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16th Sept - 18th Sept 2011 Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports


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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Morning all,smile.png

    A new thread here to discuss the potential of thunderstorms this weekend. A few storms around today and maybe tomorrow. Good luck all,whistling.gif hope you get onesmile.png as for me I 'll still probably be in the NSC lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Good Morning all

    Good luck jane

    Last Updated: 22:59 Thursday, 15th September 2011

    Valid: 00:00 Friday, 16th September 2011 - 23:59 Friday, 16th September 2011

    Severe: Northern Ireland, N parts of the Republic of Ireland. Slight: the northern half of Ireland, N Wales, NW England, S Scotland.

    Areas Affected:

    Synopsis:Low pressure centred south of Iceland will extend an occluded front to the southeast, this will push across Ireland and into western Britain during the day. This will be followed by an upper trough that will help to trigger showers over Ireland and potentially NW Britain in the afternoon.

    Discussion:An interesting set-up on Friday. An occluded front will produce some showery rain during the morning, but this should clear away to the east during the middle part of the day allowing for some sunshine into the afternoon.

    A negatively tilted upper level trough with 500mb temperatures of around -23C will push into Ireland and western Britain during the afternoon, providing unstable air aloft. This will produce modest CAPE values 300-500j/kg during the afternoon, highest of which will be over N Ireland. ELTs will be -20C across the area, but as low as -35C over parts of N Ireland for a time during the afternoon.

    Surface winds will be south to southwesterly for much of the day, but they will veer around to the west or northwest into parts of Ireland later in the afternoon. 0-6km shear values will be in the region of 30-40kts, this along with 0-1km shear values of 20-25kts will produce the potential for a few tornadoes into the afternoon coinciding with the largest amount of instability. Shear values also lend themselves to the potential of some large hail, with values in the region of 1.5-2cm.

    It should be stressed that overall potential for this severe weather remains low. Instability is marginal, and large amounts of cloud may linger into the afternoon limiting surface insolation.

    Showers are not likely to be severe outside of the the zone in northern parts of Eire

    http://www.ukasf.co....m-forecasts/106

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Good Morning all

    Good luck jane

    Last Updated: 22:59 Thursday, 15th September 2011

    Valid: 00:00 Friday, 16th September 2011 - 23:59 Friday, 16th September 2011

    Severe: Northern Ireland, N parts of the Republic of Ireland. Slight: the northern half of Ireland, N Wales, NW England, S Scotland.

    Areas Affected:

    Synopsis:Low pressure centred south of Iceland will extend an occluded front to the southeast, this will push across Ireland and into western Britain during the day. This will be followed by an upper trough that will help to trigger showers over Ireland and potentially NW Britain in the afternoon.

    Discussion:An interesting set-up on Friday. An occluded front will produce some showery rain during the morning, but this should clear away to the east during the middle part of the day allowing for some sunshine into the afternoon.

    A negatively tilted upper level trough with 500mb temperatures of around -23C will push into Ireland and western Britain during the afternoon, providing unstable air aloft. This will produce modest CAPE values 300-500j/kg during the afternoon, highest of which will be over N Ireland. ELTs will be -20C across the area, but as low as -35C over parts of N Ireland for a time during the afternoon.

    Surface winds will be south to southwesterly for much of the day, but they will veer around to the west or northwest into parts of Ireland later in the afternoon. 0-6km shear values will be in the region of 30-40kts, this along with 0-1km shear values of 20-25kts will produce the potential for a few tornadoes into the afternoon coinciding with the largest amount of instability. Shear values also lend themselves to the potential of some large hail, with values in the region of 1.5-2cm.

    It should be stressed that overall potential for this severe weather remains low. Instability is marginal, and large amounts of cloud may linger into the afternoon limiting surface insolation.

    Showers are not likely to be severe outside of the the zone in northern parts of Eire

    http://www.ukasf.co....m-forecasts/106

    Morning Stu, Good luck to you toosmile.png It'll be your first storm in Inverness if one occurs biggrin.png. Wheelie bins are being moved around here today grrrr, so I must not try and mistake it for thunder lol. I think you and anyone else much further North have more of a chance then us down South.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Morning Stu, Good luck to you toosmile.png It'll be your first storm in Inverness if one occurs biggrin.png. Wheelie bins are being moved around here today grrrr, so I must not try and mistake it for thunder lol. I think you and anyone else much further North have more of a chance then us down South.

    no if we get 1 at the weekend that be 3

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    A few sferics showing across the Midlands earlier this morning, seems some sharp thundery showers have broken out drifting NNE associated with an upper disturbance in the moist southerly flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

    i can confirm that the showers were very convective on way to work. Set off from home and no rain, got down the street and it was torrential!

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Cloudy and overcast start here 1st thing this morning but now the sun has come out, bright and breezy. The wind has picked up noticably in the last hour and now is gusting 15-20mph temperature around 15C, I'm not expecting much in the way of showers of thunderstorms today but we are forecast some heavy downpours tommorow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Thunder heard in Norwich with 2 CGs to my S about 10-15mins ago, nothing since

    There are some dark looking clouds in the distance I wonder if 1 will venture our way, would luv some thunder it's been awhile since we had some!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Netweather storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

    ... some elevated storms earlier across Midlands and E Anglia ... then for rest of the day an isolated risk of thunder embedded along band of heavy rain moving NE across the north and west later, but I think main action from now on will be overnight across the far west as the unstable rPm flow moves in.

    Saturday and Sunday should see plenty of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the UK as low beocmes anchored over northern Britain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Met Office has the occluded front stalling mid-wales between now and Midnight, with a nice trough pattern moving across central parts of the country into tomorrow afternoon & midnight hours. Going to be a photogenic weekend convective wise, with the airmass around aswell. The Camera is already on charge.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Mostly sunny here with hazy cloud cover, quite breezy temperature now up to 17C. acute.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (98m ASL)
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (98m ASL)

    Dry and sunny here in NW1 - although classic castellaneus? (probably spelt wrong) drifted over this morning. This is supposed to be the 'sign of a summer thunderstorm' if I remember rightly.

    Presume it meant a little bit of disturbance in the upper atmosphere.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Torrential shower recently here in Cardiff now warm sunny.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    Torrential shower recently here in Cardiff now warm sunny.

    That was at the southern tip of a line stretching SSE from the main rain band, there's a similar line maybe 75 miles West with some

    heavy cells within it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    You would think the sun has set here it's so dark! Hoping for some activity later....

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Any news on what the outlook is for tonight/early hours into tomorrow afternoon?

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    So there I was 5 minutes ago reading my book and a sudden loud noise starts outside - a downpour!

    Quickly checked the sky all around and it's gone very black, logged on and radar at 15.45 shows quite quickly developing

    showers around this area (BA12) but no heavy cells, awaiting the next few 5 minute updates with interest.

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