The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think some people on here need to give themselves a good bang on the head. It's December 13! How can you possibly predict what the rest of winter will hold? How many times do long-range forecasts go wrong - pretty often, yet people are now saying the rest of winter is going to be mild! It's like self-harm on these theads sometimes. Bedsides, even IN zonal winters there is potential for short spells of cold, snowy weather.

What do people want - a three-month countrywide freeze? Chasing the impossible dream.

Three months! puh........some of us are after six!

[polarlow2]

Yes I was going to mention that. Agreement between them on a mild, zonal winter unfortunately. People keep saying that they're not reliable but when you have pretty much a full house of models going for this scenario it must have some credence.

Doesn't Ian F also go on to say that they don't place too much faith in these models, or something along those lines,,,?

Edited December 13, 2012 by polarlow2

[Snowangel-MK]

[alan snow]

maybe a stupid question ..but why no warm bumping into cold battleground scenarios ?????

[Snowy Easterlies]

i don't expect the atlantic to barrel through totally, what might happen is the usual NW/SE split courtesy of a pressure rise to the south, the usual plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzz

next weekend could be milder than the Queens jubilee celebrations, lets see if the mild downgrades, i doubt it

shocking hideous output this morning but not surprised i thought there would be a pressure rise from the south a week ago

Edited December 15, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Barmada Casten]

Well firstly I would like to introduce myself, some of you, but probably not all of you may remember me. I am Barmada Casten and I signed up to the community 9 years ago. I was a controversial poster to say the least, usually because despite being pro-snow, was always a realist and made sure everyone kept their feet on the ground regarding winters.

So were approaching that time again, mid December, when for a true 'proper' winter to kick in it needs to start acting now.

In the last 9 years me personally (living in the north-west) have experienced 1 'proper winter' (2009 -2010) of low temperatures and long lasting snow cover with a few regular, heavy, falls. And 1 winter prior to that (2008-2009) with a short lived blast of cold weather which produced a couple of moderate falls.

The rest of the winters have followed a similar trend - mild, wet weather. Guys that is what the British winter is nowadays. Long, lasting periods of cold weather with very low temperatures and regular heavy snowfalls are mythical in modern day Britain. It may be normal in Canada, parts of Scandinavia (namely Finland) and eastern Europe/Russia - but not here. Yes we may get short spells of cold weather, lasting 2 weeks max and there may be the odd intense heavy dumping of snowfall in some areas but this winter, will, in my opinion be a repeat of last winter. Mild and wet.

I am not anti-snow, far from it. No one was more sick than me last Christmas day when I woke up to a grey, warm, miserable rainy day. I remember one day of snowfall in February which was isolated to where I live, was moderate in amount and hung around for 5 days or so. And that was it- after the promise of the previous winter it was a real anti-climax. What some weather enthusiasts may call a 'wet-fart.'

This winter will not be a record breaker. There will be no long spell of sustained cold weather. There will not be any prolonged, regular, heavy snowfalls. There may be one or two brief heavy falls in some areas.

I understand charts but follow trends - and take my advice don't get hyped up or worked up over long-range forecast models - that seems to be the problem with a lot of members here. Amd I'm not trying to wind anybody up either.

Well I'm back.

Its good to be back.

I hope you welcome me back.

Thanks,

Barmada Casten.

[Gord]

It's always good to read realistic posts and keep your feet on the ground. But you can never say never. OK, statisitically, we're more likely not to get prolonged cold weather and events in the past are 1 in 50 years or 1 in a 100 years.

But the weather can't count! It could throw 3 severe winters at is in a row then not give us one for another 70! You can never say never, you can never make definite assumptions about a season ahead. You can make good estimates based on experience and saying a mild wet winter would be a good estimate for any winter we enter. There's nothing wrong with that as long as you know that years such as 1947, 1963, 1979, 1987 and 2010 have happened and will happen again. Like I said, the weather can't count, it doesn't do numerical years.

Having said that, I genuinely admire anyone who sticks their neck out and says it's going to be a mild/wet or cold/snowy winter because it's a very difficult thing to do. I know I couldn't do it!

[Carl46Wrexham]

yeah it annoys me too, esp when they have a big smile on there face when they say mild weather is on the way, but tv forecasts are for joe public and most hate cold and snow or not like it as much as us weather freaks

Me as well....always think to myself,especially when there is rain accompanying the mild weather that they grin about "oh well...at least when I'm getting drenched, and the fields around where I live are flooded mudflats....it's mild!" As if that's meant to be some consolation!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

That's always been one of my pet peeves with TV and media forecasts as well. I get a sense that forecasts these days (apart from the BBC Countryfile ones which are geared towards farmers) are geared mainly towards travellers, particularly business-related travel and people driving to and from work. For the majority of those people, the most important consideration is lack of travel disruption and thus a mild grey drizzly day would be preferable to a cold dry sunny one with risk of frost and ice. The problem with it is that the UK's population is pretty heterogeneous and even if 50 million people agree with a value judgement, that still leaves 15-20 million who don't.

The summer equivalent for me is those occasions when a cold grey wet spell leads into a warmer, brighter spell with thundery showers. I can usually be relied upon to relish such a change, while forecasts can equally be relied upon to say, "more of the same I'm afraid- dire and unsettled with more showers and risk of thunder"- this is tailored to the people who just want a sustained settled spell so that they can do outdoor stuff and not be rained on. However, showers are hit-and-miss features and we often see some places end up mainly dry and sunny, which hardly comes across to Joe Public as a continuation of the preceding dull wet weather!

Edited December 16, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[IanR]

The summer equivalent for me is those occasions when a cold grey wet spell leads into a warmer, brighter spell with thundery showers. I can usually be relied upon to relish such a change, while forecasts can equally be relied upon to say, "more of the same I'm afraid- dire and unsettled with more showers and risk of thunder"- this is tailored to the people who just want a sustained settled spell so that they can do outdoor stuff and not be rained on. However, showers are hit-and-miss features and we often see some places end up mainly dry and sunny, which hardly comes across to Joe Public as a continuation of the preceding dull wet weather!

agree with this

as soon as an afternoon heavy shower arrives on what was a perfect sunny day up to that point some people start to moan and say what a rubbish day, even if it was just that one shower,

[MP-R]

One thing that never ceases to annoy my mother is when a 'predominantly' dry, bright and sunny is forecast on the TV so she thinks that means no showers will occur. In summer, when the BBC say a sunny day is on the cards but with a generally WSW flow and pressure less than 1015mb, the chances are showers will develop off the Bristol Channel. She gets annoyed when the surprise shower turns up, regarding the BBC as rubbish when she forgot the word 'predominantly'.

Anyway, back to now. I'm coming back from Madrid tomorrow (here it is currently cloudy, 14C with a gale force wind blowing despite what the models show as an area of high pressure over us). I hope for some interesting weather when back in the UK. The last week before I came to Spain there were horrendous floods in the southwest (24th September) and it looks like the same may happen again later next week!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

One thing that never ceases to annoy my mother is when a 'predominantly' dry, bright and sunny is forecast on the TV so she thinks that means no showers will occur. In summer, when the BBC say a sunny day is on the cards but with a generally WSW flow and pressure less than 1015mb, the chances are showers will develop off the Bristol Channel. She gets annoyed when the surprise shower turns up, regarding the BBC as rubbish when she forgot the word 'predominantly'.

Anyway, back to now. I'm coming back from Madrid tomorrow (here it is currently cloudy, 14C with a gale force wind blowing despite what the models show as an area of high pressure over us). I hope for some interesting weather when back in the UK. The last week before I came to Spain there were horrendous floods in the southwest (24th September) and it looks like the same may happen again later next week!

BBC are crap at forecasting showers off the sea! especially from a NW wind direction

[syed2878]

i c some people getting excited about chance of snow in scotland and charts showing a northerly about 10days away, havent people learned yet that those charts have lesthan 1percent of coming off. As for later on in winter il beleave it when i c it. Peeps talk about last feb well here it was crap for snow, it only snowed for few hours and it was all gon by the next day.

[syed2878]

an excelent post by barmada casten lets hope mor peeps read that post and yes i love the cold and snow.

[SnowObsessor90]

Peeps talk about last feb well here it was crap for snow, it only snowed for few hours and it was all gon by the next day.

You know things are looking bad when you see people trying to use that particular so called 'cold spell' as a straw to clutch. I'd like to think that things haven't quite gotten to that stage yet however.

[TwisterGirl81]

I'm so dissapointed in winter so far and I will never again trust the forecasting models that mostly indicated a colder than adverage winter and snow events. I know behcause of where the UK is situated on the Atlantic it does tend to keep it that few degrees higher than what is should be at our latitude but I really want snow for god sake!! They have shed loads in the eastern Europe, they always get snow

Yes I am super pro snow!!! I know it's not nice for some elderly people or drivers but they manage in Canada and Russia/Eastern Europe where they get lots and lots! This country needs to get it's act together because one day we will get a really snow/cold winter and we wont know what to do in the south!

[Aaron]

You know things are looking bad when you see people trying to use that particular so called 'cold spell' as a straw to clutch. I'd like to think that things haven't quite gotten to that stage yet however.

that cold spell was alright for eastern areas - down to -16C in East Anglia and Lincolnshire, with 15cm of snow here. It was mostly a southern cold spell though. Edited December 17, 2012 by Aaron

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://bbc.co.uk/weather/6185377, now that is winter! not our pathetic excuse of a winter, although admittedly they are further north, but not much further north than lerwick

[Carl46Wrexham]

Sick and tired of rain...rain....rain...day after day after sodding day! Now what is coming from Wednesday onwards?? More b*stard rain....just what we bloody need eh? More rain...more mud...more leaden skies, more waterlogging...fanbloodytastic.

Sod off already!

Edited December 17, 2012 by Carl46Wrexham

[Sean19]

Sick and tired of rain...rain....rain...day after day after sodding day! Now what is coming from Wednesday onwards?? More b*stard rain....just what we bloody need eh? More rain...more mud...more leaden skies, more waterlogging...fanbloodytastic.

Sod off already!

It's the governments fault for announcing a drought earlier on this year. I think they fiddled with "HAARP" a bit too much and they have screwed all of the seasons up.

Just a theory of course...

Edited December 17, 2012 by Sean19

[Don]

http://bbc.co.uk/weather/6185377, now that is winter! not our pathetic excuse of a winter, although admittedly they are further north, but not much further north than lerwick

Hmm, perhaps a little too cold even for my liking!

[syed2878]

well ladies and gents keep your chinns up and all u have a good christmas and new year. Oh and surely jan and feb will give us onions load of snow so points the background signals. Have a good1peeps dnt let the weather get u down.

[Terminal Moraine]

http://bbc.co.uk/weather/6185377, now that is winter! not our pathetic excuse of a winter, although admittedly they are further north, but not much further north than lerwick

Aye, but with a distinct absence of ocean!

[Village]

I am happy with the winters we get. Its great to see it gloomy and dark at 3:40pm, its exciting to have aggressive weather systems racing through with gales, its great to have bright sunshine and frost, its great to have snow. Its great to have thick fog at times too.....havent you ever made yourself dissapear in a field in dense fog as a kid?

We get the lot here.

Yellowknife would bore anyone to tears....relentless white, freezing day after day after day with little wind and cloud for most of the time. Its a desert in winter .... a desert of snow crystals instead of sand.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's an interesting question- in the UK we don't get the cold snowy winters that most continental masses get, but we get a much larger variety of weather types. Most continental land masses are not prone to those "cold air, warm sea" setups with convection firing in off the sea and occasionally bringing a large dumping of snow to windward areas, or those stormy Atlantic depressions with squall lines followed by sunshine mixed with squally rain and hail showers.

The areas to the south, east and west of the Great Lakes in the USA appear to combine continentality with the "cold air, warm sea" setups that I am so fond of in the UK, but there aren't many other such examples.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers