The Midlands, East Anglia & The 3 Counties Regional Discussion - Part 5

[conor123]

It's a shame in a way the block is now looking so strong as Sunday/Monday could be a decent snow event if everything shifts a bit eastwards again.

[andy_leics22]

The temperature is higher than I expected today :huh: 8.0c at the moment with a dew of 2.2c, NEVER going to snow in those conditions, I think we'll have to wait until Sunday now at least to see a bit of snow.

[A.J]

It's a shame in a way the block is now looking so strong as Sunday/Monday could be a decent snow event if everything shifts a bit eastwards again.

Ironic isn't it.....We pray for blocking to create battleground scenarios, we must be praying too hard! it's a bit late in the day but hopefully the initial block won't be quite as progressive as currently modeled to allow us a snowy sunday/monday

[Barbmac]

Malvern has a yellow alert for snow on Monday 3am-12pm, so fingers crossed.

Shouldn't we be using reverse psychology on the weather? Let's all pray for BBQ weather next week, that ought to do it! B)

[A.J]

Ok folks, with the prospect of wintry weather in the offing it's likely that the Regional threads are going to get quite busy over the next few days, so just a quick heads up that in all likely hood, we'll be splitting up the amalgamated regional threads into their constituent regional threads sometime in the near future

[Bogman]

Bugger.

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[Hughsey]

Ok folks, with the prospect of wintry weather in the offing it's likely that the Regional threads are going to get quite busy over the next few days, so just a quick heads up that in all likely hood, we'll be splitting up the amalgamated regional threads into their constituent regional threads sometime in the near future

Good to hear, having this thread cover such a wide area is confusing me . I hear west of the region and think it is me, when suddenly I realise it means 150 miles to my west. Edited January 27, 2012 by Hughsey

[jimben]

Bugger.

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

My reading of the above suggests a very very cold month and therefore rainfall will most often fall as snow interspersed with plenty of blue sky days to enjoy the snow.

My glass however, is always half full.

[andy_leics22]

My reading of the above suggests a very very cold month and therefore rainfall will most often fall as snow interspersed with plenty of blue sky days to enjoy the snow.

My glass however, is always half full.

My advice would be.. Take absolutely no notice of a forecast for the 11th-25th of February, F.I in the models is February the 2nd at the moment. So trying to forecast something as far away as February the 11th is a suicidal move from the Met Office IMO.

Edited January 27, 2012 by andy_leics22

[jimben]

My advice would be.. Take absolutely no notice of a forecast for the 11th-25th of February, F.I in the models is February the 2nd at the moment. So trying to forecast something as far away as February the 11th is a suicidal move from the Met Office IMO.

I'm not. I was merely giving my interpretation to Bogman of the Met Office Outlook for the period from 11 Febraury 2012 to 25 February 2012.

As I am sure you will agree Andy these Outlook's together with FI can be extremely useful in spotting and or supporting trends albeit with the usual caveats.

[mr benn]

Quick thanks to those wh replied to my question about tonight.

Id pretty much decided not to venture out anyway

Blinking weather - roll on the milder weather I say

[tinybill]

all eyea

west at the moment been reading the northen thread heavy showers heading our way the line of showers in the bedford area at this time

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[jimben]

Light rain shower. Temp 6.3c and dewpoint 2.0c

After shower had passed Temp has fallen sharply to 5.3c and dewpoint down to 1.4c

Edited January 27, 2012 by jimben

[Snow Obsession]

Just had a hail shower here. Looked quite white on the cars for a while - hoping they'll be even whiter next week...

[andy_leics22]

I'm not. I was merely giving my interpretation to Bogman of the Met Office Outlook for the period from 11 Febraury 2012 to 25 February 2012.

As I am sure you will agree Andy these Outlook's together with FI can be extremely useful in spotting and or supporting trends albeit with the usual caveats.

Oh don't get me wrong Jim, they serve a purpose and i'm not criticizing you for posting it. I just think at the moment with the huge uncertainty in the models from run to run... I can't even believe anything forecast for next Wednesday at the moment :lol:

[jimben]

Fantastic runs from both GFS and UKMO puts the UK well and truly in the freezer next week with potentially epic snowfall, one chart shows midday temp acoss the midlands of minus 6 !! Should be some fantastic winter climbing conditions in both the Peak District and Lake Disatrict. I shall definitely being taking some time off.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 12z is the best run ive ever seen especially for pure prolonged cold. Its probably an outlier somewhere but my god what a shift from how things were yesterday. Some very cold conditions possible and snow chances a little later on. Are we about to be paid back big time? We deserve it anyway!

[Costa Del Fal]

Just rain showers here this afternoon but still the main band to come through in a short while. Most of the snow reports are from this so hopefully we may see something then.

[Gary-North Stoke]

Little bit north of our region but good viewing of the Traffic CCTV on the M62....HEAVY SNOW !!!! Just incase you forgot what it looks like.

http://www.trafficen...spx?ct=true#mtf

Camera link.

http://www.trafficengland.com/trafficcamera.aspx?cameraUri=http://public.hanet.org.uk/cctvpublicaccess/html/31751.html

Edited January 27, 2012 by GS Gritting Services-Stoke

[Hughsey]

Little bit north of our region but good viewing of the Traffic CCTV on the M62....HEAVY SNOW !!!! Just incase you forgot what it looks like.

http://www.trafficen...spx?ct=true#mtf

Yeah looks pretty bad at j22, but then that is quite a high area at 250m ASL, would like to see some of that next week!

Edited January 27, 2012 by Hughsey

[Gary-North Stoke]

Yeah looks pretty bad at j22, but then that is quite a high area at 250m ASL, would like to see some of that next week!

Yep sure is...Its the lead upto the Saddleworth Moor section of the Motorway and allways gets hammered.Sunday/Monday for us further south me thinks.

[jimben]

Turning white in the peak district http://www.maccinfo.com/Flash/

[A.J]

The 12z GFS is an absolutely insane run for coldies, easterlies kicking in at around T48, gathering strength and continuing throughout the run then morphing into a northerly right in the outer reaches of FI...I do suspect it's an outlier and would expect the ensembles to show this shortly...If not, then we're in the freezer big time and will stay there for the forseeable future....The UKMO 12z output (which goes out to T144) agrees broadly with the GFS run...for those who have access to the model outputs, the 2 key elements are the huge russian high migrating westwards and setting up shop over Sweden/Finland (air moves clockwise around the high) and low pressure anchored developing and anchoring over the central Meditteranean (air moves anticlockwise around the low) this process draws the frigid air which is situated further to the east westwards towards and eventually over the UK....An interesting wait now for the 12z ECMWF output which rolls out in the next hour......again, a word of caution, the cold/wintry spell is not locked in yet, but if the models are still in general agreement by this time tomorrow, it will be

[Gary-North Stoke]

Turning white in the peak district http://www.maccinfo.com/Flash/

It was Snowing around Buxton earlier on in the day but never made it to Flash. Heavy rain here in North Stoke!

[Staffordshire]

This is mainly to ajpoolshark and snow? Norfolk n chance, what dyou recon the ppm type will be here - about 4ish we had some rain and I saw some sleety flakes in it don't know about you two I'm 170m asl.