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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    9.7C was the yearly CET, 0.05 below the 1971-2000 average and the second coolest yearly CET since 1996.

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    Interesting to note that if we had a year where each day we equaled the record high for the daily mean, we'd have an annual CET of 16.5C, similar to Naples, Italy. Conversely, if we equaled the reco

    Here are the years and the number of days that a daily sub-zero CET mean was recorded 2013: 10 thus far 2012: 13 2011: 2 2010: 32 2009: 14 2008: 2 2007: 5 2006: 4 2005: 2 2004: 0 2003: 7

    I thought some might find this interesting. It's a comparison of the daily mean cold and warm records over time. A clear switch from record cold dominant to record warm dominant during the early 190

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    IMO Its actually been worse than the official temps would indicate.

    All the figures that are given out have been adjusted. Basically you are not seeing the real data. The CET figures are adjusted to take into account the effects of the Urban Heat Island (UHI effect). The rate of adjustment is contentious because a body or someone must make a decission about how much to change the data.

    I personally think that the adjustment is not enough to allow for an accurate comparison of the data.

    - If the warming we have seen in the last few decades is entirely due to the Urban Heat Island effect, then rural stations would not also be showing warming. However, they are. Why do you think the adjustment is not enough? (I'm not aware of any adjustment at all, for the record)

    Another point to make is that instrumentation has changed over the years. Further, what data are we comparing today's CET's with? Is it the rolling thirty year average? If so then why are we comparing the data with the coldest set of data from the 1960's?

    All this effects the rate of cooling which we are officially fed by the Government....or the Met Office...its the same thing.

    - I like to compare the CET with a consistent average rather than a rolling average, but I admit that using 1960-1990 is quite arbitrary. Note that that period isn't the coldest set of data, however. Almost the entirety of the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries were colder in the UK, as well as the first thirty years of the 20th century (the Little Ice Age formed only a small part of these centuries). Furthermore, comparison with an average does not change how much we are warming or cooling by over X years, it just emphasises a certain timeframe.

    And yes, instrumentation has changed over the years but there's nothing to suggest this would make the temperature record any less accurate. I think you're clutching at straws here to suit your agenda.

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    Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

    - If the warming we have seen in the last few decades is entirely due to the Urban Heat Island effect, then rural stations would not also be showing warming. However, they are. Why do you think the adjustment is not enough? (I'm not aware of any adjustment at all, for the record)

    Firstly the last decade and a half has not shown that warming has continued. The Meto has stated that there has been no significant warming over recent years globally, its at a standstill. http://www.publicser...still-continues

    Further, any warming that has been noted at urban sites has been adjusted and dont forget that downwind of a large urban area will also demonstrate warming as the enhanced temperatures from the upwind urban area will have a signal, just as a large area of water does have an effect. The gratest warming UHI signal has been nocturnally. This shows up clearly in the official statistics over the last thirty years. Check it out, its there in the official data.

    If the adjustment was correct then it wouldnt be noticable, but it is.

    Harve, on 04 January 2013 - 00:01 , said:

    "- I like to compare the CET with a consistent average rather than a rolling average, but I admit that using 1960-1990 is quite arbitrary. Note that that period isn't the coldest set of data, however. Almost the entirety of the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries were colder in the UK, as well as the first thirty years of the 20th century (the Little Ice Age formed only a small part of these centuries). Furthermore, comparison with an average does not change how much we are warming or cooling by over X years, it just emphasises a certain timeframe.

    And yes, instrumentation has changed over the years but there's nothing to suggest this would make the temperature record any less accurate. I think you're clutching at straws here to suit your agenda."

    I dont know what agenda you think I have, I dont have an agenda, I am not paid by the UK government who is the major beneficiary of the new climate taxes. However, anyone who benefits from the government payroll cannot claim the same. What do you think?

    I am glad you agree with me that using differing sets of rolling averages is not an ideal way to compare data. Its not an ideal situation is it? So who decides which data sets to commpare to? Further, does this not change the trend signal?

    Edited by Village
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    Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

    9.7C was the yearly CET, 0.05 below the 1971-2000 average and the second coolest yearly CET since 1996.

    Yeah, it does clearly show now that 2012 was another year showing cooler than average temperatures.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    Clearly the problem with CET is that it is regional, it only shows rural areas in the central portion were below average, and this may have been further influenced by lower minima in the southeast. Here towards the west it certainly wasn't below average' this is where the issue is.

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    Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

    Nevertheless, I think there is an issue with official CET stats regarding the set of comparisson data used and how this changes perceptions .

    Why is it that the rolling averages used keeps altering? Its almost as if a decission is made to cherry pick so that a particular outcome can be demonstrated, why else make the change. Sometimes they use 1960/.90 rolling, others its the 1970/2000, but there is a case for using 1980/2010 last thirty year rolling average now!

    Clearly, if one uses a different temperature set as a comparission then this will change the outcome.

    This has been demonstrated with global temperatures where using a different set of thirty year rolling either shows a .5C rise in global temps, a much reduced .25C rise which is negligable or a zero degree change demonstrating no global warming whatsoever.

    So we need clarity on this issue.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    Nevertheless, I think there is an issue with official CET stats regarding the set of comparisson data used and how this changes perceptions .

    Why is it that the rolling averages used keeps altering? Its almost as if a decission is made to cherry pick so that a particular outcome can be demonstrated, why else make the change. Sometimes they use 1960/.90 rolling, others its the 1970/2000, but there is a case for using 1980/2010 last thirty year rolling average now!

    Clearly, if one uses a different temperature set as a comparission then this will change the outcome.

    This has been demonstrated with global temperatures where using a different set of thirty year rolling either shows a .5C rise in global temps, a much reduced .25C rise which is negligable or a zero degree change demonstrating no global warming whatsoever.

    So we need clarity on this issue.

    I suppose this could easily be resolved by quoting the difference from each set of 30 year averages rather than just one. Slightly more unwieldy perhaps but it would at least be obvious at a glance whether or not the climate was warming or cooling relative to just the most recent 30 years or over a longer period.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Here are the years and the number of days that a daily sub-zero CET mean was recorded

    2013: 10 thus far

    2012: 13

    2011: 2

    2010: 32

    2009: 14

    2008: 2

    2007: 5

    2006: 4

    2005: 2

    2004: 0

    2003: 7

    2002: 3

    2001: 8

    2000: 3

    1999: 2

    1998: 1

    1997: 7

    1996: 14

    1995: 8

    1994: 6

    1993: 3

    1992: 12

    1991: 16

    1990: 0

    1989: 1

    1988: 1

    1987: 17

    1986: 24

    1985: 28

    1984: 4

    1983: 6

    1982: 10

    1981: 19

    1980: 6

    1979: 23

    1978: 17

    1977: 6

    1976: 8

    1975: 0

    1974: 2

    1973: 3

    1972: 3

    1971: 8

    1970: 17

    1969: 13

    1968: 11

    1967: 6

    1966: 8

    1965: 12

    1964: 10

    1963: 48

    1962: 24

    1961: 13

    1960: 3

    1959: 7

    1958: 9

    1957: 2

    1956: 23

    1955: 22

    1954: 17

    1953: 4

    1952: 13

    1951: 5

    1950: 17

    1949: 1

    1948: 5

    1947: 44

    1946: 18

    1945: 11

    1944: 5

    1943: 3

    1942: 27

    1941: 16

    1940: 33

    1939: 6

    1938: 5

    1937: 4

    1936: 12

    1935: 9

    1934: 1

    1933: 8

    1932: 2

    1931: 11

    1930: 2

    1929: 24

    1928: 5

    1927: 11

    1926: 6

    1925: 14

    1924: 4

    1923: 5

    1922: 5

    1921: 1

    1920: 5

    1919: 12

    1918: 8

    1917: 31

    1916: 7

    1915: 4

    1914: 3 

    1913: 1

    1912: 8

    1911: 2

    1910: 5

    1909: 13

    1908: 10

    1907: 10

    1906: 6

    1905: 5

    1904: 12

    1903: 10

    1902: 16

    1901: 16

    1900: 9

    1899: 17

    1898: 0

    1897: 8

    1896: 4

    1895: 31

    1894: 9

    1893: 9

    1892: 28

    1891: 21

    1890: 32

    1889: 14

    1888: 14

    1887: 21

    1886: 26

    1885: 7

    1884: 3

    1883: 5

    1882: 4

    1881: 25

    1880: 16

    1879: 42

    1878: 16

    1877: 1

    1876: 7

    1875: 5

    1874: 26

    1873: 9

    1872: 0

    1871: 17

    1870: 23

    1869: 9

    1868: 4

    1867: 26

    1866: 4

    1865: 17

    1864: 21

    1863: 0

    1862: 13

    1861: 19

    1860: 21

    1859: 11

    1858: 14

    1857: 8

    1856: 14

    1855: 35

    1854: 7

    1853: 26

    1852: 2

    1851: 2

    1850: 15

    1849: 11

    1848: 12

    1847: 13

    1846: 15

    1845: 23

    1844: 25

    1843: 7

    1842: 12

    1841: 26

    1840: 23

    1839: 16

    1838: 35

    1837: 10

    1836: 12

    1835: 15

    1834: 0

    1833: 9

    1832: 5

    1831: 13

    1830: 25

    1829: 26

    1828: 3

    1827: 25

    1826: 13

    1825: 4

    1824: 5

    1823: 22

    1822: 8

    1821: 6

    1820: 30

    1819: 19

    1818: 13

    1817: 12

    1816: 20

    1815: 28

    1814: 53

    1813: 20

    1812: 16

    1811: 21

    1810: 17

    1809: 16

    1808: 22

    1807: 21

    1806: 6

    1805: 12

    1804: 16

    1803: 26

    1802: 15

    1801: 16

    1800: 16

    1799: 34

    1798: 19

    1797: 7

    1796: 23

    1795: 42

    1794: 8

    1793: 3

    1792: 16

    1791: 10

    1790: 2

    1789: 13

    1788: 20

    1787: 8

    1786: 24

    1785: 25

    1784: 41

    1783: 17

    1782: 15

    1781: 4

    1780: 33

    1779: 10

    1778: 7

    1777: 12

    1776: 32

    1775: 3

    1774: 25

    1773: 20

    1772: 24

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Look like there has been as many in the last five years as the previous fifteen, WH!

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    1807 to 1820 .....respect

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Hi Stu_London

    What's the running annual CET now after the two very chilly March days?

    13th March 2012 - 12th March 2013: 9.41C

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    It was the second half of last March that was really warm. Anyone have any idea what CET we would need for the remainder of March for the Annual CET to be below 9C? Is that even realistic?

    Edited by 22nov10blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    13th March 2012 - 12th March 2013: 9.41C

    Thanks

    It was the second half of last March that was really warm. Anyone have any idea what CET we would need for the remainder of March for the Annual CET to be below 9C? Is that even realistic?

    It is still possible if we get a really cold March and April

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Consecutive months that were below the 1961-90 average since January 2001

    Feb 2013: 3.2

    Jan 2013: 3.5

    ----------

    Oct 2012: 9.7

    Sep 2012: 13.0

    ----------

    Jul 2012: 15.5

    Jun 2012: 13.5

    ----------

    Aug 2011: 15.4

    July 2011: 15.2

    June 2011: 13.8

    -----------

    Jan 2011: 3.7

    Dec 2010: -0.7

    Nov 2010: 5.2

    Oct 2010: 10.3

    ------------

    Feb 2010: 2.8

    Jan 2010: 1.4

    Dec 2009: 3.1

    -----------

    Jan 2009: 3.0

    Dec 2008: 3.5

    ----------

    Oct 2008: 9.7

    Sep 2008: 13.5

    ----------

    Aug 2007: 15.4

    July 2007: 15.2

    ----------

    Mar 2006: 4.9

    Feb 2006: 3.7

    ----------

    Dec 2005: 4.4

    Nov 2005: 6.2

    ----------

    Apr 2001: 7.7

    Mar 2001: 5.2

    Notable how consecutive below average months have increased recently and against the 1961-90 averages at that. If the trend continues than we must expect to return cool or cold seasons more often than recently. We already had the coldest winter since 1978-79 and the joint coolest summer since 1985. Feel we are due for a notably cool/cold spring. The last one was 1996.

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    Yes but the list above are consecutive months below the 1961-90 average. Both March and May 2012 were above the average.

    Ah right, I wasn't reading properly - I did wonder why the months were divided as they are.

    The rolling annual CET should surely be plummeting as we take record warm CET days out of the equation and replace it with near-record cold.

    Edited by Harve
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yep, quite the contrast from last year thats for sure!

    Going to be a very below average March to go along with the below average start. Too early to tell how this years annual CET will go, afterall the first 3 months of 2006 were a little below average overall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    It was the second half of last March that was really warm. Anyone have any idea what CET we would need for the remainder of March for the Annual CET to be below 9C? Is that even realistic?

    We need March to be 2.4C for the rolling annual CET to be sub 9C, probably just outside touching distance unless Hadley go mad with their end of month adjustments.

    Excellent chance of sub 9.1C though - still a bit to further to go before we beat 8.86C set near the end of 2010, which will have been the coldest since the late 1980s where we probably had some periods in the mid 8Cs.

    Beyond that you need to go back to the period 1st March 1962 to 28th February 1963, for a very little age rolling CET of 7.63C

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    We need March to be 2.4C for the rolling annual CET to be sub 9C, probably just outside touching distance unless Hadley go mad with their end of month adjustments.

    Excellent chance of sub 9.1C though - still a bit to further to go before we beat 8.86C set near the end of 2010, which will have been the coldest since the late 1980s where we probably had some periods in the mid 8Cs.

    Beyond that you need to go back to the period 1st March 1962 to 28th February 1963, for a very little age rolling CET of 7.63C

    Thanks for the info. The cold March and the exceptional Winter that followed were situated perfectly together to bring that really low rolling value of just 7.63C. That is very chilly.

    Edited by 22nov10blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

    Thanks for the info. The cold March and the exceptional Winter that followed were situated perfectly together to bring that really low rolling value of just 7.63C. That is very chilly.

    1879 managed a yearly CET of 7.42*C.

    Still it looks highly likely now that we will record the coldest March since the 1960s - notably cold Marches have not occurred at all since 1969/1970. The coldest since then was 1987 (4.1) and 2nd coldest was 1996 (4.5). Even these although cold were by no means outstanding.

    I do not like to get carried away before a notably cold month reaches its end - all we need is cloudy nights next week to prevent any severe frosts and a much warmer last three days and the final CET may not be as cold as looks possible in the current output.

    It certainly looks as though the rolling 12 month's CET will dip below 9.1 by this month's end - but sub 9*C looks very unlikely.

    So where do we go from here - if the rest of the year was to mirror 2006 (not saying that this is likely), then the upper limit for 2013's annual CET would be around 10.55*C. Having said that, given how the first three months of 2013 have been, there certainly is a good chance of another sub 10*C CET year, and a decent chance that this year's annual CET will be below last year's 9.70*C.

    Certainly now as we are now up against a coolish April last year, there is little chance of any more falls in the rolling 12 month CET.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    1879 managed a yearly CET of 7.42*C.

    Still it looks highly likely now that we will record the coldest March since the 1960s - notably cold Marches have not occurred at all since 1969/1970. The coldest since then was 1987 (4.1) and 2nd coldest was 1996 (4.5). Even these although cold were by no means outstanding.

    I do not like to get carried away before a notably cold month reaches its end - all we need is cloudy nights next week to prevent any severe frosts and a much warmer last three days and the final CET may not be as cold as looks possible in the current output.

    It certainly looks as though the rolling 12 month's CET will dip below 9.1 by this month's end - but sub 9*C looks very unlikely.

    So where do we go from here - if the rest of the year was to mirror 2006 (not saying that this is likely), then the upper limit for 2013's annual CET would be around 10.55*C. Having said that, given how the first three months of 2013 have been, there certainly is a good chance of another sub 10*C CET year, and a decent chance that this year's annual CET will be below last year's 9.70*C.

    Certainly now as we are now up against a coolish April last year, there is little chance of any more falls in the rolling 12 month CET.

    Although you could think of it this way. April and May together would have to average less than just a -0.2C anomaly this year to see another dip in the rolling value. We'll have to wait and see for that one.

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