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Southern England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

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Met office 16 to 30 day update sounds good

Below average temps

Above average rainfall

The fence may have collapsed lol

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Bugger. (again)

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

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Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow.

tumblr_kx4uf7R5Cz1qz7ag3o1_400.gif

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Lol. The met must be quite sure now then

That is quite strong wording they have used there

Not a 50/50 forecast

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Hail, sleet, rain, sleet, rain...... near Frome, Somerset, just a few minutes ago

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Im dreaming of a thames streamer... Just like the ones I used to know. :drinks::p

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Now your talking

Would deffo not be a dry easterly then

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Bugger. (again) UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012: Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average. Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

I think they may have a typo and that prolonged spells of rain should be prolonged spells of snow.

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OMG+cat+GIF.gif

:clapping::rofl:

You're a joker!!

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a108.gif Going to quickly share something with you that those already using NW extra have the privilege of. This is from NW's own high-res NMM model and actually shows a slight risk for tomorrow, so things are defiantly moving in the right direction!

post-6667-0-11567700-1327677433_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-31902700-1327677241_thumb.pn

Again these charts are not to be taken literally, but it all adds weight to a general trend building

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At last a cold spell is upon us with the upper air temperatures to support precipitation falling as snow. Members of the forum should take a step back and watch things unfold and try not to get too uptight as things chop and change between each model run. Get the cold air in place first and then watch for expected and unexpected snow showers to arrive.

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well that was a fun drive home - blue skies and a rainbow to my east (where I was heading) and one giant ominous black cloud to my west - felt like it was chasing me home! Got home to bluey-grey skies then there was a brieft heavy downpour, now it's drizzling. I see NW radar is showing lightning close by - not seen any yet myself but that would be a nice way to finish the day (especially as Murray lost the damned tennis!) :)

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Cold ( i have one at present) hasnt arrived yet, tonight according to Met Office will be wet here, i think cool and Dry tomorrow 7c ( thought it might be cooler) i think the 528 line is over here Sunday? just, and then taking a hike arround the SE

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WHOOOO Netweather radar paid for. Now bring on the snow. :clapping::drinks:

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From the MO, updated lunchtime today. Suggests there is still the risk of some milder air pushing in to the West, how far it gets who knows. This seems a very sensible update based on the models as they stand today. Given the model variance over the last week or more, however, this could all change again! In the meantime, it looks promising for some in our region if you like the cold.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. At the same time westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and sometimes snow on hills. Temperatures will probably be below average, and windchill will make it feel colder still when exposed to the easterly winds. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather seems likely. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with central and eastern areas being most prone. However, milder conditions may well push into the north and west at times.

Updated: 1230 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

Also, here is a link for today's video from a senior MO forecaster, that uses the phrase 'prolonged cold spell'. Do try to stay calm folks:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/cold-weather-setting-in

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Well GFS kicking things off in a similar vein to NMM and others, with the first shakings maybe tomorrow for some!

post-6667-0-57650200-1327679445_thumb.pn

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Then it's showing Sunday afternoon as the beginning of the battle with the SE smack bang in the middle as it descends:

post-6667-0-28112500-1327679949_thumb.pn

Then it starts filling for a couple of hours before backing off:

post-6667-0-00004200-1327679989_thumb.pn

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Then Monday the real stuff begins.........

post-6667-0-27731700-1327680383_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-85244800-1327680417_thumb.pn

East Kent maybe in for a good pasting!

post-6667-0-09000100-1327680462_thumb.pn

If this run of GFS came off as is, I've suddenly found myself living next to the English version of the Alpes!

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sorry going to ask the question again, do these GFS precipitation charts show a cumulative accumulation, or what is chucked down in a given period, if the latter, what is the period.

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Then Monday the real stuff begins.........

East Kent maybe in for a good pasting!

yeah that would be right, just as I'm driving away!

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Hi all, sorry to be a pain but this thread covers a huge area and I am not gonna ask you the painful question of will it snow over my house at exactly 4pm on Sunday, but all this excitement and ramping, does it include Essex?

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

watch the showers heading our way!!!

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The rain showers have arrived here temps dropd a bit to,could be intresting if it gets below 0c tonite.still looks a battel for monday rain/snow in places.could be intresting or verry cold and wet we will have to wait and see on this one.

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sorry going to ask the question again, do these GFS precipitation charts show a cumulative accumulation, or what is chucked down in a given period, if the latter, what is the period.

Cumulative in that period I believe but TBH it's only a guestimate and it's the trend/possibility that I'm highlighting, not specific amounts or locations.

post-6667-0-13766700-1327682018_thumb.pn

Wednesday on is not special for us in the South, but as the models have been flopping around like a fat seal on the beach in a David Attenborough documentary - I'm not even concerned at that point, so far away in FI!

Edit: Mind you UKMO charts are touting more from then on!!!!!

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The precip charts from the models are useless at this range. They won't pick up on small scale features like troughs until very close to the event and sometimes not at all (surprise snowfalls are the best snowfalls!). I wouldn't even bother looking at them to be honest. Now it looks like we will get genuine cold in place (just watch the ECM go belly up now...), just stay tuned to the FAX charts and high-res models for the short term events is what I would advise :)

Edit: But the GFS 12z today is probably the best run you will see all winter. Stunning.

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