Atlantic Hurricane/Invest Thread 2012/2013

[Coast]

Hurricane Marco Rubio: Name the Storms After Those Who Deny Global Warming Exists

 

An environmentalist group wants hurricanes and storm systems named after politicians who adamantly deny global warming exists. Miranda Green reports.

 

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/09/hurricane-marco-rubio-name-the-storms-after-those-who-deny-global-warming-exists.html

 

Edited September 9, 2013 by Coast

[Coast]

[summer blizzard]

BOC system now a 5 day cherry at 60%.

 

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEANSEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS DISTURBANCE ISFORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OFCAMPECHE BY THURSDAY...WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTEDTO FORM.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULDGRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICALDEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  

[summer blizzard]

Now at 70% in 5 days and declared invest 93L.

 

[Summer Sun]

We are on the brink of setting a new record for the latest start to the Atlantic hurricane season tomorrow (September 11th) is the current record but TS Humberto looks like forming into a Hurricane with in the next 24 hours which will be the first of the season

 

But the main concern is TS Gabrielle which is heading for Bermuda

[summer blizzard]

We are on the brink of setting a new record for the latest start to the Atlantic hurricane season tomorrow (September 11th) is the current record but TS Humberto looks like forming into a Hurricane with in the next 24 hours which will be the first of the season

 

But the main concern is TS Gabrielle which is heading for Bermuda

 

We could always be screwed over in post season reanalysis anyway, this was Fernandat landfall...

 

[summer blizzard]

40% chance of development for 95L in the BOC. Looks like it will move slowly north west and get close to making landfall however a front picks it up and heads towards Florida.

 

[Konstantinos]

95L has relation with Ingrid or not?

[Coast]

95L has relation with Ingrid or not?

 

I know what you mean Konstantinos, but that sounds quite ermmm 'human'!!! :lol: (your English is way better then my Greek, so no offence) 

 

It does depend on what track 95L finally ends up taking:

 

 

But Ingrid has left the building....

 

[summer blizzard]

70% for 95L which I'd dropping into the BOC now. Should move slowly but should get fairly strong too.

[Konstantinos]

Thank you for your information Coast. If you speak 3 languages, and you hurry, it is obvious that you will make mistakes. Maybe this is better: Is 95L associated with Ingrid? or Is 95L related with Ingrid?

But anyway, I think , the region around Mexico and especially the Gulf of Mexico are very active the last period.

Edited September 19, 2013 by Konstantinos

[Somerset Squall]

95L is not related to Ingrid no. But yes, the Gulf Of Mexico, more specifically the Bay Of Campeche, has been the hot spot of the limited activity of 2013. Barry, Fernand, Eight and Ingrid.

[Konstantinos]

But 95L has many similarities with Ingrid. I think so. I have a friend from Cancun in Mexico, and I remember, both began from this region, and they went north - northwest for becoming depressions.

Also, we have this: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

20% during the next 48 hours and 60% during the next 5 days.

Can someone explain to me, how the name of an Invest Area is derived from? For example 93L, 94, 95L ... How?

Edited September 19, 2013 by Konstantinos

[Coast]

Can someone explain to me, how the name of an Invest Area is derived from? For example 93L, 94, 95L ... How?

 

Invests are numbered from 90 to 99, followed by L in the Atlantic, E and C in the East and Central Pacific respectively, or W in the West Pacific; the Joint Typhoon Warning Center also issues unofficial warnings for the Australian cyclone region, designating tropical invests with the "S" suffix when they form west of 135°E, and the "P" suffix when they form east of 135°E. Invests in the North Indian Ocean cyclone basin are also labelled by the JWTC, and are suffixed with "A" if they from in the Arabian Sea and with "B" if they form in the Bay of Bengal.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Itfc%2Bcanes%3Dme/invest

[Konstantinos]

So, If I see Invest 94 in Atlantic, it means Invest Area 94L? It is impossible to have 11 Invest Areas in the same time?And the numbers are 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 90, 91, ....?

Edited September 20, 2013 by Konstantinos

[Somerset Squall]

Yes that's correct . Yeah it would be pretty unlikely to have 10 simultaneous invests in one basin lol

[Konstantinos]

And what about records? I am interested for them. What is the maximum number of Invest Areas which were active in the same moment? Where and when? I think in Pacific Ocean.

[Somerset Squall]

Mmm, I'm not sure how to find out that information. The West Pacific would be the most likely to have many simultaneous invests, I think I've seen an occasion with 5 possibly.

[summer blizzard]

Well it's September 22nd, not too far off peak season and there's now nothing of interest in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins. Says it all really.

[Konstantinos]

Soon, we will have invest in north Atlantic.A question. Why we do not have a thread for west - north Pacific Invests?

Edited September 25, 2013 by Konstantinos

[Somerset Squall]

There's not really enough interest in them to justify a thread.

[summer blizzard]

In my heart wrenching sadness at the lack of a red meat cane i took my eye off the ball. Right now we have 96L at cherry in the mid-Atlantic (a TS getting quickly picked up) but we do have a wave in the Carribean at 30% in 5 days, it should take a turn towards Florida from the Yucatan and there's a chance of a strong TS/weak hurricane near next weekend.

 

96L is not pretty but it does look to have a nearly closed low level center and deap if not organised convection..

 

[summer blizzard]

97L now a 80% cherry off the Yucatan, Gfs very bullish with a 100mph cane slamming the Panhandle although the consensus is a repeat of Andrea. With that said Ecwmf was consistently against more than a weak Ts until yesterday.

[summer blizzard]

If the NHC go with the Ascat pass rather than waiting for the next recon, we have Ts Karen.

At any rate its not often we have a 40Kt invest.

[summer blizzard]

Mandarin in the Atlantic.