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Osbourne One-Nil

The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

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I rather like days like today with temperatures hovering round freezing and snow grains fluttering down from time to time.

Nurse! ;)

No, I know what you mean, Col. :good: I'd prefer deeper cold and proper snow, mind. :p

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As has alreaedy been mentioned, this is turning into an embarassing damp squib following all the ramping done by Steve Murr - BOOM, BOOM my behind!

The breakdown of this 'cooler' weather is in sight and if this is the highlight of the winter I'd sooner have milder weather to save on the heating bills!

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We still appear to be on the wrong side of the marginal, conditions should improve within the next few hours into tomorrow morning as dew points eventually drop. Any precipitation after this should be wintry in nature.

Overnight there was trace (and I mean 'trace') of hail on top of my windscreen wipers.

Yes it's cold out there but precipitation looks like it'll be pretty much nil all week I'm afraid.

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As has alreaedy been mentioned, this is turning into an embarassing damp squib following all the ramping done by Steve Murr - BOOM, BOOM my behind!

The breakdown of this 'cooler' weather is in sight and if this is the highlight of the winter I'd sooner have milder weather to save on the heating bills!

Que?? Thats a bit harsh!

Sub zero temps were never going to come roaring in overnight, it's more of a slow burner but it's already cold not cool....this is England not Norway!

Just looked at the radar and to me it looks like there's plenty of convection starting to brew and heading towards the coast so regardless of....

Low lapse rate, relatively high pressure without a noticeable upper trough/cold pool and therefore high thickness, and generally not enough moisture or energy to produce any meaningful convection- add this to low wind speeds making any very weak or unlikely for land....quoted above, there are positive signs. It's not going to get any warmer, it's not going to get cool, the temp is on a downward trend my friend so be positive!!

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Que?? Thats a bit harsh!

Sub zero temps were never going to come roaring in overnight, it's more of a slow burner but it's already cold not cool....this is England not Norway!

Just looked at the radar and to me it looks like there's plenty of convection starting to brew and heading towards the coast so regardless of....

Low lapse rate, relatively high pressure without a noticeable upper trough/cold pool and therefore high thickness, and generally not enough moisture or energy to produce any meaningful convection- add this to low wind speeds making any very weak or unlikely for land....quoted above, there are positive signs. It's not going to get any warmer, it's not going to get cool, the temp is on a downward trend my friend so be positive!!

Yeah, I suppose I spat my dummy out a bit before!!!

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At present it is that familiar "south-easterly" type scenario of stratocumulus trapped under an inversion, but I think some are being rather too hasty in writing everything off. The radar shows a line of showers out in the North Sea heading slowly westwards, and intensifying as they do so. At the current rate of movement they will probably be upon us by around 1-2pm.

It's true that some have been ramping up snow potential too much, but I also think some are going too far the other way. This afternoon and evening look quite favourable for a scattering of wintry showers spreading in across the North East, though probably only shallow convection due to the relatively stable airmass- some of us will probably end up with a dusting of the white stuff. During tomorrow the showers will become isolated again as a pool of more stable air moves overhead, then from Wednesday to Friday the potential for more significant shower activity returns. Much depends on how long, and how strongly, this easterly flow can establish for- the UKMO suggests it largely fizzling out by Thursday which would mean no advance on a dusting for the majority, but the GFS has a sluggish east to north-easterly flow going until Saturday which would keep some snow showers firing in.

Due to the proximity of high pressure and sluggish nature of the easterly flow, I very much doubt we're talking 10+ centimetres of lying snow, but if we keep the easterly regime going until Friday about 2-5 centimetres is quite possible IMHO, particularly close to the North Sea coast. Today's showers btw probably won't provide accumulations along the east coast itself, e.g. Cleadon is up at 2.6C at the moment even though the dew points are below zero.

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TWS.

Thanks for that very useful summary.

All too often (particularly in the MO thread) too much technical talk can over complicate matters so a few paragraphs from yourself there has made a world of difference to newbis like myself.

:good:

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Reports of light snow in washington 20 mins ago- on mobile so can't see radar animation- is that band advancing?

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Reports of light snow in washington 20 mins ago- on mobile so can't see radar animation- is that band advancing?

light snow in Durham city about the same time. band is advancing east to west, more pronounced but less intense than yesterday.

as a subtext, it was interesting to note how strong the easterly flow felt at almost 2000ft yesterday on the Durham moors....

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2pKfE.jpg

This line of weak showers is slowly heading West and could produce some very light snow showers for coastal areas.

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Doesn't look like there are many "reinforcements" though so it could be a couple of hours of wintry showers (snow inland, sleety near the coast) and then more dry cloudy weather. That said, the satellite image suggests more "lumpy" and broken cloud behind it, perhaps suggesting further convection.

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East of the A1 temps are widely between 3 and 4C with DPs hovering around 0C so it will be probably rain and sleet if those showers made landfall at the moment, west of the A1 temps and DPs fall off widely to between 1 and 2 C with DPs of -1 t -3C, but at this stage I wouldn't be too hopeful of seeing much PPN west of the A1. I am happy to be surprised though....

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Good call ra-- some light sleet falling atm, temp 3.4c, dew point 0.7c.

The day was a very easterly feeling day- quite raw and dominated by a sheet of stratocumulus- some light drizzle and sleet at times with a light wind. It is pleasant really just to have the wind blowing from the north sea :)

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Rain with sleet mixed in here at sea level, surface temps are to high at the moment looks decent for the east from wednesday onwards with much colder uppers and a stronger easterly flow.

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-9/-10c uppers are heading over the east coast, surprised with the rain/sleet reports. Normally they are sufficient to support sea level snowfall, dew points look ok as well away from the extreme coast.

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The coastal temps are being heavily propped up by the North Sea I think at the moment, Hartlepool is more than 2C warmer than Durham, I think the slack surface flow must be being subject to significant modification from the North Sea.

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Yes there needs to be a stronger flow over the north sea to prevent modification - I expect this is rather shallow and any heavier ppn would readily turn to snow.

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Temps are now dropping slightly in this band of PPN, perhaps a bit of evaporative cooling taking place. Snow line yesterday was around 1000' for 'dry' falling snow and I don't suspect in truth it is hugely different today. The air flow is crossing a lot of sea very slowly at the moment and keeping us toasty warm (well relatively...)

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The coastal temps are being heavily propped up by the North Sea I think at the moment, Hartlepool is more than 2C warmer than Durham, I think the slack surface flow must be being subject to significant modification from the North Sea.

Even here in Durham it's still the rain side of sleet. 2.6°C, DP 0.8°C in Gilesgate atm.

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Even here in Durham it's still the rain side of sleet. 2.6°C, DP 0.8°C in Gilesgate atm.

Yeah I am in Durham atm and saw the sleet/graupal/rain.

Classic NE weather mind you!

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TWS, would I be right in saying this easterly would be a 1b on your classification of them?

3.2c (1.0c dew point) here with a surface light NE wind. Drizzle.

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Why temps/dps still highish? shouldn't they be lower? and cold rain here

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