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A Winter's Tale

October 2011: Indian Summer Or Early Winter Blast? You Choose

October 2011  

117 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the Temperatures be like?

    • Way Above Average - Summer's last laugh
      12
    • Above Average - Some nice, pleasant autumnal weather
      29
    • Average - Typical October with some heat and cold and some rain and sun
      40
    • Below Average - Some cold and frosty nights
      29
    • Way Below Average - Winter arrives early with some snow
      7
  2. 2. On How Many Days will the Maximum Temperature be over 20c

    • 0-5 days
      68
    • 5-10 days
      40
    • 10-15 days
      7
    • 15-20 days
      0
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      2
  3. 3. How Many Nights will see Temperatures below 0c

    • 0-5 days
      61
    • 5-10 days
      38
    • 10-15 days
      11
    • 15-20 days
      6
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      1
  4. 4. Will There Be An Indian Summer?

    • Yes, 100% - A repeat of April 2011 after a dismall summer
      26
    • Perhaps - Some nice days with the odd really warm one but no last hoorah for sumer
      47
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps a few decent days but nothing notable.
      33
    • No, 100% - Summer has ended and we are on our way to winter.
      11
  5. 5. Will We See Our First Taste of Winter 2011/2012?

    • Yes, 100% - I expect winter arrive early with some snow and plenty of frost.
      9
    • Perhaps - I expect quite a few frosts and perhaps snow after a poor summer.
      30
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps we may only see a few frosts and snow in hills.
      51
    • No, 100% - October is too early to be thinking about snow, just a few frosts and that's it.
      27


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It feels very wintry today.

It is currently 4.9C in Aviemore and at the moment it is looking pretty good for another chilly night. If the temperature continues to fall and showers keep on rolling in, perhaps we may see snow being observed at places such as Aviemore. Certainly the hills around there have had a good fall of snow.

It feels very wintry today.

It was 4.9C in Aviemore at 3pm and at the moment it is looking pretty good for another chilly night. If the temperature continues to fall and showers keep on rolling in, perhaps we may see snow being observed at places such as Aviemore. Certainly the hills around there have had a good fall of snow

Now 5C at Loch Glascarnoch.

Less cool patch moving in tonight. Should add a few degrees to the temperature - we'd also need frequent showers to keep the temperature down - the northerly tomorrow should be cooler than to day in the north and east, warmer in the west and south. Should generally be less showery tomorrow as hp ridges in aswell - but today was fantastic. Shetland snow watch for you to think about tomorrow night :)

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Less cool patch moving in tonight. Should add a few degrees to the temperature - we'd also need frequent showers to keep the temperature down - the northerly tomorrow should be cooler than to day in the north and east, warmer in the west and south. Should generally be less showery tomorrow as hp ridges in aswell - but today was fantastic. Shetland snow watch for you to think about tomorrow night smile.png

Yes 0C uppers will be arriving tonight but the first -5C line of the season may reach Shetland. This could mean some snow and low temperatures. If today had been winter (and uppers slightly cooler), we would have had a hell of a lot of snow.

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If today was winter, I wonder how cold it would be, right now there's a wind chill of around 3C!

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If today was winter, I wonder how cold it would be, right now there's a wind chill of around 3C!

Probably 2C maximum!shok.gif

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Oh, that isn't cold at all.

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If this were mid-February (generally coldest possible from a wnw/nw flow), I'd imagine in Leeds, a high of about 4-5c in sunlight, 3-4c under cloud cover and 1-2c under showers, falling towards 0c in the heaviest. Very low dew points however would ensure an all snow event in mid-feb from this synoptic scenario. And also, 2c is very cold, say 4c below the Feb average. Only the last 2 winters have raised peoples expectations I guess - they could be brought down if we get anywhere near an average winter with fewer potent spells. I'd consider anything below 5c max in winter to be cold, anything 5-8c cool, 8-10c average, 10c+ warm, as usually temperatures are generally higher than the average apart from the cold spells that last less than the overwhelming sw'ly that britain SHOULD be getting - due to thermohaline cirul. etc.

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Oh, that isn't cold at all.

For where you are it probably would be colder then 2C due to being further North.

I was just talking about the UK as a whole.

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If this were mid-February (generally coldest possible from a wnw/nw flow), I'd imagine in Leeds, a high of about 4-5c in sunlight, 3-4c under cloud cover and 1-2c under showers, falling towards 0c in the heaviest. Very low dew points however would ensure an all snow event in mid-feb from this synoptic scenario. And also, 2c is very cold, say 4c below the Feb average. Only the last 2 winters have raised peoples expectations I guess - they could be brought down if we get anywhere near an average winter with fewer potent spells. I'd consider anything below 5c max in winter to be cold, anything 5-8c cool, 8-10c average, 10c+ warm, as usually temperatures are generally higher than the average apart from the cold spells that last less than the overwhelming sw'ly that britain SHOULD be getting - due to thermohaline cirul. etc.

Maxes of 2c occur in December, January and February frequently here and ice days occur at least once.. cold, yes, but not note worthy.

Temperatures are not usually higher than average, otherwise all winter months would be higher than average.

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Maxes of 2c occur in December, January and February frequently here and ice days occur at least once.. cold, yes, but not note worthy.

Temperatures are not usually higher than average, otherwise all winter months would be higher than average.

But you said it was not cold at all?

If you pick any day in winter, it's more likely to milder than average - mild spells usually dominate most of the months and are only slightly above mild temperature-wise, cool spells are usually more potent and are cooler than average by a bit more.

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But you said it was not cold at all?

If you pick any day in winter, it's more likely to milder than average - mild spells usually dominate most of the months and are only slightly above mild temperature-wise, cool spells are usually more potent and are cooler than average by a bit more.

Mild spells usually dominate in mild months, of course.

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http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Although deep into FI, at the end of the run there is a promising cold spell (for parts of Europe anyway). It's nice to see some reasonably large areas of cold air over Europe again.

Anyway, we've had our Indian Summer and today/tomorrow should be our first taste of winter (well, for Shetland anyway).

The -5C line shall reach the Islands and this could bring some snowfalls and perhaps some accumilations on the higher ground.

This would be the first -5C line of the winter and last year it was October 20th that saw the first -5C line.

Currently, the -5C line is over the Faroe Islands so let's check what it's like there:

6C in Torshavn although that could change.

Now Let's look at October so far:

6th October: 16C to 1.8C

5th October: 22.1C to 8.2C

4th October: 21.7C to 5.1C

3rd October: 28.3C to 5.5C

2nd October: 29.3C to 3.7C

1st October: 29.9C to 6C

Extreme Temperatures so far;

29.9C to 1.8C

Difference of 28.1C!!!!!

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Still a long way off but the period 16th to 24th October has a very decent northerly over the UK. If this were to happen we would have frosts by night and perhaps even some snow aswell.

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