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Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

A.J

By A.J
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Cwmbran Eira Contributor

Cwmbran Eira

Posted
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
Posted (edited)

Beeb showed nothing over me.....typical....i think they will get this very wrong..,with snow everywhere....

I know what you mean but the very slow progression of the front has got to be a good thing which increases your chances in my opinion. Forecasts are never too reliable with snow.

Keep positive!

Edited by Cwmbran Eira
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Cwmbran Eira Contributor

Cwmbran Eira

Posted
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
Posted

GFS 06z today is being very generous - 18 hours potentially of snow for South/Mid Wales Sunday and Monday - and now with a slight twist more snow progged for Thursday also

gfs-2012012806-2-120.png?6

gfs-2012012806-2-126.png?6

gfs-2012012806-2-132.png?6

If the GFS 00z comes off for towards the end of the week we will be looking at a couple of feet of snow all over Wales - we will just grind to a halt folks - fill up the larders - this could get very nasty!

gfs-2012012806-2-168.png?6

So that's at least 12hrs of snow nailed tmrw then! ha!

Seriously though. What depths could we be looking at?

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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

Nice!

Should be a good test of the block- if the precipitation arrives quicker than anticipated the block may be a little weaker than thought, if it struggles to get here, it'll be a sign of the block's strength.

Latest NAE has first precipitation reaching west coast between 3am and 6am-

12012909_2806.gif

Is it correct to say that the precipitation sliding down from the NW in a SEerly direction is good for us, as it'll pull the colder air in more quickly behind it, thus accelerating the change from rain to snow and also giving snowfall to a wider area?

Also it won't erode the cold air to the E, as a direct approach of the front from the west might have done?

I'll be amazed and delighted if I see snow in my location!

Upland Carmarthenshire and the Western Brecons are looking especially snowy from Sunday onwards, atm, imo.

My patch :) I do hope so :) theres a covering of snow already above 500m here :)

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

I know what you mean but the very slow progression of the front has got to be a good thing which increases your chances in my opinion. Forecasts are never too reliable with snow.

Keep positive!

Will do! Thanks :D

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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

Twitter from met AkKdA3UCEAEAIGp.jpg

Youll find thats friday's warning, as its only icy stretches for Wales, that's an outdated warning, the warnings haven't changed since yesterday although I expect they will.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

One thing seems to be appearing in today output the battle ground seems to be over Wales ,the potential for huge amounts of snow over west UK.

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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

Hey guys, lookin good for us welshies it seems. Are we really looking at feet of snow end of week lol. Best stock up on beer then haha.

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ourson Apprentice

ourson

Posted
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and warm summers
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
Posted

The METO seem to down-playing the whole thing apart from the mountain forecast. I'm not holding my breath for my back yard as I'm close to the coast and very low down. Way well get a day or two off from work (more elevated) which I'll take!!

A number of positive signs though - Andy Music and his RAMP, and a visit from kold weather into the Cymru/Wales thread.

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted (edited)

The METO seem to down-playing the whole thing apart from the mountain forecast. I'm not holding my breath for my back yard as I'm close to the coast and very low down. Way well get a day or two off from work (more elevated) which I'll take!!

A number of positive signs though - Andy Music and his RAMP, and a visit from kold weather into the Cymru/Wales thread.

Indeed ourson and signs looking good next week too!

Edited by Snowmadsam
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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

Am i right in saying us in the west are looking best for snow prospects?

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Cwmbran Eira Contributor

Cwmbran Eira

Posted
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
Posted

Am i right in saying us in the west are looking best for snow prospects?

Absolutely. Battle ground is what Wales and the west do best and we have plenty of those lined up

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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

I best polish the sledge then cant wait. Haha i actually am a little kid lol.

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

I best polish the sledge then cant wait. Haha i actually am a little kid lol.

Meto updated warnings :D

Risk of SNOW Sunday AND Monday now :D

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benb Explorer

benb

Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
Posted (edited)

My patch :) I do hope so :) theres a covering of snow already above 500m here :)

Great! Be sure to keep us posted on depths/snow level, as and when?! Diolch.

Possibly be heading out your way, next weekend, if the current forecasts are correct (and the roads aren't impassable! He! He! :D.)

It's too early to be saying with any certainty who's going to get what and when. Even this morning, the GFS has moved the battleground slightly further E than it was progged to be last night. I'm expecting further changes- some of us are going to be disappointed, I'm sure, but there's also going to be some pleasant wintry surprises throughout next week for many of us, too.

I'm just hoping the cold air will make it to Pembrokeshire!

Edited by benb
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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

Rhybuddion wedi'i ei ddiweddaru bron yn cynnwys yr un lleoliadau ond does dim geiriau i fynd gyda'r ddiweddariad eto, does bosib bod nhw dal wrthi yn ceisio'u llunio.

Warnings are now being updated covering pretty much the same area there is no description yet as to details of the warning, they must be still at it.

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whiskers Enthusiast

whiskers

Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
Posted

hi cwmbran eira im not far from you,actually be there shopping today stocking up,are we really going to get snow so excited! I work in a primary school,absolutely luv it when i get a txt to say school is closed, do you think there will be enough snow to close school?

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted (edited)

FRESH IN MY E-MAIL IN BOX - This just in from the METO - extended forward by 12 hours - wow! - 24 hours of snow! - my God we're in for a treat

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Wrexham, Newport, Bridgend & Cardiff valid from 1200 Sun 29 Jan to 1200 Mon 30 Jan

With snow amber and red alerts tend to be last minute as things get progressively worse - sort of nowcasting - bit late really! but snow is a hard one to nail down most of the time

OURSON - Cardiff is mentioned in the warning above!!!!!!!

Edited by andymusic
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whiskers Enthusiast

whiskers

Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
Posted (edited)

when do they turn hte colour to red ,if they think its gong to be bad?

sorry about the spelling soooooooo excited,what i meant to write is when do they change the warning to red if its going to be bad?

Edited by whiskers
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ourson Apprentice

ourson

Posted
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and warm summers
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
Posted (edited)

FRESH IN MY E-MAIL IN BOX - This just in from the METO - extended forward by 12 hours - wow! - 24 hours of snow! - my God we're in for a treat

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Wrexham, Newport, Bridgend & Cardiff valid from 1200 Sun 29 Jan to 1200 Mon 30 Jan

Looking better and better - fingers and toes crossed. Hope to see Cardiff being pulled deeper into the yellow zone as we get closer. Have to say that Cardiff is often left out or on the edge due to us being close to the sea, but have had some cracking snow during the last two winters. I have faith.

Edited by ourson
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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

Just catching up in here, my computer has been having some issues, so trying to get it fixed.

A few days ago I made the point that there may be a trade off between the cold getting here and it bring mostly dry. or the HP having more issues geting further west. After some stella runs last night, that seems the current trade off.

sunday into Monday looks a real battleground event (the first of potentially many), looking at Meto beta website, temps look to 1-4c over most of Wales even to low ground on the coast, So as things stand and could completely change, a lot of any precipitation might be of snow. Of course the usual previsos of inland and higher ground helps.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

when do they turn hte colour to red ,if they think its gong to be bad?

sorry about the spelling soooooooo excited,what i meant to write is when do they change the warning to red if its going to be bad?

Hard to say tomorrow noon update maybe.
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