once again become rather stormy. By New Years Eve it may be turning a lot colder.

8

JANUARY may be "the" month for this coming winter, and there may be several occasions with snow although the first week to ten days may start with more of a northwest flow that would restrict snow to western and northern regions. This could be a windy period in general before deeper cold arrives probably from a Scandinavian high. This should direct the winds more easterly and give the higher snowfall potential in central and eastern counties. Severe frost may develop and the CET estimate (1.5) is conservative depending on snow cover feedback, but frost days seem very likely around mid-January. There may be further snowfalls later in the month as the storm track tries to push back north.

5

FEBRUARY could start out cold and snowy but the model output shows a strong warming early in the month and a peak of very mild conditions in mid to late February. This suggests that southerly flow may predominate and reverse the cold pattern to mild or even very mild. It may be rather dry in this pattern for the south and east, trending to wet in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

5= 18

4. Gavin P

Winter 2011/2012 Forecast

This forecast is based on the following points:

1. Extended, weak solar activity and still below normal, but increasing sunspot activity.

2. Weak La Nina persisting into the middle of winter, before fading back towards neutral by spring.

3. Cold PDO/Warm AMO combination similar to 1950's (this is a wild card because it looks like the

AMO is becoming neutral or cold, which tends to favour troughiness over us, particularly when combined with La Nina)

4. October rainfall coming out at 94% of the average for England and Wales.

5. Active hurricane season.

6. Above average, but rather late snow cover across Siberia.

Most of the pointers I look at to compile a winter forecast are telling me the winter of 2011/2012 should be colder than average.

It would be very unusual to get a fourth colder than average winter on the bounce, however, I cannot ignore my methodology. So this forecast is going to predict a colder than average winter.

I'm thinking at least two of the three winter months will be colder than average.

DECEMBER:

I'm expecting December to be rather disturbed in the first half of the month, with quite deep areas of low pressure moving into the country producing wind storms,heavy rain and possibly snow. We should see big temperature variations during this period

Sometime around mid December I think we'll get a spell of high pressure, initially producing a mild, dry spell, but tending to become colder as the high becomes located over the country.

Christmas itself could be dry, cold and frosty with very little if any snow lying.

Between Christmas and New Year I expect a cold snap to develop, probably from the north, with wintry weather for many.

CET Temperature 0.5c above normal. Precipitation 100% of the average.

5

JANUARY

January might see cold and mild weather waxing and waning, but as we go into the later part of the month the emphasis will increasingly shift towards cold.

The New Year period should be cold and wintry, but then I'd expect a thaw as the weather becomes more Atlantic dominated for a time.

Mid month onwards we're at risk of increasingly cold and snowy conditions, though milder Atlantic air should push in for a time, once again.

The end of the month may turn very cold as a big area of high pressure develops over Scandinavia and brings winds around the east.

Temperature 1.0c below average. Precipitation 100% of the average.

5

FEBRUARY

February looks potentially the coldest month of the winter with high pressure dominating over Scandinavia and possibly Greenland also. The NAO/AO may go extremely negative, locking us into a prolonged and very cold spell of weather.

The first half of February may be the sevierest spell of the winter, with maxima staying around freezing all day and lots of snow and severe frosts as well.

The second half of the month should find low pressure attacking from the south-west as the blocking highs slowly lose their influence. So gradually it should turn milder with snow turning more to rain, though this could be a pretty slow process.

I think we end the month on a milder and unsettled note with snow confined to upland northern regions.

*I think there is a small, but not insignificant risk of February being a severe month on a par with Februaries of 1956 and 1986. At this stage I would rate this chance as around 25%. What goes against that risk is that I think the Atlantic will be attacking from time to time later in the month. This increases the risk of snow, but perversely also stops the cold from becoming too severe for an extended period.*

Temperature 2.0c below average. Precipitation 100% of the average.

6 = 16

5. EML Network

December : Likely to be a continuation of drought for Southern and Eastern Areas, cold (but not excessivly so) by day, and where winds fall light under High Pressure plenty of frosts.

Always wetter in the NW of the UK, and some North Westerly's from time to time clipping Scotland giving plenty more mountain and hilltop snow, a mixture of wintery showers further south as occasional and temporary northerly incursions move south over NE England.

Midlands likely to see the best of any sunshine , a lot of mist and fog along Southern and some Eastern coasts.

A generally windy theme for Ireland and the NW.

I still think that things will change sometime around 20th Dec, the feed of weather to become increasingly Northerly, although Im not so sure how long this will last, it could well be that the winds and weather direction swing to a more North Easterly, and if this happens the East, North East, South East, and Scotland could well see a White x-mas, the west closer to High Pressure, and here we could see a battleground scenario take place.

If High Pressue holds firm, this could last until the beginning of Jan, but I think it's more likely that well see the blocking pattern move and end up more to the South of the UK, allowing the atlantic to slip through once again.

5

Jan I think we'll see a gradual increase in temperatures as we go through January, and a very mixed month to follow.

Lots of rain, strong winds, but also plenty of sunshine around, and some bright crisp days, High Pressure shifting around to be centered over the UK at times, Low Pressure feeding in from the North at times, to give more mountain snow, and snow over the hills of Northern England, Wales, and also parts of Ireland, but weather also encroaching from the South West at times, raising temperatures ntionwide as it does so

No real dominating pattern, so any blocking is likely to be temporary, resulting in a few cold days, perhaps a couple of snowy days almost anywhere, but I dont see there being day after day of cold.

Winds generally quite strong and when the feed is from the North, temporary blizzard conditions likely in Scotland.

7

FEB I Think Feb is likely to start off quite settled, but I believe that the UK is going to find itself sandwiched between 2 large High Pressure systems.

One over scandi, and one over Iceland, the result is the direcion of our weather from an etremely cold north, a true blast of winter finally comes, and as fronts move south, they drag in more North Easterly winds, and blanket much of the UK in snow, I think there will be a series of fronts passing from the NE of the UK, moving SE and we'll have a very cold first 2 weeks of Feb.

Generally overcast, winds brisk, but not extremely so, and temperatures very cold, lots of ice.

Just before mid Feb, things start to warm up, and a gradual increase in temperatures, winds fall light, and a slow thaw of any lying snow.

We might see a very stormy and wet end to Feb.

3 = 15

6. Lomond Snow Storm

December

The first third of the month looks likely to be very unsettled, with very low heights to the north and Polar Maritime incursions if and when the trough tilts NW to SE (but of course, the usual health warnings about believing fantasy charts apply). Precipitation widely above average, temperatures generally close to average, though much colder in northern areas. Even here, though, any snowfall will be largely transient even on high ground with frosts certainly coming at a premium. Into mid-month, I'd bank on a return to more settled conditions, with high pressure fairly close to the southeast of the UK, and temperatures generally above average and precipitation below average, though perhaps around average in the northwest. Christmas may well coincide with a return to less settled conditions and perhaps a transient cold spell from the north before milder air returns at the end of the month. Overall, then, a milder than average month for most of the UK, though for Scotland it may well end up being close to average. Precipitation somewhat above average, probably moreso in the north than south, but there may be a slight easing of drought conditions in the southeast. There's a very high chance of a NW/SE split in snowfall prospects, with most of central and southern England seeing no lying snow in December and snowfall being above average in Northwest Scotland. East-central Scotland's snowlovers will suffer badly from lack of northerly exposure, though depending on 'snowshield' formation I wouldn't rule out one significant but short lived snowfall accumulation.

CET punt - 5.1C Scotland mean 3.2C

7

January

A very mild southerly flow will gradually give way to drier conditions as high pressure builds in from the southeast. This quieter spell of weather will usher in the change to colder conditions as the high retrogrades to northern Scandinavia. Snowfall will initially be confined to southeast England with dull, drizzly conditions further up the east coast and sunshine for western areas.However, as the high moves northwards and colder uppers move westwards across the continent showers will become more widespread and intense to end the month. Precipitation will be around average in southern and eastern England but well below, for once, across Ireland and Western Scotland. Snowfall amounts will depend on the timing of the SSW but again I see a NW/SE split, this time with the southeast most likely to see above average snowfall. Eastern Scotland, particularly coastal parts, could well endure a spell of intensely dull weather mid-month with a chilly southeasterly flow uppers not quite low enough for a 'sunshine and showers' regime before the real cold arrives.

CET punt - 3.6C Scotland mean - 2.6C

3

February

February will begin with a period of intense cold and snowfall with the south bearing the brunt of the snowfall from 'channel lows'. At times, low pressure will become more dominant, temporarily shifting the focus further north and melting accumulations in the south and near the east coast. Showers will again become confined to the southeast as the high builds southwards, bringing the coldest minima of the winter in deep snowcover. This will then be followed by a reload midmonth from the northeast bringing more convective snowfall right down the east coast.. The month ends with a rather messy breakdown taking place and neither airmass winning out until well into March, ensuring a gradual thaw. Precipitation will again be well below average in the northwest with central, southern and eastern parts seeing the most precipitation. For Scotland, the southeast will receive the brunt of the snowfall, with frontal systems providing most of the snowfall away from the east coast.

CET punt - 1.4C Scotland mean - 1.3C

3=13

Summary

The degree of certainty in the forecast is of course exaggerated. Confidence up to around the end of December is fairly high but the remainder of the forecast is dependent on how a fairly probable stratospheric warming plays out. The building blocks of a dramatic switcharound in midwinter are most definitely there, but whether it comes off or ends up, like February 2009, as something of a disappointment remains to be seen. Here's the composite for temperature Posted Image and precipitation Posted Image

7. Busted Flush

  • Recent, Low Solar Activity
  • La Nina and a predicted strengthening La Nina
  • The consitency of High Pressure over Greenland
  • Current and near future positioning of the jet stream
  • The Weather of the past 12 or so months

FORECAST

DECEMBER 2011:

  • The period 1st-7th December is likely to follow what should be a cooler end to November. I expect December to start off on a cooler note - than what November is likely to be as a whole - with nighttime frost and daytime temperatures of 4C to 9C. This period should bring a mixture of sunshine, cloud and fog to parts of the UK as settled weather prevails. The period should be dominated by low pressure systems with cool polar maritime incursisons following behind the fronts and bringing some wintry weather to parts of the North and West.
  • During the period 7th-14th of December, I expect Low Pressure systems from the west to cross over the United Kingdom, bringing rain, wind, milder temperatures and some wet hill snow in the Highlands. Although temperatures are likely to be milder, I do expect some cool-cold polar maritime incursions between depressions bringing some sunshine (particulary to more southern and eastern areas although cloud may hang on to some coastal areas), some frost (perhpas lasting the entire day of some Northern areas) and wintery showers (most likely to be centered over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland).
  • What I see happening in the period 14th-21st of December is initially Atlantic Dominated before we see High Pressure in Atlantic link up With Higher Pressure in South-Eastern Greenland. The first few days will see a very active atlantic but still with the element of cold topplers behind the fronts and some of these may provide some snow to lower areas in England as some of the topplers will see more cold air than others. Towards the middle and into the latter part I expect to see the signs of Higher Pressure out in the Atlantic and Greenland building.
  • The period 21st -31st December should start of quite unsettled and chilly initially. However as we head towards Christmas I expect the UK to enter a blocked period with a notable northerly spreading south over the UK during Christmas Eve and lasting till late on Boxing Day. An easterly attempt is broken down when Higher Pressure in the Atlantic and Greenland is smashed by strong areas of low pressure. However as we head towards towards the end of the period I expect a battleground snowfall to take place over the UK and perhaps leading to some large accumilations in the Northern Half of the UK. Following the snowfall, there should be a thaw, and a return to less cold conditions with incoming low pressure systems.
3

JANUARY 2012:

  • The New Year should start pretty chilly with snow snow in the NW of Scotland as chilly zonal pattern prevails with some cold topplers. One or two of these topplers could bring some pretty expansive cold air over the UK and the potential threat for some more frontal snowfalls. During this period I expect signs of a warming in the Stratoshphere (perhaps since Christmas).
  • The duration of the 7th-13th of January should see indications of High Pressure Building over Greenland and vague hints of a pressure rise in NE Scandinavia but the period should should be predominatley Atlantic dominated although the jet stream should gradually be moving south and extremes of pretty mild sectors to cold sectors will be felt.
  • The Period 13th-20th January should see High Pressure over Greenland firmly established and more profound than the attempt of Northern Blocking in late December. Initially, the UK Should be pretty chilly, but as very intense cold air from the Arctic comes down in a notable northerly, we should quickly see things turn progressively and substantially colder. By the middle of the period I would expect some pretty heavy snow showers in Shetland and Northern Scotland aswell as NI with night time temperatures widely below freezing and droping to below -10C in the Highlands. However by the end of the period, I would expect some notable and prolonged periods of snowfalls crossing south over Scotland before intensifying over England, Wales and Ireland over the Irish and North Sea. By the end of the period, -15C or lower should have been reached in the Scottish Highlands.
  • Between the 20th and 27th of January, I expect to see a gradual increase in terms of intensity of cold and snow with temperatures of -15C to -20C being reached in the Scottish Highlands throughout the period so really not too much of a change in that area but daytime temperatures and night time temperatures elsewhere should be colder at the end than at the beginning. With conitinuos snow showers in the North and some going further south down eastern and western coasts, there shouldn't be too much of a problem with snow in this cold but quite quiet period of weather. However towards the end of the period, as the Greenland High shows signs of a decline, the potential for heights over Scandinavia increase.
  • The time frame of the 27th - 31st January should be quite active. The start of the period should see temperatures drop lower than that in the first period with some temperatures in the Highlands below -20C and in some cities -10C should have been reached. As winds have a slight NWly element in them, snow showers should become more expansive and prolonged in North and much of the west. However as Heights over Greenland start to dissolve we should see an incoming aprroch of fronts to create an incredibly messy breakdown. However as the fronts head towards the UK and Ireland, I expect heights over Scandinavia to build.
2

FEBUARY 2012:

  • The period 1st-7th of Febuary is expected to see an incredible battle between the milder Atlantic and a very strong and expansive area of High Pressure over Scandinavia. Initially, we should see some impressive snowfalls as milder Atlantic air meets colder Arctic air, however the front(s) are expected to stall over Central and Eastern parts of the UK contributing to some very large snowfalls. In the western edge of the front it should be slightly less cold as the front over the Eastern half of the country dissolves leaving behind small pockets of light snow and some large snow depths. As the front fails to win, the easterly wind locked and trapped by the front is unleashed bringing impressive cold temperatures to all parts of the UK and widespread, heavy, convective snow showers and streamers all the way from Kent to Wick. Eastern and some central parts of England and Scotland should see some very impressive snowfalls and decent depths. In parts of Ireland and southern Wales there may be some impressive snowfalls from streamers and Western Scotland should experiences some snow showers from any streamers. In the eastern Highlands, temperatures of -15 to -25C are possible and in some eastern and northern towns and cities, temperatures of -10 to -20C are possible.
  • The following period of the 7th-14th of Febuary is expected to see the High Pressure over Scandinavia and the Easterly winds to continue. The beginning and ending of the period is likely to see the worst of the snow for much of the east coast and some more prolonged areas of snowfall spreading further inland into more Central and Western areas right up and down the UK. But essentially, the main aspect of the period is the temperatures during the middle with temperatures in Cities such as Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glashow droping to below -15C and -10C being reached in cities further south including London. Snow showers won't be quite as profound, although there will still be some light snow showers in eastern coasts and filtering their way along the Channel, Thames Valley, Central Belt and Midlands. In the Highlands temperatures of -20C are more than likely.
  • The period 14th-21st of Febuary should see the cold continuing during the early stages. However the high pressure over Scandanavia will begin to show signs of fading and this should result in another messy breakdown. The first few days may see some record breaking temperatures and snowfall should increase. However low pressure systems should be able to come near or cross the UK bringing the threat of very large battleground snowfalls in the West. However in the east, there could be asmuch as a 10C difference with an easterly influence and some snow showers. Eventually, each front should gradually creep further east across the UK with precipiation in the far west falling as rain in milder temperatures and very heavy snow falling for anywhere further east. In far eastern areas, the temperatures will be at their lowest and 10C lower than that of the rest of the UK. Once the Atlantic eventually wins, temperatures in the North and East may still be slightly below average and in the south and west it will be slightly milder.
  • The month should end under with a milder Atlantic influence with some very mild temperatures in the South West, however further North and East, and particulary Scotland it will feel, much, much cooler in cool-cold zonality and still further prospects of wintry weather.
5 = 10

AWT

WINTER 2011/2012 FORECAST

December - Coldish Zonality for the first week with blizzard conditions over the highest ground in Scotland but a chance of some slight to moderate accumulations possible down to low levels across some Western Inland areas but more probably in the far North, any significant accumulations for Northen England and North Wales likely to be reserved for the highest ground and then far from certain, some brief sleet or wet snow flakes possible as far south as the South Pennines but certainly no accumulations here, anywhere from the Midlands Southwards very unlikely to see any snow at all.

During the Second week dryer conditions are likely in the south as a ridge of high pressure tries to take charge but the timing is far from certain at this point and and i am very sceptical about any longjevity of the settled spell except perhaps for Southern most counties of England.

From around the 20th onwards i expect a return to very windy and wet conditions in Scotland and the Northern half of England with Western Scotland, North West England and North Wales most areas worst affected with this likely to turn to Snow at times although at low levels more likely to be rain, drier in Eastern Scotland and North East England but Still some heavy bands of rain at times making it across the pennines. Southern areas, particularly the South East may still hang on to some dry and bright weather with some frost and fog here.

Between Christmas and the New year sees the best opportunity of the winter so far for low level snow all the way down the east coast and in the South East as a Brief Northerly with Western areas becoming drier as high pressure quickly topples in.

CET 4.7c

3

RAINFALL - Significantly above average in the North and West, Slightly below average in the South and east.

JANUARY - First half Changeable with some wet and windy spells interspersed with some drier brighter spells with frost and freezing fog at times.

Second half getting progressively colder with a potent easterly delivering heavy Snowfall for the last week with London, the South east, eastern England particularly badly hit. Northern and Western areas drier and brighter but with some heavy Snow showers penetrating to the West at times too.

CET 3.3c

5

RAINFALL - Average

FEBRUARY - First half dry and exceptionally cold with some very low temperatures. Second half milder and wetter but not making up for the first half in terms of temerature or rainfall.

5 = 13

CET 3c

RAINFALL - Below average Northern and Western Areas, Well below average South Eastern Areas.

8. damianslaw

Dec - I have already said in the dec cet thread how I see this month panning out. Very near average, but a very topsy turvy month with no sustained cold weather, alternating cold and mild with a growing threat of much colder conditions towards end of the month from a northerly especially for the north.

5

Jan - below average, potentially significantly so, but at this stage I will say it won't be quite as cold as Jan 2010. New year starting on a cold note thanks to northerly airstream but then the atlantic will move in temporarily to bring further wet windy and quite mild conditions, but heights will be building very strongly to our NE - jet will be forced ever southwards and one trigger low just before mid month will pull down those cold northereasterlies - these persisting for the second half of the month with low pressure forced on a southerly track - could be very snowy for some, a role reversal of Jan 2010 perhaps - with the milder first half cancelled out by a very cold second half.

4

Feb - coldest month of the winter but only slightly colder than Jan - strong heights to our NE southerly tracking jet, we may see some milder conditions at times in the south as warm sectors move in but these will be quickly pushed aside. I also think March will start off very cold with the pattern firmly established and very reluctant to move.

4 = 13

9. The Watcher

Current Affairs:

  • Weak La Nina (tending stronger into 2012) possibly peaking at Medium Strength.
  • Positive SST Anomalies surrounding UK (SW Eire an exception), negative South and West of Iceland.
  • Significantly cooling stratosphere with an increasingly strong Polar Vortex.
  • Negative Snowcover anomalies in NW Europe, Positive Russia and some Eastern Europe.
  • SW/NE Jetstream, flattening upstream, amplified Mid Atlantic - Strong.

Looking at these recent observations it is not hard to believe that the weather is feeding in from the Atlantic at this time with strong Low Pressures passing to the NW/N of Scotland. What I intend with my forecast is to create a realistic evolutionary sequence of weather types using these fundamental current stats and evolving the pattern through the forecast period with some short term model forecasts. (ie, SSW forecasts).

Let's take a look at how I see the current state moving forward through the Winter months.

December 1st - 15th

  • Jetstream SW/NE over UK, then NW/SE flattening through day 5-7.
  • Cooling Stratosphere, slowing.
  • La Nina weak, increasing in strength.
  • Snow cover below average NW Europe.
  • Neutral NAO.
Early in the period sees unsettled conditions for all of the UK with Wet and Very Windy conditions and some Severe winds for NW and Western UK as Deep Low Pressure systems pass close to or through the UK. Rainfall could cause some flooding in NW England, Northern Ireland, Western Eire, West and Northwest Scotland and precipitation could be Wintry for these areas at times, but mainly confined to hills. SE/S UK will see slightly below - average rainfall for this period. During the second half of this period more settled conditions will take hold from the South bringing some frost and fog for Southern and Central UK with the N and West remaining a little more changeable with less in the way of wind but some rainfall at times, some frost on any clear nights. Drier overall for the ending of this period with rainfall falling below average, especially in S/SE UK.

Temperatures at the beginning of this period likely to be variable and slightly below average for Northern and Western UK, Average for the South and East. Later in the period will see below average temperatures for all areas, especially inland areas.

December 16th - 31st

  • Jetstream over Central/Northern UK, becoming SW/NE over SW Eire.
  • La Nina becoming moderate and stabilizing.
  • Stratosphere stabilizing, beginning to warm slightly.
  • Snowcover Average NW Europe
  • NAO slightly Negative
For the periods 16th - 21st the South of the UK will see mainly dry conditions with some frost and fog. Temperatures here will be slightly below - below average for December due to clear nights. Northern areas will see more unsettled and windy conditions at times with rainfall close to the seasonal norm, temperatures here will be average for the period. From 21st of December all of the UK will see more unsettled conditions with LP moving SW/NE through the UK bringing a return to some Wet and Windy weather for Southern UK. Temperatures will be slightly above average for Northern UK and possibly well above average for Southern UK. As we approach the end of the forecast period temperatures will trend cooler again as LP takes a more Southerly route through Western areas of the UK and winds trend W/NW.

December Temperatures - Average/Slightly Below (CET - 4.5c?)

6

January 1st - 31st

  • Jetstream S of UK, trending NW/SE and then flat over Central UK.
  • Warming stratosphere, cooling from mid month.
  • Moderate La Nina, only slightly increasing in strength.
  • Average Snow Cover NW Europe, trending above average.
  • NAO medium negative, becoming weak positive by mid month.
January will begin cool and becoming colder as a NW/N flow becomes prolonged during the first week bringing snowfall to some in the NW/N/W and Eastern UK as heavy showers (falling as snow to many in Northern areas) push South. Southern UK will be drier but chilly with widespread frosts and the odd Wintry Shower. Some prolonged wintry precipitation may affect all areas of the UK at times as fronts push South. During the end of the first week winds will turn NE/E and temperatures will tumble to well below average as snowfall becomes more widespread for E/S/SE UK and drier for Western areas. Travel disruption is expected around this period. From mid month milder and more unsettled conditions will return to Western areas and eventually most of the UK (Northernmost UK an exception with wintry conditions continuing a little longer) as winds turn W/SW bringing average rainfall to Southern and Central UK and Eire. During the last 3rd of January Southern UK will become more settled as Northern areas continue to see Low Pressure systems move close to the North of Scotland.

January Temperatures - Slightly/Well Below Average (CET - 2.5c?)

3

February

  • Cooling Stratosphere, warming from 2nd week
  • Jetstream flat, becoming split and weak mid month
  • Moderate La Nina, losing strength
  • Above average snow cover NW Europe
  • Neutral NAO
February will begin Unsettled in the North, settled in the South with rain at times for Scotland, Northern England and Eire. Central, Southern England and Wales will see some frost at times and remain mainly dry but with cloud/drizzle affecting the S/SW at times. Temperatures will be slightly below average for Southern areas and Average for Northern areas. From day 7- 10 a W/E split with drier weather in the E and rain at times for the West but eventually the whole of the UK will become drier with High pressure to Eastern UK. From day 10, winds will swing E/SE with chilly winds pushing into Eastern areas and frosts becoming widespread, even for Western areas. High pressure will push N/NE bringing E/NE winds to many in the UK and as cold air filters West across Northern Europe, Snow will become widespread for Eastern areas of the UK and E/N facing coasts. Some disruption is possible during this period and some snowfall is possible just about anywhere with maybe some severe disruption from prolonged snowfall in places. From 20th, Western areas will see some milder weather arrive with wintry weather reserved for far Eastern UK. From 23rd, all areas will see unsettled weather return with some Wind and Rain, especially for W/SW UK. Temperatures will recover to normal/above normal values by 25th and unsettled conditions will continue, especially for Western areas. Eastern areas may be drier at times.

February Temperatures - Slightly Below/Well Below Average (CET 2.7c?)

3 = 12

Conclusion:

Winter 2011/2012 will see mixed conditions with prolonged spells of mild/average weather interspersed with cooler and colder periods, especially the final 2/3rds of Winter in the New Year. No records will be broken on the cold side, but December (around Christmas) could see some record mild conditions for Southern UK. Snowfall/Severe winter weather is likely to occur, especially during January and February.

Thanks for reading,

The Watcher

10. Isolated Frost

December: CET 4.3C Cool, quite wet and Atlantic dominated.

Cool, generally wet, especially in the north, much of it falling as snow. High pressure in Greenland persists with a stable, repetitive Scandinavian trough. Jet to the north of the UK as lows move across Scotland, but a blocked atlantic, with limited slugglish energy, pulling in cool air from the north, but moving in from the north west/west. Heavy snowfall events across western parts, generally cloudy and cool across eastern areas. Turning milder as high pressure moves in from the west, with low pressure flowing across Iceland towards the arctic. Towards Christmas and New Year, cold westerlies move back in as high pressure sinks, and wet, windy weather for the north. Some limited snowfall, and some frosty spells in the south in the last week.

Pressure anomalies -12mb Reykjavik, +2mb London, +4mb Paris, -7mb Oslo, -2mb Berlin.

4

January: CET 2.4C Highlight of the winter for some - generally dry after a wet start.

Cool, becoming very cold, and very dry in parts. High pressure grows again in Greenland, and the jet moves south slowly towards Britain and France - this makes for a wet start over England and Wales. Mixed with atlantic airmasses of tropical and polar mixing. Becoming very cold mid-month as the arctic floodgates are opened. Very snowy at times for northern parts, bitter cold persistently - Polar lows move in to create immense snow amounts in some western parts. Very cold and dry in southern areas again. High pressure moves in from Greenland, ridging likely, giving a milder end to the month, but still generally below average - cold, dry and frosty in northern parts, more average and cloudy in southern parts.

Pressure anomalies +5mb Reykjavik, -3mb London, -7mb Paris, -4mb Oslo, 0mb Berlin

2

February: CET 5.0C Extremes of attempted easterly cold to warm, sunny spells.

The month begins with high pressure in charge, and a cool flow - generally dry and sunny. Soon, pressure begins to build rapidly in the Arctic, pushing south towards Scandinavia, as the jet tries to move north. Cold air pummels through Northern and Central Europe through the middle of the month, and record cold near Germany and Denmark. Quite milder towards Britain with a southerly flow as pressure towards the north west drops once more. The scandinavian high influences the British weather slowly towards mid-late month as cold -15c uppers reach the North Sea, but they are limited by a growing Atlantic presence. They give some wintry/snowy showers to the east for a while before being ousted by an increasingly strong atlantic. Some very heavy snowfalls in the midlands and south from battleground snowfall. High pressure generally moves in from the south/southeast late in the month as the first signs of warmer spring-like weather appear. A very warm, sunny end to the month with some westerlies and wetter weather for the north, but mostly dry and sunny, especially in the south.

Pressure anomalies -8mb Reykjavik, +8mb London, +7mb Paris, +4mb Oslo, +10mb Berlin

4 = 10

11. ITSY

ITSY

December, I expect, will be colder than November - but still above average overall. I'm going with a tussle between a developing European/Scandi high and various Atlantic lows. This could potentially deliver the occassional bit and piece of low level snow - but certainly nothing that compares to December 2010 - or even December 2009, when some parts of the south had a White Christmas. Rainfall therefore expected to be similar to that of November - concentrated in Western and Northern parts, though not exclusively so, with other areas seeing either average or below average rainfall.

4

January 2012 becomes colder IMO, high pressure being the largest reason. I expect cold nights and mildish days, at least to begin with, eventually turning into cold days as well. Expecting an average month nationwide but colder than average for parts of Scotland and the North. Less rain and certainly dryer than either of the two previous months. What rainfall there is though becomes increasingly likely to fall as snow over all northern elevations - and as the month progresses, and the high pressure begins to act as more of a blocking high to either our NW or NE, the chances of more widespread snow increases. Not a month to remember, I would suggest, but an interesting period of weather - fluctuating from Mild to Cold as the general theme.

3

February is perhaps the best chance of that snowmeggedon that everyone seems to be after. I believe this will be a cold month - the only below average month, perhaps akin to that of Feb 2009, where in cambridgeshire for instance, we had 17 days of lying snow and 7 days of falling snow in a row - which remains the longest period of snowfall I have ever had in the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average overall - though it won't seem snow because of increasing snow depths - which obviously need only a tenth of rainfall equivalent to seem as bad.

3 = 10

12. Campsie Snow Storm

DECEMBER 2011:

  • The period 1st-7th December is likely to follow what should be a cooler end to November. I expect December to start off on a cooler note - than what November is likely to be as a whole - with nighttime frost and daytime temperatures of 4C to 9C. This period should bring a mixture of sunshine, cloud and fog to parts of the UK as settled weather prevails. The period should be dominated by low pressure systems with cool polar maritime incursisons following behind the fronts and bringing some wintry weather to parts of the North and West.
  • During the period 7th-14th of December, I expect Low Pressure systems from the west to cross over the United Kingdom, bringing rain, wind, milder temperatures and some wet hill snow in the Highlands. Although temperatures are likely to be milder, I do expect some cool-cold polar maritime incursions between depressions bringing some sunshine (particulary to more southern and eastern areas although cloud may hang on to some coastal areas), some frost (perhpas lasting the entire day of some Northern areas) and wintery showers (most likely to be centered over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland).
  • What I see happening in the period 14th-21st of December is initially Atlantic Dominated before we see High Pressure in Atlantic link up With Higher Pressure in South-Eastern Greenland. The first few days will see a very active atlantic but still with the element of cold topplers behind the fronts and some of these may provide some snow to lower areas in England as some of the topplers will see more cold air than others. Towards the middle and into the latter part I expect to see the signs of Higher Pressure out in the Atlantic and Greenland building.
  • The period 21st -31st December should start of quite unsettled and chilly initially. However as we head towards Christmas I expect the UK to enter a blocked period with a notable northerly spreading south over the UK during Christmas Eve and lasting till late on Boxing Day. An easterly attempt is broken down when Higher Pressure in the Atlantic and Greenland is smashed by strong areas of low pressure. However as we head towards towards the end of the period I expect a battleground snowfall to take place over the UK and perhaps leading to some large accumilations in the Northern Half of the UK. Following the snowfall, there should be a thaw, and a return to less cold conditions with incoming low pressure systems.
3

JANUARY 2012:

  • The New Year should start pretty chilly with snow snow in the NW of Scotland as chilly zonal pattern prevails with some cold topplers. One or two of these topplers could bring some pretty expansive cold air over the UK and the potential threat for some more frontal snowfalls. During this period I expect signs of a warming in the Stratoshphere (perhaps since Christmas).
  • The duration of the 7th-13th of January should see indications of High Pressure Building over Greenland and vague hints of a pressure rise in NE Scandinavia but the period should should be predominatley Atlantic dominated although the jet stream should gradually be moving south and extremes of pretty mild sectors to cold sectors will be felt.
  • The Period 13th-20th January should see High Pressure over Greenland firmly established and more profound than the attempt of Northern Blocking in late December. Initially, the UK Should be pretty chilly, but as very intense cold air from the Arctic comes down in a notable northerly, we should quickly see things turn progressively and substantially colder. By the middle of the period I would expect some pretty heavy snow showers in Shetland and Northern Scotland aswell as NI with night time temperatures widely below freezing and droping to below -10C in the Highlands. However by the end of the period, I would expect some notable and prolonged periods of snowfalls crossing south over Scotland before intensifying over England, Wales and Ireland over the Irish and North Sea. By the end of the period, -15C or lower should have been reached in the Scottish Highlands.

  • Between the 20th and 27th of January, I expect to see a gradual increase in terms of intensity of cold and snow with temperatures of -15C to -20C being reached in the Scottish Highlands throughout the period so really not too much of a change in that area but daytime temperatures and night time temperatures elsewhere should be colder at the end than at the beginning. With conitinuos snow showers in the North and some going further south down eastern and western coasts, there shouldn't be too much of a problem with snow in this cold but quite quiet period of weather. However towards the end of the period, as the Greenland High shows signs of a decline, the potential for heights over Scandinavia increase.
  • The time frame of the 27th - 31st January should be quite active. The start of the period should see temperatures drop lower than that in the first period with some temperatures in the Highlands below -20C and in some cities -10C should have been reached. As winds have a slight NWly element in them, snow showers should become more expansive and prolonged in North and much of the west. However as Heights over Greenland start to dissolve we should see an incoming aprroch of fronts to create an incredibly messy breakdown. However as the fronts head towards the UK and Ireland, I expect heights over Scandinavia to build.
2

FEBUARY 2012:

  • The period 1st-7th of Febuary is expected to see an incredible battle between the milder Atlantic and a very strong and expansive area of High Pressure over Scandinavia. Initially, we should see some impressive snowfalls as milder Atlantic air meets colder Arctic air, however the front(s) are expected to stall over Central and Eastern parts of the UK contributing to some very large snowfalls. In the western edge of the front it should be slightly less cold as the front over the Eastern half of the country dissolves leaving behind small pockets of light snow and some large snow depths. As the front fails to win, the easterly wind locked and trapped by the front is unleashed bringing impressive cold temperatures to all parts of the UK and widespread, heavy, convective snow showers and streamers all the way from Kent to Wick. Eastern and some central parts of England and Scotland should see some very impressive snowfalls and decent depths. In parts of Ireland and southern Wales there may be some impressive snowfalls from streamers and Western Scotland should experiences some snow showers from any streamers. In the eastern Highlands, temperatures of -15 to -25C are possible and in some eastern and northern towns and cities, temperatures of -10 to -20C are possible.
  • The following period of the 7th-14th of Febuary is expected to see the High Pressure over Scandinavia and the Easterly winds to continue. The beginning and ending of the period is likely to see the worst of the snow for much of the east coast and some more prolonged areas of snowfall spreading further inland into more Central and Western areas right up and down the UK. But essentially, the main aspect of the period is the temperatures during the middle with temperatures in Cities such as Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glashow droping to below -15C and -10C being reached in cities further south including London. Snow showers won't be quite as profound, although there will still be some light snow showers in eastern coasts and filtering their way along the Channel, Thames Valley, Central Belt and Midlands. In the Highlands temperatures of -20C are more than likely.
  • The period 14th-21st of Febuary should see the cold continuing during the early stages. However the high pressure over Scandanavia will begin to show signs of fading and this should result in another messy breakdown. The first few days may see some record breaking temperatures and snowfall should increase. However low pressure systems should be able to come near or cross the UK bringing the threat of very large battleground snowfalls in the West. However in the east, there could be asmuch as a 10C difference with an easterly influence and some snow showers. Eventually, each front should gradually creep further east across the UK with precipiation in the far west falling as rain in milder temperatures and very heavy snow falling for anywhere further east. In far eastern areas, the temperatures will be at their lowest and 10C lower than that of the rest of the UK. Once the Atlantic eventually wins, temperatures in the North and East may still be slightly below average and in the south and west it will be slightly milder.
  • The month should end under with a milder Atlantic influence with some very mild temperatures in the South West, however further North and East, and particulary Scotland it will feel, much, much cooler in cool-cold zonality and still further prospects of wintry weather.
5 = 10

13. kold weather

December 4.7C, cold through upper blocking rather then true cold conditions, very mild pattern for the first half balanced out by fairly intense anticyclonic cold through to Xmas! Sorta similar to Dec 2006.

3

January 3.2C, a mixed month but colder overall, very dry with probably only minimal snow chances, maybe quite E/SE dominated.

4

Feb 4.4C A tough one temperature wise, probably close to average and much wetter then the previous two months. Best chance of snow for quite a few due to the more active pattern!

2=9

14. Back Chat

December:

The first third of December will be dominated by a North Westerly flow, bringing Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England their first snows of the season. The cold spell will not be anything remarkable with temperatures still managing to climb to 2-5C during the day, any lying snow is likely to be short lived, with hail showers becoming a very dominant feature for Western areas during the period.

The second third is likely to me average with little snow away from the highlands. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are looking around average, rainfall slightly above.

The Christmas period is a great day to feel the full effects of Winter as Santa makes his way down your chimney to make many boys and girls happy. Unfortunately santa may melt in England, as there is likely to be no snow away from the hills. For Northern Scotland, a white Christmas is looking likely with snow actually falling on the day!

The last 5-6 days may see the return of Northerly winds but confidence in this stage is very low. A North Easterly lasting 4-5 days seems the most likely scenario at this stage with snow showers for Eastern areas in particular

3

January is likely to be a cold month. Where as December will struggle to get any decent frosts, there will not be a shortage of these in January as high pressure takes control of our weather for a time at least, bringing some painfully low night time minima, and temperatures struggling to make average during the day. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, where as rainfall is looking likely to be below average.

Snowfall throughout this period is going to be a premium.

The second third is when things start to get interesting. We start with winds switching to a morth North Westerly element, and as the week goes on, they switch around to North, followed by North East. This is likely to be the snowiest period, with much of the country seeing a good total of snow by the time the spell has finished around the 20th.

The last third is looking increasingly Atlantic dominated, with rainfall above average, and sunshine at a premium. Snow over Northern hills.

2

February

February will see Winter in full force, with frequent cold spells and snow for many. Frequent Easterly winds will bring some impressive totals to Eastern areas, with the West having to wait a while to see anything wintry other than frosts.

The second period is likely to keep the Easterly theme going but perhaps snow showers for the West as the wind kicks in, sending the showers over the Pennines.

The last half is likely to be Atlantic dominated with frequent gales and above average rainfall.

4=9

15. Radiating Dendrite

December will start where November left off, with temperatures slightly above average and a succession of weather fronts crossing the country. By the middle of the month I expect the Atlantic to start to become quieter, in response to the Negative East based QBO and cooler troposphere. High pressure will start to develop, possibly from the west, with it becoming stationed over the UK as we move towards the Christmas period. I see Christmas as being quiet and anti-cyclonic with some cold nights and chilly frosty days. At the end of the month, we will start to see retrogression of the high away from the UK.

3

I believe that January will contain the core of the winter cold, similar to what we saw in winter 09/10. Currently the CFS shows high pressure located around Iceland during the first half of the month:

As we can see, this would bring cold NE winds to the UK and snow. Although I agree with the signal for High Pressure, as shown by the CFS for this period (carrying on the theme from the end of December) I believe that we could see a significant high pressure cell forming over Scandinavia, having retrogressed from the UK and linking up with developing high pressure over Iceland and SW Greenland. This would see significant cold for the UK from the east, with the low pressure undercutting the high, with a southerly tracking Jet Stream. The CFS shows a breakdown during the latter part of the month:

I would agree with this breakdown, but I think that we will have a period of cold zonality as is shown above, with Northerly and North Westerly winds. January will return the coldest CET of the winter, potentially significantly cold, though this depends on the depth of the cold during the early part of the month and whether any unsettled weather at the end cancels this out to a certain degree.

3

February 4.4c

February I see as quite a mobile month (unusually so) in response to a slight strengthening of La Nina and the QBO becoming more west based and less negative. I see February as fairly average temperature wise, with blocking struggling to establish itself to the North. A mid Atlantic high may develop during the middle of the month (currently being predicted for March by the CFS as shown below):

This has the possibility of bringing some colder weather from the North, but I do not see it as a permanent feature, possibly slipping to our South West, with lower heights developing to the North.

2=8

16. Electric Snow Storm

Factors:

•ENSO(La-Nina)

•PDO

•QBO

•AO/NAO

•Solar Activity

•Volcanic dust layers

•Ocean temperatures

•Jet stream-moving south

December - after a milder and rainy start high pressure builds and leads us into cold and frosty conditions, i expect this to be a colder high with severe frosts, eventually snowfall becomes widespread from the northeast as the high pressure cells move into the right setup to pull down a cold air flow as we move into the mid month period, i expect a significant spell of snowfall during this period with a risk that it could turn severe, but at this stage i can say cold with snow showers but how severe we wont know until nearer the time, but the risk is there, many heavy snow showers blown in from the north/northeast, these conditions lasting most of the month with it being cold dry at times.

I did expect some low pressures to move across with mild air and possibly a storm, but now i see the increasing chances that cold and mostly drier conditions will result.

2

January - i expect the cold to continue with snow staying on the ground from last month in many regions, cold and dry with snow showers for early month, some normal colder air at times as high placements move around bringing air flows from a less cold direction at times before very cold conditions setup again in the north as we move into mid january ,by this time low pressure systems crossing France as the Atlantic wakes up could bring snowfall to southern areas as cold air gets pulled down from the north, a high pressure block stopping a northerly track of the lows, the jet stream could move north during january but i dont think it will do until late month, cold and drier air further north brings snow showers from the north and northeast as we move into the end of the month for all areas. the snowfall events this month i expect to be highly disruptive with widespread deep snowfall, i have more confidence in this than what snowfall december could bring.

2

February - mild periods with rainfall as the Atlantic brings in weather fronts with the jet stream edging north, but with some cold spells at times some snow events are likely as the fronts come up against the cold air, this could affect a wide area, i do see more risk of cold staying with us then last years mild conditions, this increases the risk of snowfall.

spring warmth to come much later than last year, i dont see a quick warm up.

february could be a snowy month depends on how active the atlantic becomes and if it brings in milder air faster which could result in possible snowfall at first before atlantic conditions move in.

3 = 7

17. Summer Blizzard

This forecast will discuss three aspects, these are..

  • What the teleconnective profile of this winter is likely to be
  • What the teleconnective profile means for this winter
  • The conclusion, what is my forecast for the winter of 2012
The teleconnective profile of this winter

Below are the August-October analogues for the MEI, PDO and AO which in addition to the QBO are the main drivers of the northern hemisphere weather patterns. It should be noted that standardized QBO data only goes back as far as 1979.

PDO WINTER

2010

2001

1994

1970

1962

1952

1950

AO WINTER

2007

1985

1970

1967

1963

1954

MEI WINTER

2008

2000

1999

1998

1995

1975

1967

1961

1956

QBO WINTER

2008

2006

2004

2002

1999

1997

1995

1993

1990

1988

1985

Winter

2008**

1999**

1995**

1985**

1970**

1967**

Those are the August-October analogue matches. The analogues at the bottom are the years which matched more than one indices.

Using the analogues which matched more than one indices i then used the data to extrapolate the teleconnective profiles through the winter months..

La Nina..

2011 August-October average: -0.8

Anologue August-October average: -0.7

Strength ajustment needed: -0.1

December

2008: -0.6

1999: -1.2

1995: -0.6

1985: -0.3

1970: -1.2

1967: -0.4

Average: -0.7

Strength Ajusted: -0.8

January

2008: -0.7

1999: -1.2

1995: -0.6

1985: -0.3

1970: -1.2

1967: -0.6

Average: -0.8

Strength Ajusted: -0.9

February

2008: -0.7

1999: -1.2

1995: -0.6

1985: -0.2

1970: -1.5

1967: -0.7

Average: -0.8

Strength Ajusted: -0.9

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -0.9

PDO..

2011 August-October average: -1.6

Anologue August-October average: -0.8

Strength ajustment needed: -0.8

December

2008: -0.9

1999: -1.6

1995: +0.2

1985: +0.4

1970: -1.0

1967: -0.4

Average: -0.6

Strength Ajusted: -1.4

January

2008: -1.4

1999: -2

1995: +0.6

1985: +1.1

1970: -1.9

1967: -1.0

Average: -0.8

Strength Ajusted: -1.6

February

2008: -1.6

1999: -0.8

1995: +0.8

1985: +1.6

1970: -1.7

1967: -0.4

Average: -0.4

Strength Ajusted: -1.2

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -1.4

AO..

2011 August-October average: +0.1

Anologue August-October average: +0.2

Strength ajustment needed: -0.1

December

2008: +0.6

1999: +1

1995: -2.1

1985: -1.9

1970: -0.4

1967: -0.3

Average: -0.5

Strength Ajusted: -0.6

January

2008: +0.8

1999: +1.3

1995: -1.2

1985: -0.6

1970: -0.2

1967: -0.4

Average: 0

Strength Ajusted: -0.1

February

2008: -0.7

1999: +1.1

1995: +0.2

1985: -2.9

1970: -0.9

1967: -2.2

Average: -0.9

Strength Ajusted: -1

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -0.6

QBO.. (1970 and 1967 not available)

2011 August-October average: +0.3

Anologue August-October average: +1.3

Strength ajustment needed: -1

December

2008: +1.1

1999: +0.7

1995: -0.1

1985: +1

Average: +0.7

Strength Ajusted: -0.3

January

2008: +1

1999: +0.5

1995: -0.3

1985: +0.1

Average: +0.3

Strength Ajusted: -0.7

February

2008: +1.1

1999: +0.5

1995: -0.5

1985: +0.4

Average: +0.4

Strength Ajusted: -0.6

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -0.5

While the QBO and AO do have January peaks and troughs, because of them maintaining negative values we can now draw some conclusions as to what winter will bring.

Strengthening La Nina

Strengthening -QBO

Strengthening -AO

Weakening -PDO

What does the teleconnective profile of this winter mean?

I have gone through the data sets in order to ascertain what the effects of the teleconnective profile would mean in relation to the CET against the 1971-2000 averages.

AO (-)

Strengthening

2001 - aba

1981 - aab

1965 - bbb

1964 - bba

1960 - abb

1951 - bbb

December: 50/50

January: 83% below average

February: 66% below average

MEI (-)

Strengthening

2009 - bbb

2008 - baa

2006 - bab

2000 - baa

1996 - bab

1985 - abb

1974 - baa

1971 - baa

1968 - bab

1963 - bbb

1962 - baa

1951 - bbb

December: 91% below average

January: 66% above average

February: 58% below average

QBO (-)

Strengthening

2010 - bbb

2001 - aba

1996 - bab

1994 - aab

1992 - bba

1989 - aaa

1987 - abb

1984 - abb

1982 - bba

1977 - bba

1968 - bab

1966 - bba

1963 - bbb

1954 - abb

1953 - bba

1952 - abb

December: 56% below average

January: 75% below average

February: 56% below average

PDO (-)

Weakening

2011 - bba

2008 - baa

2002 - baa

1999 - aaa

1991 - bbb

1976 - aaa

1974 - baa

1964 - bba

1962 - baa

1956 - abb

1951 - bbb

December: 72% below average

January: 54% above average

February: 72% above average

You can see from the above that strengthening negative values for the AO and QBO are very good for winter cold, with mixed results from the MEI and PDO. All teleconnective phases indicate a December below the 1971-2000 average.

From the teleconnective phases we will be in this winter, we can now draw analogues which match more than one indices.

2008** - baa

2001** - aba

1996** - bab

1974** - baa

1968** - bab

1964** - bba

1963** - bbb

1962** - baa

1951*** - bbb

Winter conclusions

Using the above analogues we can say that there is the following likelihood...

December - 90% below average

January - 50/50

February - 50/50 (due to winter teleconnective profiles supporting below average outcome (other than PDO), i will back a below average outcome.

My winter forecast is therefore..

December: 2.8C, 2.3C below average (range 1.2C to 4.9C) 1

January: 3.8C, 0.4C below average (range -2.1C to 6.6C)

2

February: 2.3C, 1.9C below average (range -0.7C to 3.7C) 4 = 7

Winter: 3C, 1.6C below average (range -0.5C to 5C)

Extras

Taking solar data into account then we see rising solar activity (in general) which lends weight to the analogues of 2001and 1968.

You can also see sea surface temperature anomalies below which show the classic -MEI, -PDO Pacific pattern although they do currently signify Atlantic troughing...

Posted Image

Links

http://www.esrl.noaa...es/printpage.pl

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/qbo.u30.index

http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table

http://www.esrl.noaa.../mei/table.html

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

http://www.esrl.noaa...tion/solar.data

http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif

Note

Model output currently does not support my December forecast however December 2007 was the only one of my analogue set to feature an Atlantic trough but i was not confident of its response over Europe on that analogue, thus i opted to go with the general analogue set.

If i can get the general teleconnective trends and have the CET within my range then i will be pleased.

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Of all the seasons - I think spring is the hardest to predict. It is a period of transition and state of flux when abnormal synoptics can and do suddently spring up put of nowhere.

I'll give my prediction at the end of the month for what its worth - however, I will say, I very much doubt April will be anywhere as near as mild and dry and sunny as last year, and I am foreseeing a much more interesting March with some wintry bursts from time to time. Hoping May turns out to be mainly settled unlike recent ones - but this is a hopecast not a forecast.

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Synoptically, I was pleased with December, January was awful and I am very happy with my February forecast. Mixed, GP's and lomondsnowstorm's ones are my favourites.

Spring- a lovely but difficult season to predict, my early thoughts are for a lopsided March- mild for the first half generally, increasing cooling and more blocked towards the north as we end the month. This continues into April to continue the cold and dry theme- before turning gradually wetter as the weak jet erodes the progressive block. May then becomes gradually warmer, with high pressure increasingly dominating as the jet fades, and some hot spells creep into the pattern as we move into summer.

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Of all the seasons - I think spring is the hardest to predict. It is a period of transition and state of flux when abnormal synoptics can and do suddently spring up put of nowhere.

I'll give my prediction at the end of the month for what its worth - however, I will say, I very much doubt April will be anywhere as near as mild and dry and sunny as last year, and I am foreseeing a much more interesting March with some wintry bursts from time to time. Hoping May turns out to be mainly settled unlike recent ones - but this is a hopecast not a forecast.

haha! I'm looking forward to your forecast, you came 8th with the winter forecast with a score of 13. Still Spring, Summer and Autumn left to see who has scored the best out of the Seasonal forecasts before we return to our winter mode.

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This forecast is based on the same numerical index analysis from daily and monthly CET as well as a general overview of the hemispheric forcing currently being displayed by various global signals such as SST anomalies.

The general spring forecast calls for a wetter trend for much of the southern U.K. to end or at least modify the dry conditions we find at present. Temperatures will be generally near normal on average with some rather chilly spells after a warm start. As "spring" is defined as March, April and May, the prospect for very warm weather in early June would qualify for summer although many will see that as a spring to summer transition.

March will start out relatively mild and begin to turn more unsettled, then a rather large-scale pattern change around 10th to 15th can be expected with northerly followed by some northeasterly flow and a more wintry feel, with the CET struggling to hold its early positive anomalies and settling into the 5.5 to 6.0 range. There will probably be one snowfall event in this period as well as more frequent hill snows. When it does warm up somewhat, it will probably become quite damp, but rainfall amounts will likely be around normal with a tendency to dry conditions in parts of Scotland.

April will probably follow a similar trend with a warmer week to ten days to start the month (around Easter) then back into a cooler, unsettled pattern with frequent northwest to northeast winds and the onset of a heavier rainfall regime in the south as low pressure often takes up long residence near the Channel or in northern France. The CET will be held in the 7.0 to 7.5 range and there could be late snow or sleet making the season seem particularly backward compared to last April.

May could develop into a very wet month as the cool, unsettled pattern intensifies; there may be a large omega-blocking pattern over the central Atlantic into Scandinavia with low pressure trapped over western Europe. This may give parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland a dry month compared to southern England which could be exceptionally wet. The CET will be depressed by all the cloud to a value around 10.5 to 11.0. Some northerly gales may develop at times later in the month as part of the gradual breakdown of the blocking and the month may end with more settled weather. A warm spell or heat wave may follow in early June.

(summer preview -- like last year was supposed to be, hot and dry, thundery by August)

Confidence in this spring forecast is not exceptionally high; the unsettled foundation is based largely on an interaction between the data set which shows slightly below normal temperatures, and the presumed likelihood of blocking as the signal for high pressure over Greenland and Iceland rises to a peak in late April from analogues. I suspect that there could be brief warmer spells and not necessarily weeks and weeks of cold, wet weather, but compared to previous recent springs, this one may be cooler and wetter than most. My index values show some very high temperature peaks in June and this method worked for late February at a distance of four months. I would say we (meaning you, but also me in this location) are certainly overdue a hot, dry summer in any case.

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thanks for that Roger-your outputs are always worth a read with well explained reasons for the contents of your forecast.

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This forecast is based on the same numerical index analysis from daily and monthly CET as well as a general overview of the hemispheric forcing currently being displayed by various global signals such as SST anomalies.

The general spring forecast calls for a wetter trend for much of the southern U.K. to end or at least modify the dry conditions we find at present. Temperatures will be generally near normal on average with some rather chilly spells after a warm start. As "spring" is defined as March, April and May, the prospect for very warm weather in early June would qualify for summer although many will see that as a spring to summer transition.

March will start out relatively mild and begin to turn more unsettled, then a rather large-scale pattern change around 10th to 15th can be expected with northerly followed by some northeasterly flow and a more wintry feel, with the CET struggling to hold its early positive anomalies and settling into the 5.5 to 6.0 range. There will probably be one snowfall event in this period as well as more frequent hill snows. When it does warm up somewhat, it will probably become quite damp, but rainfall amounts will likely be around normal with a tendency to dry conditions in parts of Scotland.

April will probably follow a similar trend with a warmer week to ten days to start the month (around Easter) then back into a cooler, unsettled pattern with frequent northwest to northeast winds and the onset of a heavier rainfall regime in the south as low pressure often takes up long residence near the Channel or in northern France. The CET will be held in the 7.0 to 7.5 range and there could be late snow or sleet making the season seem particularly backward compared to last April.

May could develop into a very wet month as the cool, unsettled pattern intensifies; there may be a large omega-blocking pattern over the central Atlantic into Scandinavia with low pressure trapped over western Europe. This may give parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland a dry month compared to southern England which could be exceptionally wet. The CET will be depressed by all the cloud to a value around 10.5 to 11.0. Some northerly gales may develop at times later in the month as part of the gradual breakdown of the blocking and the month may end with more settled weather. A warm spell or heat wave may follow in early June.

(summer preview -- like last year was supposed to be, hot and dry, thundery by August)

Confidence in this spring forecast is not exceptionally high; the unsettled foundation is based largely on an interaction between the data set which shows slightly below normal temperatures, and the presumed likelihood of blocking as the signal for high pressure over Greenland and Iceland rises to a peak in late April from analogues. I suspect that there could be brief warmer spells and not necessarily weeks and weeks of cold, wet weather, but compared to previous recent springs, this one may be cooler and wetter than most. My index values show some very high temperature peaks in June and this method worked for late February at a distance of four months. I would say we (meaning you, but also me in this location) are certainly overdue a hot, dry summer in any case.

March and April sound nice. It'd be nice to see mostly sunny conditions fluctuating between showery and clear; wintry and warm and whole load of other types. A snow event, a heatwave (like 2011) and pleasant sunny- showery conditions inbetween would be great for April. May, I hope it starts off sunny and warm and ends that way with anything during the middle - still with a good few days of sunshine and warmth.

Your forecast does sound very interesting - hope March and April will be correct and May to be sunnier and warmer and I'm hoping for a good, proper Spring.

Also, it's not long to Spring starts so it'd be great if we could get as many Spring forecast from members as possible. Myself, RJS and ESS have all done forecasts - now it's your turn! All for fun and a test of your weather knowledge and instinct.

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The winter forecast seems to be the big kahuna, but every season is an equal challenge in terms of difficulty.

Just a side note, I went for 6.9 for March in the CET contest, that's a bit higher than I said above but the main thing is, I expect the CET to stall on its upward climb and fall back at times in the general range of 6 to 8.

There should be at least one good Iceland blocking type episode, something we've seen very little this past season. My theoretical reasoning for it comes from analysis of retrograde analogues. The peak of this retrograde index will be mid-April.

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3 Spring Forecasts from members so far. It would be nice to have some more :)

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3 Spring Forecasts from members so far. It would be nice to have some more :)

I use tea leaves and the sun is that ok ?

March

Mixed bag with PM incursions and less blocking. Mobile Atlantic, rainfall likely to be above average for most regions and temps marginally below.

April

The long over due cold April arrives with cold Easter (not snowy) CET 1.7c below the average.

May

Rainfall above average , sunshine amounts below. CET around average but warm month end.

June is when it starts really getting interesting but thats for another day and a fresh brew would be required.

Edited by stewfox

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I am going to go along with the Met Office in predicting a warm Spring. They did well on their winter forecast in particular identifying the dominance of the Azores HP. Met O also making some fairly blatent claims now that any likely seasonal warmth is due to AGW!

http://www.metoffice...ngency-planners

really!

to me an impressive broad scale view with I counted TWO references only to global warming,hardly 'blatant claims' in my view just sensible comments in the context of that part of the forecast they were trying to explain.

Why oh why do some folk want to bash constructive forecasts and bring in the GW comment in whenever they can

TWO brief comments on it I repeat and in my view as a professionally trained forecaster quite correct use of the possible reason.

Of course the advice may be wrong but I doubt any other centre let alone individual could do a more comprehensive and logial outlook at the moment.

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really!

to me an impressive broad scale view with I counted TWO references only to global warming,hardly 'blatant claims' in my view just sensible comments in the context of that part of the forecast they were trying to explain.

Why oh why do some folk want to bash constructive forecasts and bring in the GW comment in whenever they can

TWO brief comments on it I repeat and in my view as a professionally trained forecaster quite correct use of the possible reason.

Of course the advice may be wrong but I doubt any other centre let alone individual could do a more comprehensive and logial outlook at the moment.

If you read my post carefully, you'll see that I am actually backing and congratulating the Met Office due to their very good winter forecast. The reason I mention AGW, is purely and simply because I've not seen this happen in any of the MO long term forecasts to date. Being what I consider to be a bit of a departure and new introduction from previous forecasts in clearly stating how AGW might be affecting our climate, I quite simply thought it worthy of note!

Please read my original post again carefully and you will agree that actually I believe the Met Office to be doing a good job, especially with seasonal forecasting this year! Please also don't be in such a hurry to assume the worst! You have clearly interpreted my original post as suggesting the MO out of line, but actually I just found it very surprising that the MO was so clear about how climate change is having a real and current impact on our climate. While I am aware that the MO does support AGW, I have never observed a MO forecast, which makes such a statement. If it has happened before, then it is a feature I haven't noticed.

Why oh why do I find myself having to clarify posts so often? Is it because I express myself badly or are some people a little prickly on AGW?

Edited by summersnow

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my main comment was about this remark which I felt was OTT and I'm neither for nor against AGW nor GW

making some fairly blatent claims

as I said they commented twice and in proper context in my view.

But lets move on and I agree their overall forecasting is, as it should be, in the longer term forecasting generally good sometimes even very good.

However, as I've commented in various threads their very short term zero to 24 hour outputs does at times leave me wondering why they are just now and then even behind the more savvy punters on Net Weather!

Edited by johnholmes

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I'm expecting the Spring/Summer seasons to follow a similar pattern to last year. Drier, warmer and sunnier than average April, May, then a generally unsettled June, July and Aug with temps close to average, before dry, warm and sunny conditions return for September/early October. Hope I'm wrong, but I think >30c will again prove a struggle this Summer.

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Hi Folks, here we go again! Yes I am also pleased with my weather forecast, for the previous winter, so much for another min ice age.

Spring, well, if it continues like it has for this March so far.... The year 2003 are on the edge of my lips. Need Isay anymore. Though I do think April will be the wettest (and when I say it, probably slighly below average)of the Spring months for us in Scotland, though high pressure will never be very far away.

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Here goes my attempt for Summer, which I will update as we get closer....

Pre-Season

MAY 2012 - Summary - Unsettled May - Well above average rainfall, below average temperatures, very windy weather on exposed locations, ending on a high in the last week of May.

A very wet month in most places, with a top temperature of 23-27*C during the warmest parts in the last week of May. Low pressure very dominant, during the first week of May with a continuation of westerlies, with temperatures averaging very close to 8-13*C across most parts of the UK. Sunshine amounts are likely to be highly variable during these conditions. Unsettled conditions to prevail during the second week of may, with many places seeing above average rainfall and below average temperatures. During week 3 in may, temperature remaning below average with rainfall continuing to be well above the average. By week 4 high pressure builds over western and central northern parts of Europe, allowing the most unsettled conditions into Iberia. Temperatures recovering to average, sometimes above average in the Sunshine.

Summer 2012 -

JUNE 2012 - Summary - A very mixed bag of weather, from high pressure and settled conditions to rain, possibly thundery at times back to a short spell of settled weather, returning back to above average rainfall possibly very stormy as a strong jetstream keeps Summer at Bay.

After a 1-2 week settled period, the westerlies prevail and high pressure sinks towards Iberia allowing unsettled conditions to make a return to some areas that need the rain the most. These wet conditons may be a Thundery Breakdown and so temperatures recovering to average to below average at times. The south east seeing most of the settled conditions. During the 2nd week of June, parts of Europe and the South East remain very settled, with high pressure being the dominant factor. The unsettled conditions prevail for the Midlands and the rest of the UK, with well above average rainfall and temperatures close or below average. During week 3 of June, things start hotting up in the South East and East Anglia and for much of England, but the rest of the UK are likely to see unsettled conditons, however during week 3 the transition to unsettled and very stormy conditions for much of the as High pressure retreats. A very strong Jestream pushes low pressure after low pressure across the UK, temperatures in the South remaining fairly average.

Overall a mixed month, with above average rainfall across most parts, exceptionally in the South/South East remaining on the settled side.

JULY - Summary - No sign of Summer, as the north Atlantic remains dominant for weeks on end. Temperatures tend to be kept at bay, with no sign of any settled conditions allowing the Summer Sunshine to raise temperatures.

July is a month of predominately very heavy rainfall, with mostly below average temperatures throughout the UK. Rainfall ammounts in the North West and far north west of Scotland and Northern Ireland would be exceptional. Some extremely heavy rainfall will prevail throughout the whole of July, Top temperatures likely to be averaging in the South East at 19*C in the clear spells in between bands of rain.

AUGUST - Summary - Summer Sun, the one to watch this year, could turn out to be a record breaker. The month would contain some very severe Thunderstorms due to the heat and the strength of the North Atlantic.

August is a very long way away, but it looks like temperatures across the UK will be above average in most cases, with some exceptional temperatures possibly being reached. Rainfall amounts average to above average in any unsettled conditions, most likely from some very severe Thunderstorms due to the Heat. An essence to 2003 to this month.

Season Analysis.

We are definitely looking at an unsettled to mixed summer for this year. However the best of the weather could be August-September time before we see any decent weather and temperatures. Overall the first month of Summer is very mixed and even in any settled conditions temperatures would be kept at bay. July is a month to watch, probably being one of the wettest Summer months in recent times, with temperatures still being kept below average. August is also one to watch, but for a different reason a very stormy, but humid and hot month, possible continuation into September of some very settled conditions.

Overall Summer again will be below average, and extremely wet.....AGAIN!!

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Looks like Roger has got April bang on from 2 months away. Amazing. I'm hoping for once he is wrong - with regards to May anyway. As a cricket coach I can do without a wet month following such a wet end to April!

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as you say oh dear

I am never sure whether to laugh or cry when he sends this sort of comment/letter to anyone let alone MP's and members of the House of Lords.

The 'cry' side of me wants an MP with a decent credability rating to carry out a 12 month check of his supposed successes, how I don't know' as the idiot will twist and squirm as always to show he is right and everyone else is wrong. Then somehow stop him from doing anything other than issuing forecasts instead of mixing his so called forecasts with attacks on anyone he feels like attacking, be it UK Met or Net Wx. The man is a joke but sadly the media will happily misquote him, unfortunately their misquotes of him always show him in a rosy light and others as baddies.

I am happy to listen to anyone with suggestions that 'standard meteorology' is less succseful than any other theories but his constant bleating, throwing toys out of the pram only to reappear, rather like some of our posters over the winter season, is quite tiresome.

sorry I'll shut up.

Edited by johnholmes
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