20 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[Coast]

Rumours of more storms today - what do people think?

[Jane Louise]

Probably just a rumour lol :winky:

I'm still stormless here, but what's new lol

[grab my graupel]

Rumours of more storms today - what do people think?

Not a chance I'm afraid

I'm expecting to see some showers later on, but as for any electrical activity, I can't see it happening

[Coast]

ESTOFEX say no:

UKASF say maybe the same as yesterday:

Forecaster: Chris

Last Updated: 21:23 Tuesday, 19th July 2011

Valid: 00:00 Wednesday, 20th July 2011 - 23:59 Wednesday, 20th July 2011

Areas Affected:

Northern England - T, Central Britain - W

Synopsis:

A broad area of low pressure will continue to persist across much of Britain with an upper trough axis positioned through Central Britain. A small area of low pressure and associated fronts will move near SW Britain during the afternoon.

Discussion:

Yet another day of low pressure will allow for large scale ascent across the f'cast area. The surface low will be centred near the Humber estuary at midday corresponding to the upper trough axis with 500mb temperatures around -19C. Weak SBCAPE values (300j/kg) and modest ELT of only -25C will mean that updraft depth may only make it to 20-25K feet, limiting potential for thunder activity. Surface heating combined with the Pennines will be the main low level drivers for convection and will generate a few heavy showers toward midday with some isolated thunder likely during the afternoon. DLS and LLS are very weak thus organised updraft / downdrafts are unlikely, however with convergence near the low centre it is possible some of the strongest updrafts could briefly produce weak funnels.

Main threats: Localised heavy downpours, isolated CGs

TORRO have no warnings and SkyWarn have this overview:

Severe Weather Risk: Moderate

More heavy and thundery showers for Scotland, and Northern and Eastern England, with persistent rain overnight. Elsewhere cloudy and cool.

Charts and indicators:

CAPE maybe there later:

I guess there is an area around the North York Moors that has a little potential, but it dosen't seem as well defined as yesterday to me.

What do people that know think?

[shuggee]

BBC forecast at 09:27 was positively enthusiastic about northern England's storm potential - to the north and east of Leeds. "30-40mm of rain in torrential thundery downpours" was the expression used.

[Harry]

Perplexed by the terms used by some of the BBC weather forecasters...."vicious thunderstorms", "torrential thunderstorms", "intense thunderstorms"

Sorry, but just because showers/storms are slow moving, doesn't make them vicious, intense or otherwise.

The storm outbreak on the 28th June, and the isolated storms which broke out further N and W on the 27th, were vicious and intense

Emotive language IMO to highlight a flashing flooding (or more significant flooding) risk isn't helpful IMO...there's little to suggest the downpours will even be electrified.

Edited July 20, 2011 by Harry

[Nick F]

06z GFS suggests some weak CAPE developing across North Yorks this afternoon, so perhaps risk of some thunder here amongst the general heavy showers developing across northern and some eastern counties of England through the day.

Tomorrow looks a better chance for Wales, central and southern England for some storms to develop, as we see a trough across northern England in the morning reach southern UK in the early afternoon, as per fax:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVG89.png

[Purplepixii]

I agree Harry. In fact a recent survey indicated that the general public were very peed off with weather reporters using emotive language such as "barbeque weather" etc and the general consensus was that people would prefer to just know what the weather is forecast, not what the M.O./BBC/Weather forecaster thinks! Anyway, back on topic, no storms forecast down here boohoo

[grab my graupel]

06z GFS suggests some weak CAPE developing across North Yorks this afternoon, so perhaps risk of some thunder here amongst the general heavy showers developing across northern and some eastern counties of England through the day.

Excellent! I missed out on Yesterday's storms, which paid Scarborough a visit instead, so it could be my turn today

If today's showers are anything like yesterday's, I'll be happy with that.

Cheers, Nick

[Alex95]

Torrential rain now. Getting rather sick of the garage flooding this Summer!

EDIT: This is incredible, I wouldn't be surprised to hear thunder soon!

Edited July 20, 2011 by alza

[topsweep1506]

Same here ALZA torrential rain here in Cramlington

TONY

[Harsh Climate]

Perplexed by the terms used by some of the BBC weather forecasters...."vicious thunderstorms", "torrential thunderstorms", "intense thunderstorms"

Sorry, but just because showers/storms are slow moving, doesn't make them vicious, intense or otherwise.

The storm outbreak on the 28th June, and the isolated storms which broke out further N and W on the 27th, were vicious and intense

Emotive language IMO to highlight a flashing flooding (or more significant flooding) risk isn't helpful IMO...there's little to suggest the downpours will even be electrified.

lol, you have a go at the bbc using the term 'vicious' out of term, yet you have done the very same thing... The storms on the 28th june wern't viciouse. A viciouse storm is one that may result in many losses of life, baseball size hail, deadly lightning, or tornado outbreaks....

[Costa Del Fal]

Torrential rain now. Getting rather sick of the garage flooding this Summer!

EDIT: This is incredible, I wouldn't be surprised to hear thunder soon!

Your area must have had a huge amount of rain from torrential downpours recently. Looks very slow moving on the radar. Wouldnt mind a bit of rain down here but its been quite dry again recently apart from the other day but wasnt that heavy.

[grab my graupel]

Nice heavy shower just arrived here

[NorthYorksWeather]

Excellent! I missed out on Yesterday's storms, which paid Scarborough a visit instead, so it could could be my turn today

If today's showers are anything like yesterday's, I'll be happy with that.

Cheers, Nick

Hi Brian, fingers crossed for today! Shame we missed out yesterday after the potential and amount of rain. Have you seen any thunderstorms yet this year, only one ive seen was in Barcelona, not had one here in York since 2009 so heres hoping for today

Hope your well

Vizzy2004

[P-M]

Yes but despite the torrential rain which I am sure we can all do without - there is not a massive risk of thunderstorms today IMHO. To be honest it's like a mid winters day out there dull horrible miserable and nothing to write home about. Flooded roads are hardly anything to big up now are they?? Heavy thunderstorms are great but this rubbish outside is certainly not going to get my vote - Rant Over!!! lol

Your area must have had a huge amount of rain from torrential downpours recently. Looks very slow moving on the radar. Wouldnt mind a bit of rain down here but its been quite dry again recently apart from the other day but wasnt that heavy.

Yes the NE has, and secretly between you and me I think Alza enjoys a bit of flooding now and again

*Joke Alza* but seriously not nice out there today!

[NorthYorksWeather]

The showers coming off the North Sea seem to be intensifying as they hit the Yorkshire Wolds and North York Moors, the complete opposite of showers in winter which seem to die out as they head inland, any experts around to explain why?

[grab my graupel]

Hi Brian, fingers crossed for today! Shame we missed out yesterday after the potential and amount of rain. Have you seen any thunderstorms yet this year, only one ive seen was in Barcelona, not had one here in York since 2009 so heres hoping for today

Hope your well

Vizzy2004

Hi Vizzy, I fine thanks - hope you are too

Yes, I've done OK for storms this year. We've had about three at my actual location, and I've seen a couple when I've visited surrounding areas. It was only a few weeks ago when Malton school was closed after it was struck by lightning. Unfortunately, I didn't witness it myself, but my son was there at the time

Brian

[sunny scunny]

A chance of heavy showers here from around 3pm onwards,but just dry and cloudy so far.Showers developing near the coast though.

Edited July 20, 2011 by sunny scunny

[Thundery wintry showers]

Perplexed by the terms used by some of the BBC weather forecasters...."vicious thunderstorms", "torrential thunderstorms", "intense thunderstorms"

My parents noted this over the last couple of days- they were expecting severe thunderstorms across the whole North East after watching the BBC forecasts and I was pretty perplexed by what they were saying as I only ever saw potential for sharp showers and scattered thunderstorms, and the odd localised severe one.

I agree Harry. In fact a recent survey indicated that the general public were very peed off with weather reporters using emotive language such as "barbeque weather" etc and the general consensus was that people would prefer to just know what the weather is forecast, not what the M.O./BBC/Weather forecaster thinks!

I've thought that for many years (ITV always used to be guilty of this, ever since I was a young child, while BBC didn't do much of this during the 1990s but progressively stepped it up during the 2000s as part of the general dumbing down- I think the Met Office, though, still keep it to a relative minimum despite their BBQ summer comment in 2009).

Cleadon is dry and cloudy with a lot of low cloud off the North Sea- I think the wind off the sea will keep it mostly dry here by suppressing convection, but since the low cloud is also affecting the inland areas that are getting the torrential downpours (hardly "sunshine and showers") I don't feel that I'm really missing out on much.

[Harry]

lol, you have a go at the bbc using the term 'vicious' out of term, yet you have done the very same thing... The storms on the 28th june wern't viciouse. A viciouse storm is one that may result in many losses of life, baseball size hail, deadly lightning, or tornado outbreaks....

Unless I'm mistaken, people were killed as a result of the June 28th storms, numerous properties in Kent and London alone caught fire as a result of lightning strikes, flash flooding, treacherous transport conditions in addition to widespread disruption - branches were brought down, there was certainly debris about, very poor visibility and at times very strong wind gusts....I believe the term used on June 28th by the BBC was thundery showers and torrential downpours!

My post refers to the BBC's disproportionate use of language - the weather across the NE is certainly not "vicious" or "intense"...slow moving, torrential downpours likely to cause flash flooding and treacherous travelling conditions...if the conditions in the North East are "vicious", then June 28th storms were cataclysmic in comparison! That's not even going into the fact they considered June 28th to be "thundery showers" whereas the events in the NE are characterised as "thunderstorms", let alone "vicious thunderstorms"

Would like to point, while on topic, that John Hammond (who I have given stick to in the past) has improved a lot IMO over the past few months!

Edited July 20, 2011 by Harry

[Summer Sun]

The heavens have opened in Darlington very heavy rain is falling and it's very dark too off to put my light on.

[Craigers]

After yesterdays storm that had 4 cg's down the road from work was a nice surprise! looks like the storms are pivoting inland and going to reach peakdestrict eastern edge by early afternoon? could get interesting!

[nimbus20]

A chance of heavy showers here from around 3pm onwards,but just dry and cloudy so far.Showers developing near the coast though.

Nothing here so far mate. Its cloudy but getting a darker hue to the sky now, so maybe something is brewing, even if only just a shower.

Nice heavy shower just arrived here

Good afternoon Lord Graupels Hope you and Lady Graupels are keeping well.

Can we have our shower back now please? :lol:

[P-M]

UKWW:

UKww Flash Warning for Heavy Rain over Northeast England

Issued Wed 20/07/2011 1100BST

Areas affected - Northeast England

Valid from: 1100BST - 2100BST Wednesday 20th July 2011

General evolution: A broad upper trough is continuing a slow departure to the NE, leaving a complex northerly surface flow. There has already been a few days of convective rainfall over the watch area, most recently overnight into this morning. This is set to continue today, with the intensity moving slowly south.

Rainfall totals of up to 40mm are expected over the forecast period, with possible slow moving heavy showers which may lead to local flooding.

Please listen to local radio/television broadcasts for up to date information on travel conditions.

UKww will monitor this watch and update/upgrade when necessary.

Issued by GEJ for UKww, 1100BST 20/07/2011