The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[Bumpkin]

I don't think the discussion in the model thread is the problem but the ramping and the knicker-wetting excitement followed by the wrist slitting. I read the model thread all year round as I am interested in what the models are showing and the weather and climate in general but during the winter months it does drive me mad. Our winters have traditionally been a mixture of cold, mild, wet and dry but some posters seem to think that if an ice age and snowmaggedon isn't showing then somehow its the end of the world.

There is nothing you can do about the weather so just except what you are given. I'm all for reasoned discussion but at the moment there is very little in the model thread.

[Snowmad79]

I don't think the discussion in the model thread is the problem but the ramping and the knicker-wetting excitement followed by the wrist slitting. I read the model thread all year round as I am interested in what the models are showing and the weather and climate in general but during the winter months it does drive me mad. Our winters have traditionally been a mixture of cold, mild, wet and dry but some posters seem to think that if an ice age and snowmaggedon isn't showing then somehow its the end of the world.

There is nothing you can do about the weather so just except what you are given. I'm all for reasoned discussion but at the moment there is very little in the model thread.

yea, I agree with that Cirro, I just don't agree that ramping is the problem. Most aren't really ramping, they are merely posting what they see in output. I suppose they could follow up there comments with "it's not a certainty but purely speculation at this point" but most people should already know that most of the output beyond say 48hr is just that, speculation.

If more people used this mood thread, when throwing a tantrum, the output thread would be a lot easier on the eyes

[TAFKAP]

To me it looks like a short cold snap giving pretty much all eastern coasts a dusting of snow then the atlantic pushes back in which gives a few cm's in some lucky places before melting the next day then its mild southwesterley's all the way through the winter, mild air with a strong southwesterly wind, oh yes.

Failtroll fails

Edited December 7, 2012 by jbuffett1980

[TAFKAP]

More of this to come in the model thread?

[weather eater]

The lessons never get learnt do they; you can’t trust model output beyond about 72hrs, you can’t trust it when its showing cold and a fair number of you are in danger of making the same mistake now it’s not. Why not wait and see before tallying up who has won in the battle of the optimists vs. pessimists?

[Hammer]

Low confidence in snow but everyone seems to have high confidence about today's solutions. I do love this forum. After looking at the post last night from Ian F where attention was growing on snow risk. Have we had update to this. I've seen the models struggle with setups like this to write next off yet.

[mountain shadow]

So in summary. Model watching is pointless. The anomaly forecasts are pointless. The strat forecasts are

Pointless as none of them can pick up on small features which can scupper the whole pattern.?

[Wilxy]

GFS 12z was a disaster with the atlantic pushing through as early as wednesday next week.

Back to chasing cold in FI it is

[weather eater]

Never mind there’s another FI easterly waiting in the wings, who will be first to talk this one up.

[Dan the Man]

I think the last few days prove how difficult it is to forecast these snow events. We give the Met Office a lot of flak, but forecasting UK weather, especially at this time of year is an absolute minefield!

Still a week out - there will be many twists and turns to come.

[Mark Bayley]

So in summary. Model watching is pointless. The anomaly forecasts are pointless. The strat forecasts are

Pointless as none of them can pick up on small features which can scupper the whole pattern.?

No, they enable us to forecast the broad pattern, e.g. the strat forecast would enable us to determine whether the PV is likely to become disrupted or disorganised, by for example a warming. From this we can say the chance of blocking is going to increase, and so a cold spell. The teleconnections are useful, they enable us to pick broad patterns that are likely to occur. In this case height rises to the NE!

Edited December 7, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[weather_it_will]

Unbelievable all the game over brigade on here today.

A couple of bad model runs does not mean end of winter.

I expect we will still get an easterly, maybe sooner than we think.

The models can easily change overnight to something better for cold fans.

Edited December 7, 2012 by snow is falling

[Moleyroley]

Never realised how frustrating this could be ?! When this happens I tell myself ill have a break from model watching but you can bet ill be back for the next run !!! Just can't stay away

Chin up peeps ðŸ˜

[bradymk]

Im not one to get too down on model outputs as i have seen this all too often, its something annoying and you get used to it but i do think the GFS is still being too progressive. Were moaning about the easterly being downgraded from 144 mark so why cant the atlantic be upgraded at same timeframe. If everyone has been saying FI is early, why so much confidence in later outputs now. Even though i feel the GFS is wrong with this atm, i feel its a big ECM run amd ensembles tonight, an important one for sure

[I Cumbria Marra I]

To me it looks like a short cold snap giving pretty much all eastern coasts a dusting of snow then the atlantic pushes back in which gives a few cm's in some lucky places before melting the next day then its mild southwesterley's all the way through the winter, mild air with a strong southwesterly wind, oh yes.

oh dear, based on the 12z this could actually happen.

[Summer Sun]

More wintry weather on the way next week

7 December 2012 - Met Office forecasters are predicting a brief respite from the cold weather over the weekend, before a renewed wintry blast returns from the northeast next week.

A ridge of high pressure will bring quiet and slightly milder conditions for most parts of the UK over the weekend with temperatures perhaps reaching 10 Celsius in places. Outbreaks of rain across Scotland on Saturday will slowly spread southwards to bring some rain to England and Wales on Sunday. It's on Monday next week when we expect to see the first signs of much colder weather, as the wind starts to blow from the northeast, bringing showers to the east coast. From Tuesday it's going to be much colder everywhere.

Tony Waters, Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, said: "After a brief milder spell this weekend we are expecting the coldest spell of the winter so far to develop across the UK next week. Eastern and southeastern coastal counties can expect to see the most frequent snow showers, but a few will probably spread further inland to central parts as the week goes on. With temperatures falling well below freezing at night, lying snow and the formation of ice could lead to some treacherous conditions and possible disruption to travel."

Met Office Cold Weather Alerts have been issued for the whole of England as the forecast weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients. Public Health Minister Anna Soubry, said: "It's really important people look after themselves and be good neighbours to older friends in the cold weather. In the winter older people and those with long term conditions are more likely to suffer heart attacks and strokes, respiratory illnesses can get worse, and there is the risk of falls on slippery ground.

"We have given £20 million to local authorities to help vulnerable people stay well during cold weather and get the help they need within their communities. And we urge anyone with a long-term condition to get a free flu jab from their GP. "The NHS is well prepared for an increase in winter related health problems which are typical at this time of year. Preparations are made across the NHS annually and these are now in place in every area of England."

The latest forecasts and warnings can be found on the Met Office website, on our mobile apps, and through TV and radio broadcasts on the BBC and ITV.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/renewed-wintry-blast?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[UV-RAY]

As I've stated before just because all the background signals point to cold, it's little features such as short waves which can scupper the best of LRF. On a plus point high latitude blocking remains the form horse in the NH over the coming months, so it's only a matter of time before we do get lucky.

[Bradowl]

More of this to come in the model thread?

Someone had better post number for Samaritans on there.

[Barry12]

Yep, lets chase FI easterlys, lets all ramp including the so called 'experts' who say how likely it is that we will be get 'deep cold'..

all the positive posts about the long term prospects of a long cold blocked easterly set up, how all the means are 'reading of the same hymn sheet',

then a few bad runs and it goes from deep cold being a certainty of it being 'game over'.

NO ONE IS AN EXPERT - NO ONE CAN PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE UK WEATHER, MODEL WATCHING IS A COMPLETE AND UTTER WASTE OF TIME. ESPECIALLY WHEN EVERYONE SAYS HOW GOOD IT LUCKS NEXT MINUTE 'GAME OVER'

My forecast for the rest of winter, is south-westerly dominated, with the apparent below average January being a damp squib. Dec 2010 was a one off and won't happen again until about 2112.

[Flanman73]

Been reading the model thread with some amusement over the last few weeks. From what I can make out, I may as well get my 6 year old to colour in a map of W Europe and that would be as useful as most of the model output that tries to predict the weather in the UK in the middle of December anything more than a couple of days in advance.

Very strange how despite so many disappointments/being proved wrong, people continue to put so much faith in them. Like I say though, very amusing.

[SnowObsessor90]

As Snowy Easterlies said in the MOD thread earlier is there anybody else who would now actually prefer if the Models now fully firmed up on a mild zonal pattern with no end in site? Personally I would, it'd certainly beat the alternative of being lead up the garden path for the umpteenth time anyway.

[weatherjay]

I for one am loving the latest outputs.. hate nothing worst than cold weather and it now looks like warm air will be moving in earlier than expexted with thankfull NO snow! could even be tshirt and short weather as we move into next weekend happy days

[PolarWarsaw]

Such a frustrating period of model watching at the moment, it's hard to not rant.

What I find personally so very annoying is, that during the periods where the charts look great (at t168 and later) 95% of the forum and model thread contributors/watchers go into 'siberian express', 'lets buy the shovels' mode, blindly analysing every single frame section by section, run by run - talking about 'snow moving in from the south at t210' - yet the very second I or someone else pops in and makes a comment such as, 'its all in FI', 'there will be inveitable dramas', 'stop getting overally excited' and so I get my head taken off for not enjoying the charts, being negative and not getting into the 'swing of things'.

This is the SECOND, YES 2ND lesson of winter and we are only in the 2nd week of December. The models LEAD us up the garden path virtually everyday on a compilation of many different outcomes. It's why it becomes so frustrating and comments of 'told you so' come out of my mouth to thoose that sniped and swashed at my opinion. The climate and location we live in is so volatile in situations regarding winter its incredible, we may see 25 consistent GFS runs in addition to ECM/UKMO broadly reading the same hymn sheet all at t144, BUT that does not matter.

Just a few final notes of my rant.

*UNTIL THE WEATHER COMES INTO T48 - CHANCES ARE IT WONT! HAPPEN.

*DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING AFTER T48 AS GOSPEL, OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT.

*COLD SPELLS WILL ALWAYS* BE MODELED WELL, BETTER OR PERFECTLY AT T168 - DONT GET REMOTELY EXCITED OR POSITIVE ABOUT THEM

*DONT COUNT ANY CHICKENS.

*DONT RAMP ANYTHING UP UNTIL ITS ON YOUR DOORSTEP

*LASTLY - FOR GOD SAKE, DO NOT! UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES GET CAUGHT UP ON ANYTHING MODELED, OR WHAT ANYONE SAYS, AT ANYPOINT. THE TELECONNECTIONS HAVE BEEN PERFECT* FOR WEEKS NOW AND EVEN THOUGH GP,STEVE, NICK & CO HAVE CORRECTLY POINTED OUT EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE SO TO SPEAK, I'VE NOT SEEN A SNOWFLAKE YET.

Rant over.

Edited December 7, 2012 by PolarWarsaw

[Barry12]

I for one am loving the latest outputs.. hate nothing worst than cold weather and it now looks like warm air will be moving in earlier than expexted with thankfull NO snow! could even be tshirt and short weather as we move into next weekend happy days

'Warm air' I'm not sure if you realize but summer ended quite a while ago, it's winter it's not going to be warm. You can wear t-shirts and shorts next weekend - but when you start crying about being cold, don't cry to me.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yep, lets chase FI easterlys, lets all ramp including the so called 'experts' who say how likely it is that we will be get 'deep cold'..

all the positive posts about the long term prospects of a long cold blocked easterly set up, how all the means are 'reading of the same hymn sheet',

then a few bad runs and it goes from deep cold being a certainty of it being 'game over'.

NO ONE IS AN EXPERT - NO ONE CAN PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE UK WEATHER, MODEL WATCHING IS A COMPLETE AND UTTER WASTE OF TIME. ESPECIALLY WHEN EVERYONE SAYS HOW GOOD IT LUCKS NEXT MINUTE 'GAME OVER'

My forecast for the rest of winter, is south-westerly dominated, with the apparent below average January being a damp squib. Dec 2010 was a one off and won't happen again until about 2112.