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Osbourne One-Nil

The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

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The uppers are cold enough for low land snow but there wont be to much precip around but cant rule out some snow showers on east coasts.

If you are talking about the warm front that will get nowhere near us which is a good thing as it shows how strong the block is.

Im talking about snow showers coming in from the coast :)

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I think it'll only affect the far west of the mainland to b ehonest, as TEITS has alluded on the model thread, the precip just can't make head way because of the strength of the block.

Are we really going to see any snow showers here in th enorth east before midweek? I'm not convinced we will ...

We should get some wintry flurries on Monday.

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We should get some wintry flurries on Monday.

sunday eve / overnight too? Covering possibilities?

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If the 12z GFS or ECM came off we'd easily be looking at 20-30cm - we had that in around 5 days last November with -8 uppers, so -15 uppers would surely bury us. Feb 1991 and Jan 87 were both severe easterlies, and they both delivered 20-30cm widely in the NE. We got as much as the SE in both those cases, apart from Kent in 87 which saw ridiculous totals.

You must remember though that it all comes down to wind direction and how much instability there is, the ECM is a little marginal until we get to 168 hours where it becomes more favourable regarding wind direction.

Tomorrow is a good example of how cold uppers and warm seas does not automatically mean alot of convective activity, -10hpa over the North sea but because the flow is stable, then theres not as much convective PPN as you might think there is.

We still need some tweeks here and there for our region to become more favourable but the trends over the past few days has been slowly but surely moving the cold from all the way in Italy to Germany and now the ECM has come on board with other GFS runs of having the cold over us.

That said, the stubborn UKMO is having none of it and you never certain of cold unless this model comes on board.

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I don't think there will be any lack of convection if either the ecm or gfs 12z's came off.

Looking at the situation over the north sea for about now,pressure is about 1030mb

with uppers about-5/-6 and yet there are some decent looking showers out there.

With potential uppers between -10 and -15 for the end of next week,i would say things

were looking rosy in the heavy snow shower department!

Of course this is only potential at the moment,and no doubt some more twists and

turns to come.

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I personally think we're in for a major event with some persitent lake (or sea) effect snow . A definite possibilty of some thundersnow.

Oviously depending on wind direction but over the cold period we will be unlucky for winds not to veer in the right direction for us.

Anyone know the sea temperature now compared to previous in similar set-ups in notable events?

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GFS 18z looks very slack, but snowier - tens of cm within 10 miles of the coast, but not as much further inland. It won't come off anyway, it looks like the model is struggling beyond +120.

A decent rash of showers in the North Sea now - we could get a nice surprise on Monday as it is easy to overlook the potential in the short term.

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Good to see the far n england thread back again - however, due to my location I will be posting in the NW thread from time to time as well and possibly scotland -Cumbria perhaps should have its own thread - our geography is diverse and we can see very conditions to the rest of NW Eng and especially NE Eng - often more akin to SW Scotland.. any way enough of that..

Enjoyed a wonderful winters walk today from Thirlspot up to White Side and eventually Great Dodd then a long long trudge to the A66 nr Scales. Deep powder snow above 500m - plenty of skiers using the ski tow on raise and I saw someone with snow shoes on - wish I had some , the going was exceptionally difficult in the powder snow - I'm exhausted.

Today has been by far the best day this winter for anyone who likes winter walking in the fells - the reason being a combination of fresh powder snow and no wind - absolutely not a breath of wind - it was great relaxing on the tops, and not having to cover your face all the time.

Back to the weather - yes the cold will dig in deeper next week, how cold remains to be seen, eastern parts of the region could see some snow showers later next week as convection kicks into gear. If the atlantic does make inroads I think it will have a major battle on its hand much as it is having now - and a battleground snow event could occur most likely in the west.. but its a long way off.

Personally I would prefer heights to build to our NW eventually as this guarantees a greater chance of snow for us thanks to N/NE airstream, we can do ok under an easterly but it needs to be a strong one - otherwise the shower activity dies of death when it reaches the Pennines - mind the bonus is often days of bright sunshine and deep penetrating frost.

I'm looking forward to the coming days and keeping abreast of this thread.

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GFS 18z looks very slack, but snowier - tens of cm within 10 miles of the coast, but not as much further inland. It won't come off anyway, it looks like the model is struggling beyond +120.

A decent rash of showers in the North Sea now - we could get a nice surprise on Monday as it is easy to overlook the potential in the short term.

That's the thing, North sea convectivity is so unpredictable. It can majorly dissapoint or majorly suprise.

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GFS 18z looks very slack, but snowier - tens of cm within 10 miles of the coast, but not as much further inland. It won't come off anyway, it looks like the model is struggling beyond +120.

A decent rash of showers in the North Sea now - we could get a nice surprise on Monday as it is easy to overlook the potential in the short term.

Yep alza as I pointed out sunday night / monday could be decent!

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BOOM- first north sea convection watch of the year now.

Tomorrow, probably some light flurries with a slight south east wind- temps around 2-4c in cities and on the coast, cooler inland.. Not many showers due to a more SE breeze, but northumberland and ne yorkshire may see a bit.

Monday, similar but possibly cooler, my thinking is that we see the block exert more influence and the front battles w'wards- maybe a higher chance of snow showers..

Tuesday- troughs, shortwaves, occluded and warm fronts- too much uncertainty, FAX, NAE and NMM most important in this regard.

Very confident o/an initial siberian/scandi block with e/se winds to begin february- possibly turning colder due to upper trough movement advocating much colder air towards britain- and a generally retrograde motion block- moving into greenland-iceland later.. Undercutting could promote some very cold air.. UKMO not too confident currently- but it is good to ere on the side of caution, and the FAX is less shabby tbf.

Remember, sst's are around 6-8c, by mid-feb it'll probably be more 3-6c, so cold pooling IS important--

V pleasing north sea currently- more convection o/night and hopefully tomorrow and some showers shifting nw'wards inland.

Regarding snow cover I would be less confident- but patience is key, and in this scenario- everything is hit and miss.. Snow accu and falling profiles and predictions are futile.

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Temp touching -2 and the radar is showing some activity moving towards us from the sea....Will it make it??

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I personally think we're in for a major event with some persitent lake (or sea) effect snow . A definite possibilty of some thundersnow.

Oviously depending on wind direction but over the cold period we will be unlucky for winds not to veer in the right direction for us.

Anyone know the sea temperature now compared to previous in similar set-ups in notable events?

The flow is often more from the SE initially, which doesn't always work that well further north.

May well just be mainly sunny most days.

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Quite a few showers already in the north sea and moving east uppers droping to -6 so will be a wintry mix to low levels they wont push inland as there is next to no wind, dewpoint currently just below freezing, first snow radar watching of the year :drinks:

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Just had a quick FAX and NMM look-

First the FAX, another westward shift it seems- but only marginally so leaving the east-slp regime in the north sea and us with an east/south-east flow at the surface* until tuesday- we have a trough and occluded front around the north sea, and precip definitely could pep up- eventually we have an east flow by tuesday.

Note the *-- I just had a look at the NMM and 850hpa wind flow, which generally guides the clouds and showers is at around east or east-southeast for much of today- I didn't look at tomorrow's- accompany this with the current picture of -6c uppers for much of the north sea- the fetch is not enough in the e north sea to promote convection- but as we move later on in this afternoon- wind looks positive, that convection fetch is strong- colder uppers continue to make inroads and flurries and showers are possible- especially in the north york moors or on coastlines.

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Sky does look very threatening at the moment and still near -1C

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It's looking fairly certain that we will have a proper cold easterly by Wednesday now. I'd be surprised if we don't get significant snow Wednesday - Friday.

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Would this -I think it's an occluded front- help us get some showers on Tuesday?

uk_pressure_20120129_048.gif

There also appears to be a trough for tonight into Monday...

uk_pressure_20120129_024.gif

Radar actually doesn't look that bad today anyways,

post-8771-0-65404900-1327836726_thumb.pn

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Would this -I think it's an occluded front- help us get some showers on Tuesday?

uk_pressure_20120129_048.gif

There also appears to be a trough for tonight into Monday...

uk_pressure_20120129_024.gif

Radar actually doesn't look that bad today anyways,

post-8771-0-65404900-1327836726_thumb.pn

We need the wind to turn more to the East... is it due to today?

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Some shower activity nr Blyth/Morpeth currently which is promising- a lot of convection has been around the coastline but failed to penetrate inland but I think the isobar tightening is nr the area- and the colder uppers are promoting convection around the danish straits. The fetch is becoming favourable for SES--

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Some shower activity nr Blyth/Morpeth currently which is promising- a lot of convection has been around the coastline but failed to penetrate inland but I think the isobar tightening is nr the area- and the colder uppers are promoting convection around the danish straits. The fetch is becoming favourable for SES--

Will the wind swing round a bit more ESE later, IS, do you think?

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Rain in NE Scotland - we could end up the same.

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We need the wind to turn more to the East... is it due to today?

More South East really turning Easterly overnight according to latest Met Office forecast (which always changes)...

The fetch is becoming favourable for SES--

What is SES Arjan? :p

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