Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[lorenzo]

Into January now and an interesting period of weather watching coming up.

Will the Atlantic conveyor belt of storms end? Will it turn to a more colder set up? Will our resident Polar Vortex go on holiday or pay us a visit?

Please continue below...

[Cheggers]

I'll get the ball rolling. Frosty start, with lethal roads. 1C when I fell oot ma pit the morn.

[BleakMidwinter]

Mild breeze and xc says 2 degrees and pressure 1020 here, forecast by xcweather to go up to the high 1030s on Mon/tues. I'm not sure I knew it went up that high I'm so used to it being below 1000...

Ok, before I embarrass myself, I know metcheck is not quite the thing and I know January 17th is 11 days away so not quite the thing either, but all the same, I can't help squeaking a bit because for the first time this winter, the 'Heavy Snow' icon is shown for Edinburgh... I know, I know, it won't happen, it's only a daydream based on a not-very-good site's ridiculously-in-advance forecast.... but... but...

[edo]

3.4 here and signs of that big yellow ba**ard (copyright Rab C) trying to come out again....very calm aswell.....the default wind setting must be broken today

[A Winter's Tale]

It's good to see that some more models are playing ball. Here in Torrance, today has been a nothing day, no rain, no wind, no sun, no cold or mild temperatures. Quite a contrast to the storm the other day!

[Poots]

It was -3c at 7am this morning and it's hovering around 0c at the moment, pressure up now and the sun is out, albeit a bit watery. Being honest, although I am missing a bit of snow action, I'm so happy to see a few calm, cold and crisp days ahead and being able to hear myself think at night without things constantly hitting off the window.

[A Winter's Tale]

I also noticed that there's an easterly brewing at the end of the GFS run. Mainly settled for Scotland but who knows. I would think that it's unlikely to happen but it's good that some models are improving and there's still time left for it develop.

Is there any interesting weather instore for us in the coming days?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Once again there are changes in FI from yesterday, which isn't exactly a novel phenomenon.

Up to +192 hours there's good agreement for the moment though, with troughing backing east, pressure still too high over Europe for my liking and the Aleutian ridge moving into the Arctic http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120106/06/186/npsh500.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120106/00/npsh500.192.png

Up to 240 hours out, cool/cold zonality looks like it might make a return, with the Arctic high becoming more dominant and the PV being shunted into the area to our northwest http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120106/06/240/npsh500.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120106/00/npsh500.240.png

The control run has a particularly extreme looking form of this rather akin to early January 1993 (or last December, for example) http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-240.png?6

The ensemble mean supports this too http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-240.png?6

The ensembles for central Scotland http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=6&lat=55.991902834008094&lon=-4.150943396226413&runpara=0 (netweather hasn't updated yet).

Cool to cold, with very few mild runs, but most likely from the north or northwest rather than the east.

There are still ways to get to a more prolonged and severe cold spell from there though e.g. http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-14-1-264.png?6

I'd suggest that the most likely way to get there would come from jet amplification causing the Azores high to ridge north and link with the Arctic high rather than the Arctic high simply shunting everything southwards. For that you need amplification in the jet, and there are tentative signs of this, but really at this stage all I can conclude is a) settled and reasonably mild next week and probably turning colder and more unsettled after that.

[lorenzo]

Looking quite settled for the weekend, it is interesting watching the models handle on the pattern change and how the runs being delivered contain just about nearly every solution available, hence my mention of the CPC outlook having at present very low confidence.

Matt mentions in his latest tweet that the ECM extended forecast hints at a more blocked outlook, this at the moment is for me the key evolution as the models continue the Azores Ridge / localised PV set up, which in turn keeps that Jet firing away at us.

The NH blocking chart here shows the much mentioned Aleutian high and the resulting amplification changes are the ones being toyed with in the overall pattern.

The Jet out to FI runs continues the flatter zonal approach, you can see the battering over the last month on the other graphic below.

Teleconnections are beginning to show up some subtle changes, whether these continue to trend negative or hover around neutral, time will tell..

[A Winter's Tale]

So we're now at the 6th of January. Last month was quite decent for some, so let's have a look at what the models are showing for a good part of January for Scotland - hopefully some snow for us all:

Here we have no -5C uppers, but quite a long lasting Nwly wind so this may perhaps bring some snow to the Scottish Mountains. Quite good if you like skiing.

We then have a brief polar maritime incursion, with some -5C uppers around. Snow for some lower levels in the Highlands, maybe some brief sleet further south.

Well into FI, we have a pretty decent NWly which would bring some snow to some places. But, of course it's likely that it won't happen.

Another decent NWly.

The run finishes with a NEly.

The period between 192 hours and 384 hours is interesting as there always seems to be -5C uppers near to Scotland and it does threaten to submerge the country with -5C uppers for a good period. Now I'm no expert, but it does suggest to me that there seems to be a colder outlook, perhaps with the jet moving south. Surely this should be quite good news?

[edo]

ECM extended has been fairly good so far this season from following matts comments throughout winter but as Matt says only hints.... but I will take hints as thats all there ever is in early days pattern change....IMBY cold zonality not really hitting the spot....January 93 floods after the mega snow nearly wiped Perth off the map last time which did not bother me as I was in Dundee I think things are building nicely towards a second half winter as many respected forecasters were predicting so I am quite relaxed with how winter is panning out.....to be honest anything majorly snowy is a bonus as after the last couple of years of being spoiled the law of averages led me to be unexpectant....however the weather does not care for the law of averages.....

AS LS says pressure has just been incredibly high over Europe and still showing little signs of movement

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-240.png?6 That is certainly the most extreme chart I have seen this winter.....u never know

Pressure remaining fairly high in the foreseeable but still little in the way of cold overnight temps or frosts in this area with temps at 6 degrees tomorrow midnight so quite a boring spell of weather but welcome for many who have suffered damage to their properties

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=ukmo&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD

[edo]

AWT or anyone with time and knowledge to spare..... how do you identify a pattern of weather as a brief polar maritime incursion? google does not seem to provide any decent links to an understanable explanation.

[Hairy Celt]

Sunny, icy start then sleety showers, now grey & mild and wet. Went out with five layers on, came back with two middle layers discarded. Hmm, normal mid-winter weather then, after last year's and the year before's attempts to fool us that old-fashioned winters were back. The demise of the Xmas decorations isn't helping my mood either, I was enjoying my little sessions of playing with the different flashing sequences... :smiliz57:

[Norrance]

AWT or anyone with time and knowledge to spare..... how do you identify a pattern of weather as a brief polar maritime incursion? google does not seem to provide any decent links to an understanable explanation.

Try TWS 's guides to Winter patterns. PM air will be covered in one of the zonal entries. Link below. Edited January 6, 2012 by Norrance

[edo]

Try TWS 's guides to Winter patterns. PM air will be covered in one of the zonal entries. Link below. http://forum.netweat...-winter-setups/

great cheers..... I have used the guide to models etc which have been very helpful

[lorenzo]

AWT or anyone with time and knowledge to spare..... how do you identify a pattern of weather as a brief polar maritime incursion? google does not seem to provide any decent links to an understanable explanation.

Edodfc, here are a couple of links from the Learning area that are useful at answering your question.

Airmasses

Winter Set Ups

[edo]

Edodfc, here are a couple of links from the Learning area that are useful at answering your question.

Airmasses

Winter Set Ups

perfect many thanks that was a particularly straightforward read on airmasses....I should have realised the simplest answers would be within this site...

on another note and O/T except its fimed in snowy conditions what do people make of these "UFO's"?

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/292456-ufo-video-sparks-online-debate/

[lorenzo]

That looks like a trick of the light between the camera, the windscreen and the approaching car headlights.

[Northern Strath]

Overcast and calm here today and sat at 4.8C for most of the day, even milder now at 6.8C

That looks like a trick of the light between the camera, the windscreen and the approaching car headlights.

Aye i'm fairly open minded with these sorts of things but I don't think it's coincidental that the 'ufo's' appear at the time the car passes

Overcast and calm here today and sat at 4.8C for most of the day, even milder now at 6.8C

That looks like a trick of the light between the camera, the windscreen and the approaching car headlights.

Aye i'm fairly open minded with these sorts of things but I don't think it's coincidental that the 'ufo's' appear at the time the car passes

[Northern Strath]

Overcast and calm here today and sat at 4.8C for most of the day, even milder now at 6.8C

That looks like a trick of the light between the camera, the windscreen and the approaching car headlights.

Aye i'm fairly open minded with these sorts of things but I don't think it's coincidental that the 'ufo's' appear at the time the car passes

[A Winter's Tale]

Earlier today I went for a drive to Fife to observe the damage of my relatives home who have been on holiday. The drive was full of horrible low cloud and rain at 6C. Strangely enough there weren't many trees down.

Thankfully, the damage wasn't bad, just a few slates from the roof.

[LomondSnowstorm]

And once again the mid atlantic ridge returns to our screens http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120106/12/ecm500.240.png

Things are looking less certain than ever tonight, so I'm not even going to bother picking my way through it tonight. Maybe this adds more validity JH's 'compare 12Zs to 12Zs' idea as the charts look more similar to yesterday's than this morning's runs. I'll give a full update tomorrow evening.

[lorenzo]

And once again the mid atlantic ridge returns to our screens http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

Things are looking less certain than ever tonight, so I'm not even going to bother picking my way through it tonight. Maybe this adds more validity JH's 'compare 12Zs to 12Zs' idea as the charts look more similar to yesterday's than this morning's runs. I'll give a full update tomorrow evening.

Today has been a rollercoaster from 00z to 12z, I cannot even begin to imagine what solution the 18z will deliver. Everything on the table. That Atlantic cut off low is worth a watch though, the only thing in the forseeable NWP to de-rail the zonal train !

[Norrance]

Today has been a rollercoaster from 00z to 12z, I cannot even begin to imagine what solution the 18z will deliver. Everything on the table. That Atlantic cut off low is worth a watch though, the only thing in the forseeable NWP to de-rail the zonal train !

Hi Lorenzo, I noticed that but don't have a clue what could happen from there. Any thoughts?

[Cheggers]

Evening all. I see the models are being their normal self .

Just drove up the A9 and lots of snow from Dunkeld to Aviemore, and patches across the Dava. Lots of drizzle, and temps ranging from 2c to 8c here in Forres.