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lorenzo

Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

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Just in case there's anybody interested and experiencing a clear sky, perhaps worth looking north for possible aurora:

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Better agreement across all the models this morning for colder weather from end of the week. Things definately look to have taken a swing towards more of an influence from the East/North East. The most positive I've felt that the Atlantic will come up against a brick wall this winter. Ups and downs to come this week but the trend looks good.

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In your experience, do the geese on the move mean anything? ie do they know things we don't ? When I was wee (before the Crimean War lol) we saw hundreds of geese every winter. Now hardly ever, until this year. This year they're back. Maybe it means nothing and they just changed their flyways... I don't know. But I find it interesting and would like to know more. :)

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In your experience, do the geese on the move mean anything? ie do they know things we don't ? When I was wee (before the Crimean War lol) we saw hundreds of geese every winter. Now hardly ever, until this year. This year they're back. Maybe it means nothing and they just changed their flyways... I don't know. But I find it interesting and would like to know more. :)

Cold and clear this AM. Temp @ 1C with a gentle breeze, making it raw again.

Not sure if it means anything, but Geese tend to only start moving when feeding grounds begin to freeze, but here is a study that flocks are delaying and shrinking. Not going to start a GW debate, but worth a read. http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15783321

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Wow that's interesting, ta. I dont want to get into GW either, I just wanted to know where the geese were and that answered it. Thanks !

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Cold and clear this AM. Temp @ 1C with a gentle breeze, making it raw again.

Not sure if it means anything, but Geese tend to only start moving when feeding grounds begin to freeze, but here is a study that flocks are delaying and shrinking. Not going to start a GW debate, but worth a read. http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15783321

Never a shortage of geese round these parts at this time of year...never realised the flocks were shrinking.

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Never a shortage of geese round these parts at this time of year...never realised the flocks were shrinking.

Try telling that to the farmers on Islay!

1C and partly cloudy just now. WMFS?

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WTF did this come from?! It wasn't there this morning, I swear... Very welcome, although my 96m asl is unlikely to benefit - but woohoo and doesn't it just show how rapidly things change just at present - really unpredictable predictions!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-16683010 "The yellow "be aware" warning covers an area stretching from the Highlands to the east and west Midlands."

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5c here at the moment, just had a very pleasant walk out to take Pootette to nursery. It's very nice in the sun. Where did that yellow warning come from?? Looking a bit better for towards the end of the week as well :good:

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Oh brilliant - I don't care where it came from as long as it's RIGHT! B)

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Being in the Border Hills, you may well be in luck!

I really need to move to, say, the top of Soutra or the bottom of Lauderdale, don't I? I live in sooooo much the wrong place for a snow-lover - bring on the Dec 2010 weather patterns, I say - nice big easterly full of heavy snow, PleasePleasePleasePleasePlease...!

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Next time you come over Soutra going S, turn right and gimme a wee wave ! :lol: I'm not far away lol

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I used to know the little B6368 up to the right past Soutra Aisle quite well, twenty years ago - a gorgeous beautiful area and I envy you!!

Off to see my young man now - train over the Bridge, another beautiful sight!

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It was a lovely sunny day - but feeling very bitter out(maybe because i was working outside today). Hope tomorrow is ok and not wet or i'll be working outside within the shelter of the garage!!

Charts are showing so much promise its unbearable to look now as i would hate for the snow prospects not to come now after all this waiting!!

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The temperature is dropping quite quickly tonight for some parts. I'm down from a high of 7.1c earlier this afternoon to 3.2c just now.

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Some heavy snow showers this morning when I left the house, went on to become an overcast yet fine cold day other than that. Currently 2.2C

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Big upgrade on the 12Zs tonight, especially on the all important UKMO. Looks like I'll have to do a big summary or two tonight. One will be on the short range forecast - snow potential tomorrow morning for many and perhaps on Thursday too with the other a look at the longer range modelling, ensembles, teleconnections and ultimately whether the easterly is going to verify or not.

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Big upgrade on the 12Zs tonight, especially on the all important UKMO. Looks like I'll have to do a big summary or two tonight. One will be on the short range forecast - snow potential tomorrow morning for many and perhaps on Thursday too with the other a look at the longer range modelling, ensembles, teleconnections and ultimately whether the easterly is going to verify or not.

Looking at the current runs, the easterly flow is a bit too far south for my liking. Remember the easterly of early Feb 2001, it came and went on the models in the weeks leading up to it with the core of the cold heading for southern England. Of course the easterly ended up much further north, a bit too far north, but the central belt got plenty snow on ground above 100m. There was even a proper Polar Low across the Shetland Islands that developed in the easterly flow. I hope this easterly goes north a bit.

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1C & clear but no lights. NMM suggests snow only on hills around here tomorrow morning but I don't know whether to believe it - its recent track record is patchy.

Today was a funny day, mostly slizzly rubbish but a couple of brighter spells. Doesn't the sun make a difference to a day?

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GFS 12Z was pretty good as it shows one or two decent shots at an easterly but as snow1975 says it's a bit south for my liking and the PV at the end didn't seem quite as weak in previous runs. It's also pretty chilly out there and I'll be interested to see if we might get some snow tomorrow.

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Looking at the current runs, the easterly flow is a bit too far south for my liking. Remember the easterly of early Feb 2001, it came and went on the models in the weeks leading up to it with the core of the cold heading for southern England. Of course the easterly ended up much further north, a bit too far north, but the central belt got plenty snow on ground above 100m. There was even a proper Polar Low across the Shetland Islands that developed in the easterly flow. I hope this easterly goes north a bit.

I think the November/January last year was close to the perfect easterly for Scotland - arctic sourced, sub -8 uppers throughout, heights ridging to Greenland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101130.gif

This looks more of a continental sourced easterly, but with the UKMO I suspect there would be potential for a northwestward jolt to the pattern as time went on. Yesterday's GFS 12Z was very good IMBY with -10 uppers in the mix but as snow cover and surface cold becomes established across the continent the cold pool will become more intense anyway and I reckon that IF we can get the cross model consensus at 120 hours to verify we'd be unlucky not to see a decent bount of cold uppers heading our way.

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Big upgrade on the 12Zs tonight, especially on the all important UKMO. Looks like I'll have to do a big summary or two tonight. One will be on the short range forecast - snow potential tomorrow morning for many and perhaps on Thursday too with the other a look at the longer range modelling, ensembles, teleconnections and ultimately whether the easterly is going to verify or not.

Aye, looking very tasty.

In the meantime, might need me winter tyres up soutra the morn...

12012406_2312.gif

12012412_2312.gif

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Ground frost with sparkling grass already after a very wet sleety day. Currently 0.5c and falling Been to dentist and got eyes tested today more expense so grumpy old farmer tonight

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