The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[sandstorm2]

Just had to post a reply to this post in the MT thread.

''I do think time is running out for any significant cold, the old sun is getting higher now - more heat - more light - less snow''!

Are you kidding, it is only the eighth of January which is only about 2 weeks since the shortest day. We still have at least 8 weeks of potentially wintry weather and anyway the height of the sun in this country has nothing to do with how warm the weathwer is, remember at the summer solstice we can have temps in single figures.

SS2

SS2

[Thundery wintry showers]

March 2004 also saw long lasting snow cover on low ground in the opening days of the month. I was working in Sunderland at the time and living in Newcastle and I remember after a good fall of snow on the 28th - up to 6 inches in Sunderland itself the snow stuck around until the 4th/5th with only a limited thaw and that was under bright clear skies. Uppers were cold thanks to an arctic airmass. It was a notable snowfall for the Sunderland area I seem to remember.

Yeah, I missed out on that one because I was over in Lancaster at the time, where there was just a dusting on the 26th/27th (a routine occurrence for those living in Lancaster, where wet snow isn't uncommon but significant accumulations certainly are). The snow cover did pretty well considering that maxima were up at 4-6C from the 29th onwards- presumably the low dew points helped considerably towards retaining the snow cover.

[stewfox]

Well a crumb of comfort that I keep having to remind myself of is how late some cold spells have arrived. In 2006/2007, it was dire up until January 21st then there was a snowfall on the 24th then another on February 8th. At the other extreme, 1990/1991 didn't produce any meaningful cold here anyway until the final third of January with the first snow arriving here on January 30th and then we all know what happened after that.

2001 even produced a notable cold spell for a lot of March with a considerable snowfall as late as the 21st during the day! However, by late February/March it really needs to be a cloudy spell if lasting snow is what someone is after.

Meanwhile - today feels like spring!

Since when is 24th Jan or 8th Feb 'late' ??

Late for me is end Feb or March

You can still get prolonged cold snaps in January

Anyway set for a repeat of Feb 86 or is it too late 8th Jan now

Ths winter is turning into one of the most depressing, i find it quite sad people straw clutching for small signs of a change when there isnt any, its the same flat zonal pattern with HP close enough to the south to stop any exciting weather with cloudy mild conditions prevailing, i really cant see any hope at all for a decent severe cold snap, Mild winters are never fun, we get mild weather almost 9 months of the year so why would anyone want it every single month, i find as i get older i hate mild winters even more not the reverse.

Have you looked at the models recently ???

Edited January 8, 2012 by stewfox

[MP-R]

Since when is 24th Jan or 8th Feb 'late' ??

Late for me is end Feb or March

I dunno, since the use of the Gregorian calendar? I'm sure in most people's books, not having a cold spell with or without snow until the final week in January is late. In the same way as not having a heatwave with or without thunderstorms until the final week of July is also late.

The point I was making was not to nitpick at how late or not a date in the year is, but that it is possile for a rapid turnaround to something favourable after an unseasonal winter so far.... a la 2006/2007 for example.

[leicsnow]

If January is "too late" for snow there really isn't any good time for it, as January and February usually get more snow than December!

[MP-R]

I get your point. But I never said it was 'too' late. And of course January itself isn't late as it covers 31 days. The final week of January however is late to have a first cold spell.

[Gord]

Still playing a waiting game this winter but things seem to be a lot better this weekend.

It's like when you have a long wait at a main railway station and your train finally appears at the bottom of the giant departure screens.

Still a week of nothing ahead though.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Gord

[Aaron]

I get your point. But I never said it was 'too' late. And of course January itself isn't late as it covers 31 days. The final week of January however is late to have a first cold spell.

No it isn't. Cold spells don't occur every year.

[MP-R]

No it isn't. Cold spells don't occur every year.

Quite right - and those years are awful. Hence why 'better late than never' I suppose...

[Froze were the Days]

Felt like early spring today and yesterday, last time we had any form of a frost was back on 21st December! seen snowdrops and crocus out already, quite ridiculous. Quite unbelievable too over the last year how high pressure has 'set up' synoptically in all the places which would bring the UK very mild/warm conditions bar Summer.

I can see a return to more typical Atlantic weather next week like we had for much of December, some milder pockets with colder Pm stuff at times and agin becoming windier.

[leicsnow]

It's really looking like February is our final hope now!

[syed2878]

Well guys i might be a voice of doom this earlly in the morming but i dont think we will get the cold and snow we all waighting for. It's mild with some cold and from that i think only scotland and nor of england highground will get some snow like december. How i hope i'm wrong.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well its raining AGAIN here this morning,absolutely sick to death of this now it just never stops,well OK it kind of did during Autumn but it pretty much rained daily in summer and its pretty much rained daily in 'winter' so far.

Thats worth a moan .

[Eugene]

I don't agree with those who say this has been a typical winter, in a typical winter you would expect nights to be alot colder than they have been, even in average winters you record alot more ground/air frosts than this one.

[Jimmyh]

I would state that the weeks leading up to Christmas ok not cold but boy i dont think i have ever seen a jet stream that powerful and into January it continued. The dart board lows that we received especially the one that seemed to last for about 12 hours last week exceptional. As someone said on another thread this is turning out to be a very strange winter. No autumn til December 75-80 degrees in October not quite right. I think there will be a massive sting in the tail and if the synoptic goes the way of the uk could be a sensational battle ground it really could.

Keep faith people

[Eugene]

Yes autumn was very warm even if the upcoming spring is warm it will record alot more cold nights, i saw hoar frost in the countryside in early May last year.

[Aaron]

I had a May air frost last year... but it's not really rare

[leicsnow]

I had a May air frost last year... but it's not really rare

Spring frost is far more common than Autumn frost, due to the cool oceans keeping the land cool out of the sun, which is why in Spring the climate can become very continental, with warmish days and potentially frosty nights under constant clear skies. I've had a 17c afternoon followed by -1c overnight in April and it sort of reminds me of the Death Valley in Wintertime.

Anyway back on topic I'm feeling more postive today (due to the models), but I'm a fool for taking each and every model run seriously (can't help it tho ).

Edited January 11, 2012 by Tellow

[A Winter's Tale]

Winter 2011/2012, do I still have faith in it? Does anyone still have faith in this winter producing a cold spell on the same lines as the past 3 winters?

I've got to say that I'm glad that December was a good month as it ensured that this winter would be better than some of those in the past 10 years, but until things look better soon, I'd say that an early Spring is on the cards and perhaps by the end of February things could look very strange.

So, I've heard people say that February may have the goods, but can I have reasons to why I should believe that February will be good.

When was the SSW predicted for, has it happened and does it look like having an impact.

Personally, I really do feel that this SSW and PV is being very stubborn and before anything happens it will be too late for February to see a decent cold snap.

So my predictions are:

Winter 2011/2012: December coldest and snowiest month, January and February notably mild and snowless, particulary February.

Spring 2012: March might start mild, but turn progressively colder. A cold and snowy March, cool start to April and warm end to April and May.

Summer 2012: June may start of warm, however July and August to be similar to 2011 if not worse, hardly any heat and lots of cloud and rain and an early autumn. yuck

Autumn 2012: Early start, maybe some warmth in September, a seasonal October and a chilly November.

Winter 2012/2013: A cold December, mild January and chilly February.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Winter 2011/2012, do I still have faith in it? Does anyone still have faith in this winter producing a cold spell on the same lines as the past 3 winters?

I've got to say that I'm glad that December was a good month as it ensured that this winter would be better than some of those in the past 10 years, but until things look better soon, I'd say that an early Spring is on the cards and perhaps by the end of February things could look very strange.

So, I've heard people say that February may have the goods, but can I have reasons to why I should believe that February will be good.

When was the SSW predicted for, has it happened and does it look like having an impact.

Personally, I really do feel that this SSW and PV is being very stubborn and before anything happens it will be too late for February to see a decent cold snap.

So my predictions are:

Winter 2011/2012: December coldest and snowiest month, January and February notably mild and snowless, particulary February.

Spring 2012: March might start mild, but turn progressively colder. A cold and snowy March, cool start to April and warm end to April and May.

Summer 2012: June may start of warm, however July and August to be similar to 2011 if not worse, hardly any heat and lots of cloud and rain and an early autumn. yuck

Autumn 2012: Early start, maybe some warmth in September, a seasonal October and a chilly November.

Winter 2012/2013: A cold December, mild January and chilly February.

I am glad you had a good December!

We certainly did not!

It has been autumn here since the middle of October!

I have had 2 frosts so far.

[A Winter's Tale]

I am glad you had a good December!

We certainly did not!

It has been autumn here since the middle of October!

I have had 2 frosts so far.

We've had more days of falling or even lying snow than air frosts. Quite disapointing, and I'm so glad that December was up there with the top 5 snowiest months at Glasgow Airport since 1997. December was close to if not slightly below average here in Scotland and quite snowy in the NW. January looks like it doesn't have too much on offer yet. Anything can still happen for February and patience is still needed but I've heard not much in the way of evidence supporting some positivity for February. Personally I believe March will deliver the goods. But in the meantime, it has been a pretty frostless winter for most and very mild further south and practically Spring has arrived here. But as we all know, Autumn arrived in summer and then summer came back, Summer arrived in Spring and then.....and so on. It has been so messed up in 2011 and I feel that this will continue into 2012.

I feel that Spring is going to arrive early and be over and done with in February, our winter will be March and maybe even early April, our summer will arrive later in April. Our Autumn will arrive early again, maybe another summer and maybe another early winter. So two summers, no spring in March, April or May and no Autumn in September, October and November.

However what I do hope for is:

Spring 2012: March with so good snow, frost aswell as a whole variety of weather. Some snow in April, some heat and loads of sun. A warm and sunny May with some frost.

Summer 2012: Warm, no humidity, no thunderstorms, some rain when needed, a nice breeze and lots of sunshine.

Autumn 2012: Early frost in September, mixture of windy, wet, sunny. Indian Summer in September, October with fog, frost, sun, wind, rain. Cold, crisp and snowy end to November.

December 2012: Very cold and snowy.

[Isolated Frost]

Winter 2011/2012, do I still have faith in it? Does anyone still have faith in this winter producing a cold spell on the same lines as the past 3 winters?

I've got to say that I'm glad that December was a good month as it ensured that this winter would be better than some of those in the past 10 years, but until things look better soon, I'd say that an early Spring is on the cards and perhaps by the end of February things could look very strange.

So, I've heard people say that February may have the goods, but can I have reasons to why I should believe that February will be good.

When was the SSW predicted for, has it happened and does it look like having an impact.

Personally, I really do feel that this SSW and PV is being very stubborn and before anything happens it will be too late for February to see a decent cold snap.

I think you need a look at the strat charts and the 500mb charts... obvious signs of change. There is no SSW being forecasted to my knowledge, many bursts of warmer air though.

And for the bit in bold, goodness gracious, why does it need to be as severe as the last 3?! 2009/10 was the coldest in 30 years, 2010/11 had the coldest december in 120 years and 2008/09 had a strong easterly delivering the most snow london had received since 1991. The last 2 winters especially have been rather abnormal... the thing that gets on my nerves is people expecting cold spells similar to the last few, which some of us will never see again (Jan 2010, Dec 2010).

[leicsnow]

Campsie, what is your basis for your YEARLY forecast? Or is it just gut feeling? If it's not the latter, it seems a bit odd that you can predict all that.

[Aaron]

All I want it some air frost, a bit of snow, and hey, who knows, the odd ice day or two.. a TYPICAL winter delivers all of this, IMBY anyway.

I wouldn't mind a February 2008 repeat actually.. that had a -2C ice day, temperatures down to -7C and stunning rime frost here

Edited January 11, 2012 by Aaron

[I remember Atlantic 252]

All I want it some air frost, a bit of snow, and hey, who knows, the odd ice day or two.. a TYPICAL winter delivers all of this, IMBY anyway.

I wouldn't mind a February 2008 repeat actually.. that had a -2C ice day, temperatures down to -7C and stunning rime frost here

yeah, fri sat and sun could be the best of winter, look frosty and sunny, then from tues back to the rain again