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kold weather

Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan

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Right here is a new thread for ready for the 12z suite. The team is keeping a close eye on this thread and how it progresses, so keep it civil and please respect other people.

If you want to post one-liners that have no real evaultion of the models, post here or expect it to be deleted:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72172-model-chat-banter/page__pid__2213390__st__380#entry2213390

Other then that, hope everyone has a good time.

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Just before this thread gets going, three people have had their membership suspended for varying lengths of time for a variety of reasons. Everyone needs to understand that this forum is run by volunteers and as such, we owe nobody anything; no one has a divine right to post here. There are always going to be posts which need removing, or intermittent problems; that's fine and we accept that as part of running a forum. We will not, however, tolerate deliberate inflammatory posts or abuse. We know that 99% (or perhaps even more) of you would never dream of doing either thing, but with a membership of 13573, that means there are 135 and a quarter of you that will....132 and quarter members to go then!

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An example of how models can change on the 12z GFS.

The low to the far west of Ireland is some 15mb deeper @T48 than shown on the 6z. Just an illustration of run to run variation and obviously these changes effect the big picture in the long run :)

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I'm hopeful we will some sort of change on the GFS output, it seems to be stuck on a broken record with negligible difference between each output all the way up to T192.

Looking at the 6z T850 ensembles for Oslo

post-8968-0-92691800-1326642930_thumb.pn

12Z ensembles

There is a clear divergence between the operational and the rest of the suite, this was prevalent yesterday too

post-8968-0-31409900-1326643053_thumb.pn

Yesterdays 18z ensembles

We have only got two options.

1.) Low pressure fails to reach Oslo and we see a North West/South East Trajectory of the lows, cold air stays over our North East with high pressure centered over Northern Europe but not over Oslo.

2.) The Operational is correct and the rest of the ensembles fall in line.

You can't really have a midway point either, the high acts as a block or it transfers further east at the force of the lows.

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Interesting to see that on the GFS 12Z at T54 the depression heading north towards Iceland has been modelled as a lot deeper than on the 06Z. I'm no expert but surely this must have an effect down the line...

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Looking ok so far from GFS

gfs-2012011512-0-90.png?12

Can the Low pressure keep of moving south I hope so

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GFS not morphing towards a ridge towards greenland

gfsnh-2012011512-0-102.png?12

From the north side of Greenland Down & the ridge is now getting up there in the atalntic-

See the jet flow kink over greenland now

gfsnh-2012011512-5-102.png?12

This will be the best GFS run so FAR

S

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Interesting to see that on the GFS 12Z at T54 the depression heading north towards Iceland has been modelled as a lot deeper than on the 06Z. I'm no expert but surely this must have an effect down the line...

Classic GFS 12z actually, as i said on the chatroom it nearly always produces deeper LP's in the shorter term, not sure why that would be the case but it is something I've noticed for quite a number of years now.

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gfsnh-2012011512-0-108.png?12

note now for the first time in 4 days & 16 GFS runs there is NO phasing of the low over iceland V the low exiting Canada

gfsnh-2012011512-0-108.png?12

S

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GFS is looking good tonight finally coming in line with ECM an UKMO hopefully

gfs-2012011512-0-114.png?12

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Looks more like the ensemble mean so far. Hopefully we can get this nailed now and it won't be an outlier. then we can pick at the detail. Looking good so far for the NW to end the week

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12z GFS looks like moving to a consensus.

With a better set up in the Atlantic :) More ridging to Greenland

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Definitely more amplification and ridging towards Greenland on this run so far.

gfsnh-2012011512-0-114.png?12

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interesting GFS so far, its not done yet, it may throw a huge wobbly in the low res, or the ECM may go off track now!

still interesting times ahead.

fromey

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Obviously the 12z is nothing special but it has moved in the right direction. What we need to scrape something from this is a good UKM and that backtrack by ECM towards its output of 2 days ago :)

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Yes and this ties in with comments from NOAA regarding it being a flat outlier in the ne USA in terms of its 00hrs run.

I notice it sticks another shortwave near Denmark which holds back the ridge to the east from backing over the trough.

Maybe it will get rid of this later!

Sorry the shortwaves over Norway but still is a nuisance!

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Massive improvement gtom GFS its now firmly inline with the Euros with the trough digging into Europe.

Will the Atlantic allow for blocking to devlop though or will the azores high toppple?

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Well not a bad run so far from the GFS, there is indeed more amplfication and the 120hrs looks very similar to the ECM quick cold shot at 120hrs. doesn'ty really warm up that much over this week bar maybe a brief 24hrs blip.

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Hopefully this is considered model-related enough to avoid deletion..........

Have the forum mods ever considered displaying the runtimes for the various models as a permanent feature on each page, for example perhaps as a bar similar to the yellow "Model watching:" one showing near the top of this page?

Just a friendly suggestion :)

Bish

You can actually see this info on the chart viewers for at least a few of the models - will make an effort to get them all updated with times etc over the next few days.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

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Can the ever consistent UKM continue it's consistency tonight?

96hrs shows things cooling down from the west across UK & IRE

UW96-21.GIF?15-17

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You know when looking at the 12z the opportunity for another back door easterly is there around 132h as the trough drops into europe but yet again the jet just will not allow for it with all the energy going north.

Be interesting to see what the euros make of it now that its clear the gfs was barking up the wrong tree with its flat pattern.

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If i remember rightly from last year the gfs can really only be trusted upto 7 days is that still correct? They have been swaying all week! Who thinks we will see one major snow event this year in the UK?

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UKM not as good as last nights but still showing a colder incursion.

If i remember rightly from last year the gfs can really only be trusted upto 7 days is that still correct? They have been swaying all week! Who thinks we will see one major snow event this year in the UK?

Every model has been swaying all week. Maybe with the UKM being the exception.

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UKM not as good as last nights but still showing a colder incursion. Every model has been swaying all week. Maybe with the UKM being the exception.

Looks EXACTLY like the tail end of Jan 86 charts I posted last night...

UN144-21.GIF?15-17

524 Thickness in the SE at 144

S

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