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SP1986

Annual CET

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Half way through the year, time for a quick update -

 

2014 (9.539°C) became the second warmest first half of a year behind 2007 (9.718°)

This is as calculated by daily values though as 1846 (9.531°C) just sneaks into 2nd with monthly values due to rounding discrepancies, as pointed out in the June CET thread.

 

The year moved into second place on 10th June a couple of days after expected because downward corrections in the HadCET from provisional to final values were low for the first few months of the year but were back up to 0.28 and 0.35°C for May and June which can make a significant difference to predictions.

As suggested, the rolling 365 day period became the third warmest in the middle of June, but the downward corrections prevented it becoming only the third period with a CET of over 11°C - having reached 10.967 it remains a whisker away.

 

Anyway, last 10 year average would give a final CET of 10.65 (daily), 10.62 (monthly) in 5th place.

1981-2010 average gives 10.59 (daily), 10.56 (monthly) in 7th.

Both averages will still see this year as briefly the warmest year on record for about a week at the end of this month.

 

Averages don't perhaps tell the whole story though, as they can be skewed by outlying values - in this case maybe by cooler values as recent years have been generally uniformly warm. As the table below shows, if it was to follow recent years, 7 out of 20 would result in 2014 being warmest on record,

1994	10.88	11995	10.96	11996	10.36	191997	10.95	11998	10.49	121999	10.85	12000	10.59	72001	10.74	22002	10.72	22003	10.79	22004	10.76	22005	10.76	22006	11.44	12007	10.39	172008	10.28	222009	10.62	52010	9.84	522011	10.91	12012	10.29	222013	10.92	1

Interestingly only 2010 would give a sub-10C value, the same chance as above 11°C with 2006 - there were a couple of other 11 degree years before the corrections.

But the slightly lower values of the last couple of months have taken their toll on the running anomaly with the projected target falling below 11°C around the 28th June.

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If the second half of 2014 equals all of the warmest months on record than 2014 will finish on an extremely mild 12.02C smashing 2006s already very mild 10.82C by a whopping 1.20C!

On the other hand if the second half of 2014 equals all of the coldest months on record than 2014 will finish on a very cold 8.38C and ironically the coldest year since 1892 which finished on a very cold 8.17C!

 

Unfortunately record warmth is favored way more than anything remotely cold since the last very cold second half of the year was in 1993 and since than we have had very warm second halves in 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2013.

Edited by Craig Evans

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Just a quick note that as of today, using the estimated data this year is now the warmest on record to this point.

 

Even assuming a sizeable downward correction it should be warmest by later this week, it would take some temperatures like 2007 to prevent this which is not going to happen.

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That is quite something to be the warmest on record so far, so soon after the previous warmest year in 2006 and the second warmest in 2011. Theres has been a complete absence of any prolonged below average temperatures for the past 7 and a half months.

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Based on the met offices 61 to 90 average which they use on the CET page the anomaly only needs to be higher than 0.86 for the remainder of the year to give us the warmest year on record

 

To get the coldest year on record it would need to be lower than -7.99 for the remainder of the year

 

Averages to June

  • Average CET to June is 9.52
  • Normal CET to June: 7.74

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After a July downward correction of 0.29 degrees, this year became the warmest on 21/07 a day later than from the estimated data, but the warmth was still enough to bring the year back on track for a potential 11 degree annual CET if continuing at the current level - with about 11.04°C at around 67/242 in daily rankings.
 
Things are getting interesting now with the 1981-2010 averages seeing this year remain in first until 28/08, vying with 1990 in early September before another month in first from 16/09 to 16/10. After this it stays in the top 4 for the rest of the year, managing one more day in first on 06/11, a spell in second over Christmas before finishing in 3rd at about 10.65°C (converted to monthly averages).
 
The last ten year average keeps 2014 in first until 27/08 and then throughout the Autumn from 09/09 to 01/12 before finishing 2nd just pipping 2011 at about 10.71°C.
 
A cool or average early August as looks potentially on the cards at the moment won't make too much difference to this, slipping to 2nd by the end of this month before returning to first in the 2nd half of September.
 
The 7 months from the start of the year have been warm at 1.14°C above the average of the previous 30 years, but this is only the largest anomaly since 1999 which was 1.16°C above the previous 30 years, and only the 23rd largest in total.
1990 was 1.56°C above the then 30 year average whilst 1846 was the highest at 1.79°C - 0.65 higher than this year - a year starting as extreme as this now would almost certainly end up over 11 degrees.

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Highest Jan - Aug CET means :

 

11.4 degC     1990

11.3               1846

11.2               1733, 1779, 1868, 1995, 2003, 2014

 

Highest Jan - Sep CET means :

 

11.7 degC     1779

11.6               1868, 1990, 1999, 2014 (so far to 12th)

 

Highest Jan - Oct CET means :

 

11.6 degC      1779, 1990, 1995

11.5                1921, 1949, 1989, 1999, 2005, 2006

 

Highest Jan - Nov CET means :

 

11.3 degC      1995

11.2                1990, 2006

 

Highest Jan - Dec CET means :

 

10.8 degC       2006

10.7                 2011

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As things stand currently the CET needs to be 1.12c above average for the rest of the year for us to get the warmest CET year on record

 

The coldest CET will not beaten considering we need the anomaly to be below -14.17 for the remainder of the year

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As things stand currently the CET needs to be 1.12c above average for the rest of the year for us to get the warmest CET year on record

 

The coldest CET will not beaten considering we need the anomaly to be below -14.17 for the remainder of the year

 

Only three months to go, it's going to be pretty close.

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Only three months to go, it's going to be pretty close.

 

Only two months now and it is even closer with only 0.60 required as of 05/11

 

Been a while since the last update so a quick recap.

2014 became the warmest year on record from 21st July and held this position for a month, but the forecast cool early August was persistent and knocked the average back more than expected so this year ended August in 4th place.

The warmth of September and October struggled to overcome similar warmth in rival years, but 2014 was once again the warmest from 1st October for six days, and then from October 24th onwards to now.

 

Using the finalised data to Oct 31st, average temperatures from the last ten years or from 1981-2010 will both see 2014 remain the warmest until December 10th when 2006 finally takes over, and then go on to finish second with around 10.75°C

 

An above 10°C finish must be just about assured - even being like 2010 would result in 10.15°C in 26th place - every other year from the past 20 would end up being in the top 9 warmest from the current position.

 

10 years out of the last 20 would leave 2014 as the warmest on record ~ 50/50 chance.

 

As for an 11°C CET, there remains a possibility of this - the temperature daily rankings at the end of October was about 10.98°C if continued til the end of the year and two years of the last 20 would end above eleven - 2011 @ 11.08°C and 1994 @ 11.15°C

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A significant moment on the Met Office Hadley CET page, if this month's estimated temperatures are correct, we can be below the 1961-90 average for the remainder of the year and still achieve the warmest year on record -

The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than -0.06 for the remainder of the year.

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A significant moment on the Met Office Hadley CET page, if this month's estimated temperatures are correct, we can be below the 1961-90 average for the remainder of the year and still achieve the warmest year on record -

The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than -0.06 for the remainder of the year.

 

That record is seriously under threat now.

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Anything like an average December is now going to beat the Annual CET record from here. That would give us 10.88 degC. However anything less than 4.2 degC as a December average will fall short of the record. To achieve 11.00 degC, December needs to average 6.1.

 

All of these outcomes are still possible. 

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Now we have the figure in for November we would need the following:

 

A 5.8C December CET would give an annual CET of 11.00C.

 

A 3.8C December CET for the warmest year on record (10.83C). 

 

It should be noted that the current top two CET years also had the top two warmest Autumns and this year came third on the list. Possibly three for three?

Edited by reef
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Now we have the figure in for November its would need the following:

 

A 5.8C December CET would give an annual CET of 11.00C.

 

A 3.8C December CET for the warmest year on record (10.83C). 

 

It should be noted that the current top two CET years also had the top two warmest Autumns and this year came third on the list. Possibly three for three?

 

I assume you're weighting the months based on how many days are in each? I can't seem to get the same values as you on my spreadsheet though...

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I assume you're weighting the months based on how many days are in each? I can't seem to get the same values as you on my spreadsheet though...

Yes, its the average of all of the days so far with equal weighting divided by 334.

 

Figures from here:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Total so far is 3836.4, divided by 334 gives a mean of 11.48623C to 30th November.

 

If each remaining day is 3.8C exactly then the total is 3954.2 giving a mean over 365 days of 10.83342C.

 

With the 5.8C exactly for December you get a total of 4016.2 and a mean of 11.00329C.

Edited by reef
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Yes, its the average of all of the days so far with equal weighting divided by 334.

 

Figures from here:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Total so far is 3836.4, divided by 334 gives a mean of 11.48623C to 30th November.

 

If each remaining day is 3.8C exactly then the total is 3954.2 giving a mean over 365 days of 10.83342C.

 

With the 5.8C exactly for December you get a total of 4016.2 and a mean of 11.00329C.

 

I know the problem now, cheers. I was using the monthly averages, as provided by the MO, rather than the daily values. I notice that 5.2 would give us 11.0C if rounded up to the nearest 10th.

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As long as December avoids a subzero CET we'll have the warmest CET year on record as of the 29th it needed to be high than -0.48. The question now is will the warmth continue into 2015....

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Below in the cumulative anomaly for each month for the top 10 CET years. So Jan is just the January CET anomaly, Feb is the average of the January and February anomaly, Mar is the average anomaly of January, February and March, and so on.

It also has some possible outcomes for this year depending on the December CET.

 

KvK1QsP.jpg

 

 

Interesting that 2006 was below average up to April.

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As long as December avoids a subzero CET we'll have the warmest CET year on record as of the 29th it needed to be high than -0.48. The question now is will the warmth continue into 2015....

I think that means the anomaly needed to be 0.48 below average, not that the absolute temperature had to be -0.48C :)

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Yes, its the average of all of the days so far with equal weighting divided by 334.

 

Figures from here:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Total so far is 3836.4, divided by 334 gives a mean of 11.48623C to 30th November.

 

If each remaining day is 3.8C exactly then the total is 3954.2 giving a mean over 365 days of 10.83342C.

 

With the 5.8C exactly for December you get a total of 4016.2 and a mean of 11.00329C.

 

Of course this is the annual daily average which in 2006 was not 10.82 but 10.86 ..... 3.8 will leave this year in second place on 10.81 when using the monthly CET.

A December daily average of 3.92°C is required for the warmest year by monthly CET though it is a quirk of the calculation that technically 2006 would still have been warmer by annual daily average, requiring 4.15°C to be surpassed

 

Last 10 year average gives 10.86°C

1981-2010 gives 10.88°C

 

23 out of the last 30 Decembers would see the warmest year on record - 76.7% chance.

5 would be 2nd warmest year, 1995 would be 3rd and 2010 would be 17th on 10.43°C - even the December of 1981 would be in the top 10 in 9th.

 

6 out of 30 would be above 11°C - 20% chance.

 

Equalling the coldest and warmest December days gives a theoretical range of 9.98 to 11.46.

 

As of 16th November this year is back on target for an 11 degree finish, the latest date this has been achieved - using the daily ranking of temperatures the 2014 trajectory is currently equivalent to 68th of 242 years - continuing at this level gives a final value daily average of 11.04°C resulting in a final CET from monthly values of 11.01°C.

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Now the final data for November is in as long as December avoids finishing -0.72 below the anomaly we'll get the warmest CET year on record

 

The average CET to November this year is 11.45

 

The normal CET to November is 9.91

 

So we are currently 1.54 above average

Edited by Summer Sun

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It's going to happen isn't it? We're going to have the warmest year on record without it being that warm at all.

 

Terrible.

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It's going to happen isn't it? We're going to have the warmest year on record without it being that warm at all.

 

Terrible.

Imagine a year like this but with some real warmth in the next few years, nothing to say we can't push towards 12c.

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It's going to happen isn't it? We're going to have the warmest year on record without it being that warm at all.

 

Terrible.

For me the warmth has been notable but admittedly more so in its consistency than its extremes (although we have broken a huge number of daily CET records this year). Breaking warmth records has become the new norm in our lifetime so it no longer seems particularly remarkable. If 11 months had been below average then I'm sure this thread would be much, much longer.
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