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People should stop being picky - you cannot dictate when the cold will come. If it comes in February after a very mild January, then it's better than nothing - December 2010 was followed by an average January and a very mild February and people were completely happy with that.

Some people on here should know better and to be honest the quality of posting on this part of the forum is substandard to say the least, I think I will have to plonk a few people on ignore because it's really irritating.

That's my moan for the day!

Edited by Aaron
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Torrential rain in Nottingham at the moment, just what we need!!! Just be nice to have some harsh frosts and a few dry days. The way the weather has been so far this winter it makes you realise how fortunate we have been over the last couple of Winters and for a change, my location fared relatively well. I really hope the second half of Jan, Feb and early March can deliver the goods. I don't mind a bit of rain but this year really has been quite remarkable baring in mind we were still in a drougt in the first quarter!

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I'm joining your gang PH, I havent seen a flake since Dec 2010 either. Last winter was dire. I saw a few cars travelling around with an inch or two a few weeks ago but I guess they were coming from North Dartmoor not south where I am.

However, Dec 2010 was amazing here, snow and ice for 3 whole weeks. This winter has been so frustrating so far but nice to read about the possible SSW. Even if it doesn't come to anything, it's a relief to see a bit of excitement developing on the MOD thread. Us Devonians really don't need any more rain!!!

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While the seasonal depressives among our number continue to call winter over I can't help but be reminded of one of the best winter scenarios that I have lived through namely the winter of 1977/78. December 77 was not unlike the current one with a chilly start but with a high just too far east to deliver the real goods before it was blasted away much like the one this december around the 14th and whilst the second half was not as wet as we have been this time round it was generally mild. The mild and dry theme continued into the first half of January ( is this ringing any bells here) before the second half became somewhat cooler and even cold at times ( not unlike the current Jan is forecast to do).

The fun and games really began in late January when the worst blizzard for 33 years hit Scotland with drifts up to twenty feet deep cutting off many highland areas. The low that brought thia blizzard moved away southeastwards setting up a trend for undercutting as high pressure developed over nw russia and Scaninavia before linking across to greenland. By the 8th February we were truly in the grip if winter with day time max below freezing and increasingly heavy snow showers/storms depositing deep snow in many eastern areas. the second week of Feb continued on this theme with more snow showers moving further inland.

As we we entered the third week of february low pressure approached the southwest and sent two sliders on successive nights of 15th and 16th across the west country bringing about 6 inches of snow each time to the southwest of england from Southampton westwards. The coup de gras was of course the great southwestern Blizzard of 78 which gave a metre of level snow on Exmoor and immense drifts up to thirty feet deep across many parts of the rural southwest from the New forest westwards. This was without doubt the winter event of my life and as an individual storm was worse in my corner of the southwest than any individual storm in 1963. My home village was completely cut off for 7 days and others up to 10 days

The point of all this is that even as late a the second week of feb you can still get a winter spell that most cold and snow lovers be more than happy with.

Sometimes patience is the key. It coud well be this time around as wellPosted Image

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Yep, I remember 1977/78 well.

After a run of several very mild (particularly 74/75) largely snowless winters, 77/78 was something of a relief. We also had some snow at the start of February that year, but I don't think it lasted all that long due to the strength of the sun being that much greater. It was of course followed by 78/79, which was another truly memorable one. The cold spell that started on the 28th December and which lasted into early january was quite exeptional. Snow cover on that one was somewhat patchy, but there were some truly remarkable cold nights with temperratures well below -10C. The winter of 78/79 started early in late november, which was followed by a cold dry December with a brief mild incursion around the Christmas period and a cold snowy January.

The following two winters were mild in comparison i.e 79/80 and 80/81. The next realy cold one was 81/82 which again started in early December. This was then followed by a run of really cold snowy winters, apart from 86 which was cold and dry The cold spell of January 87 was again exceptional but the rest of the winter was mild, and the following winters the same. 90/91 meant nothing to us here in Northern Ireland, and I don't remember any major snow event here that winter.

I think 93/94 was the next colder than average winter, with snow at the end of January and lasting well into February. Who knows. Maybe this winter will be the same ?

December 2010 was quite amazing, and a week with a foot of lying snow here was rare, though it did cause some disruption. Strangely, the whole thing stopped suddenly on Boxing Day, which I suppose was something of a relief since we couldn't get out of the house for a week.

We never experienced the severe snow of 2008/09 although it was very localised. The best winter in recent years really has been 2009/10, in my opinion.

Still, I always live in hope at this time of the year. It ain't over until the fat lady sings, as they say !

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P.S Some blame the run of cold winters in the 1980's on the Mt. St. Helens eruption. We did of course have the Icelandic volcano eruption in 2010, so maybe the exceptional weather in December 2010 was a result ?

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People who could not see a route to cold all the way to 384 after the GFS, well i can and its signs are starting to show up in the T200 ish range on the ECM, that takes us to 7th Jan ish, definately a little early but i was thinking around 20-23rd Jan, hopefully there can be a middle ground, although i would not care if it was feb as long as it delivered!!!.

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Just been through compiling my archives for Winter temps (for the coast of Essex) - goes back to 1979, it tells a pretty sad tale (in terms of cold). In the last 20 years I have only recorded 3 colder than average January's (1997, 2009 and 2010) for the term 'colder/milder' I allow more than 0.4c either side of the mean for the month. February is even worse just (1996 and 2010) although there have been a few occasions when a particular month has been 'marginally' colder. December is the only winter month that continues to see fairly regular colder than average conditions (1992,95,96,99, 2001,05,08,09 and the best of the bunch 2010) - coincidence or not?

With the regularity of mild Novembers and February's winter largely does seem largely consigned to 2 months.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Just been through compiling my archives for Winter temps (for the coast of Essex) - goes back to 1979, it tells a pretty sad tale (in terms of cold). In the last 20 years I have only recorded 3 colder than average January's (1997, 2009 and 2010) for the term 'colder/milder' I allow more than 0.4c either side of the mean for the month. February is even worse just (1996 and 2010) although there have been a few occasions when a particular month has been 'marginally' colder. December is the only winter month that continues to see fairly regular colder than average conditions (1992,93,96,97,99, 2001,05,08,09 and the best of the bunch 2010) - coincidence or not?

With the regularity of mild Novembers and February's months winter largely does seem largely consigned to 2 months.

Yeah that seems true, Jan and Feb changed the most, where as Dec not really changed in the môdern era, March huge change as well, used to be a winter month in 80's and earlier

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Just been through compiling my archives for Winter temps (for the coast of Essex) - goes back to 1979, it tells a pretty sad tale (in terms of cold). In the last 20 years I have only recorded 3 colder than average January's (1997, 2009 and 2010) for the term 'colder/milder' I allow more than 0.4c either side of the mean for the month. February is even worse just (1996 and 2010) although there have been a few occasions when a particular month has been 'marginally' colder. December is the only winter month that continues to see fairly regular colder than average conditions (1992,93,96,97,99, 2001,05,08,09 and the best of the bunch 2010) - coincidence or not?

With the regularity of mild Novembers and February's months winter largely does seem largely consigned to 2 months.

This is very relevant. I've been very interested in Bayesian study this last year and to be frank what I've learned as I try to apply it would kill the model thread dead. I think I could give a forecast many times more accurate in the same scale gp uses í ½í¸ just using basic, very basic data.
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Sorry had to make a slight adjustment to what I originally posted but it doesn't change the overall point, I know you can't base a forecast on what has happened last year or over several years (as there has been a slight theme since 2008 for some colder than average months) but based on just what I have been through this afternoon and collating the figures together the chances are that this month (December) has by far a greater chance of being a colder month anomaly wise than what we'll experience over the next 2 months. Add this factor and a look at the teleconnections, Strat and models just before the beginning of the next month and take a prod at the CET. It worked for me last winter (I don't think I was more than .3c out on any month from Nov-Feb) went for 4.3c for this month (Dec) so a little out but not too bad.

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Darren Bett was grinning like a Cheshire cat on the forecast he just gave which is benign and mild for this week, how can anyone who is interested in the weather not like snow, it baffles me, i can understand people not liking cold, these synoptics we have atm are so tedious but we shouldn;t be surprised really, its normal well except for in summer

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Darren Bett was grinning like a Cheshire cat on the forecast he just gave which is benign and mild for this week, how can anyone who is interested in the weather not like snow, it baffles me, i can understand people not liking cold, these synoptics we have atm are so tedious but we shouldn;t be surprised really, its normal well except for in summer

Lets hope he is laughing on the other side of his face come the second half of the month!!!

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I've for the most part managed to hold myself together throughout the dross of the last few weeks but if this next supposed port of call round about mid month and beyond fails to materialise well let's just say my patience will pushed fully to it's limits. I just don't really fancy the idea of pining any of my hopes on February again after last years farce for this neck of the woods.

Edited by Anonymous21
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im starting to fiel a tinge of excitement regarding the second half of winter and reading ian f's post on the mdt and the posts on stratos thread by chio and the likes, it's looking good. How ever i shall not count my chickens yet. Happy 2013 guys.

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My moan is how previous winters are being used as a reason for knowing what will happen all the way until March. Winters do change as the season goes on. No other year can inform us fully on what might happen over the next 3 months. There is a bit of pattern matching that can be done...but only a few days or weeks at a time and I feel that comparisons can only be made once a pattern evolves. As soon as there is a change is afoot, you have to wipe the slate clean and start again...find another year that it is like. But to do it for the next 3 months seems like a very difficult thing to do.

It's the not knowing that makes it exciting! It's winter 2013, not winter of (insert year of choice here).

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