Wales Cymru Weather Discussion Part 5

[DeepSnow]

Well atleast this time i seem to be on the western edge of both the meto warning and the nae chart so suppose there is a chance of snow, esp being after dark as some have said! I hope to get some laying snow and not a snow to rain event! Sure things will change between now and tomorrow night as always, hope for the better though!

[pyrotech]

yes high res NAE says snow, GFS says rain. I think Meto are sticking more towards NAE but its a nail biter again.

Will do an update later as busy in work today.

[DeepSnow]

Just a curious question, would it be possible or likely for cold uppers to cover more of wales between now and the event, giving us a better chance? or is that just not even a posibility in at this time?

Edited February 8, 2012 by DeepSnow

[andymusic]

Cold uppers are a little too far east although they do come further west as friday progresses - here's a nice chart for most of Wales to enjoy and give a little hope to - mind you - it's only a chart

[bradymk]

Could be interesting for SE wales, dont think anyone further west will get any though, hopefully GH reappears on the 12z runs.

[Wales123098]

http://postimage.org/image/x6asggx3l/ SE Wales could get 10cm

[Marcus_surfer]

Chances look even further east than last weeks snow event

[keithlucky]

Latest GFS charts shift the precipatation further west good news for wales could well see a freezing rain with maybe back edge snow with cold air digging back in from the east.

[Gavla]

Well times like this i wish i was further east lol literally more than likely to be on the wrong side of marginal again by a few miles. East is definately best and west is least this winter

[andymusic]

http://postimage.org/image/x6asggx3l/ SE Wales could get 10cm

nice chart!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well times like this i wish i was further east lol literally more than likely to be on the wrong side of marginal again by a few miles. East is definately best and west is least this winter

That gulf stream drift don't help neither! - keeps you snug as a bug warm in winter

GFS 12z has a nice northerly thrown in for next week mind - could be some of those famous danglers about if the wind is blowing in the right direction!

Edited February 8, 2012 by andymusic

[bradymk]

UKMO is excellent http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021 and GFS is also a huge improvement for a GH next week. GH would certainly improve Wales' chances of good snow.

[Marcus_surfer]

A nice unstable northwesterly blast would be good...a nice Jackone streamer would be on the cards!!!

[benb]

That northerly has been quite consistently forecast for a couple of days now, so you'd think something along those lines would occur now- think Wales'd do a bit better if the whole pattern shifted 200 miles further west just to budge that high pressure a bit further away.

But this-

-shows what might happen for the west, if it pans out like currently forecast.

[DeepSnow]

If only this were to happen we could all get some snow in wales!!

[keithlucky]

Yes latest met news front stalls down spine of UK central and east UK misses the snow east wales having a good covering still possible rain could turn to snow as front slowly moves s west

[Snowmadsam]

nice chart!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That gulf stream drift don't help neither! - keeps you snug as a bug warm in winter

GFS 12z has a nice northerly thrown in for next week mind - could be some of those famous danglers about if the wind is blowing in the right direction!

Yes Please a pembrokeshire one and a JACKONE would be great

[blackrose73]

The Met Office have also included London and the South-East in the snow alert - but the yellow area doesn't even cover them! Yet sometimes Wales is excluded from warnings when we are in the firing line! Oh I give up!

[Penderyn]

Bois bach!...Managed to reach -2 C max today brrr....even with stronger sun..if we could just get some snow...sun getting stronger by the day rwan.

Temp at 18:00 = -5C

Edited February 8, 2012 by Penderyn

[nwales]

Another ice day here, got up to -0.8c after a min of -6.1c last night. Inside the Met O yellow warning for snow tomorrow. Not expecting anything. Snowed for hours on Saturday but it was so light it only gave a dusting.

Current temp: -3.1c

[WREXHAM]

ha now snow for me again

[Snowmadsam]

me neither WREXHAM lets see what i can do to break the snow shield across Wales

*gets out screwdriver and hammer*

This may take some time....

[Penderyn]

ha now snow for me again

an easterly wind can cause snow laden trough formation as its becomes unstable from hitting the eastern wales hills

Edited February 8, 2012 by Penderyn

[Carl46Wrexham]

Got a hunch we will have to endure another freezing rain event -yuk!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Now let's hope this event is actually decent and the snow doesn't get washed away. My sledge is ready for friday.

[J10]

Well times like this i wish i was further east lol literally more than likely to be on the wrong side of marginal again by a few miles. East is definately best and west is least this winter

You don't live high enough, we have 3 cvoerings of snow this winter, albeit only for a few hours.

How much snow has low ground in SE Wales had this winter, It seems to me only the higher parts have done considerably better.

Yes Please a pembrokeshire one and a JACKONE would be great

What we need in West Wales is a classic streamer and in these situaitons we do better than Eastern areas, UKMO looks very promising at T+144, GFS not too bad and ECM not promising tonight. I promise to shut up about a streamer for the rest of the winter if we get a decent one next week

As for this Thursdays event, I downplayed the chances of snow based on the GFS 18Hz, the GFS still doesn't look promising, but NAE is a bit more promising, however all western areas will miss out, and from Bridgend east a chance, but as per this winter so far, it looks mostly a hills event, even if NAE is right.