Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Don]

11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could there might be signs of 'less' wintry weather on the way, i.e 21C!  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Could there might be signs of 'less' wintry weather on the way, i.e 21C!  

Not sure how you can have more wintry weather when you have not had any already??

[Don]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure how you can have more wintry weather when you have not had any already??

Absolutely!!  I would understand it if they said something along the lines of "could there be wintry weather on the way?" or "will WINTER finally arrive?!"

Edited January 25, 2020 by Don

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mainly mild with spells of wet, windy weather

_________________________________

Wednesday 29 January – Sunday 2 February

Staying unsettled but milder by the weekend

So far, the week has been rather chilly and unsettled. We've seen snow in some areas, these mainly across Scotland but with wintry showers as far south as the moors of Devon. There have been a couple of cold nights too. The main change expected for the second half of the week is that we expect it to become milder. This is due to winds coming mainly from the west and south-west, pushing warmer air across the country. It will be most noticeable this weekend when daytime temperatures could reach 13 or 14 Celsius in the warmest parts of the country. That's much warmer than the highs of 6 to 8 Celsius we saw earlier this week. The nights will become less cold too so there won't be much risk of a frost on Friday, Saturday or Sunday night.

One thing that won't change is the unsettled weather. Low pressure remains in the driving seat for much of the rest of the week. We expect a series of weather systems to move across the UK between now and Sunday. Each system will bring showers and rain, with western parts of the country very wet. However, with temperatures on the rise the risk of snow away from the mountains decreases. There will also be fresh to strong winds at times, and some areas of the UK could see gales, most likely Scotland.

Monday 3 February – Sunday 9 February

Wet and windy at first, drier and colder later

The first full week of February looks like starting mild, wet and windy. Low pressure will remain close by on Monday, so it looks windy with showers and longer spells of rain across the country. It will also be a little milder than normal for the time of year. Tuesday will see low pressure shifting eastwards towards the North Sea, but it will take time to do so and another unsettled and windy day looks likely. It does look less mild on Tuesday. The big changes to the weather are expected around the middle of next week. As our low pressure system finally shifts off into Scandinavia, a spell of northerly winds will develop. There will be quite a dramatic drop in temperatures compared to the preceding weekend, and we can expect a return to overnight frosts.

Snow showers look likely for northern Scotland and wintry showers may push onto North Sea coasts of England too. We'll also start to see a ridge of high pressure building to the south-west of the UK around mid-week. As this ridge extends northwards it will cut off the flow of weather from the Atlantic, giving us drier and calmer weather for the end of the week. The main uncertainty is exactly how quickly and how far the ridge extends northwards. There is a chance that it doesn't cut off the Atlantic weather completely or does so for only a short time. That would mean that next weekend is wetter and windier than we expected, but it would be less cold too.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 23 February

A return to unsettled but mild weather

The drier, calmer but cooler weather we expect at the end of next week is only expected to be short-lived. Through the second and third weeks of February, we will likely see low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic again. This means a return to wetter, windier but milder weather. Whilst all areas will be affected by the more unsettled weather, the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to be over north-western parts of the UK. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland could see well-above average rainfall and perhaps gales at times. Overall, it is expected to be milder than normal for late winter with temperatures either near or above average. There should be a lack of any significant or widespread snow. Night frosts are likely to be less frequent than usual too.

Since December, we've seen a pattern for the unsettled weather to be punctuated by calmer, drier spells every week to ten days. That looks as though it could happen again later this month. There are indications of a ridge of high pressure starting to build later in the month, so it may be that there is another short break from the unsettled weather before we reach the end of February. It may even become chillier for a time, but we should note that at this stage we don't see any indications of any sustained cold weather setting in.

Further ahead

The next update should take us to the end of Meteorological Winter, but will there be any wintry weather in the forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Met office 10 Day trend

Next 10 Days

 

Changeable
Mild
Breezy

Next week

High pressure
Cold plunge possible
Uncertainty

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

Australian bushfires: State of emergency declared in Canberra as blazes worsen

 

Quote

A state of emergency has been declared in Australia's capital Canberra and surrounding areas, as strong winds and soaring heat threatens to send a huge nearby bushfire out of control. Yet another heatwave is spreading across the country, which is expected to spark more dangerous bushfires in a region already devastated by the blazes.

http://news.sky.com/story/australian-bushfires-state-of-emergency-declared-in-canberra-as-blazes-worsen-11922279

 

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Briefly chilly next week
• Mild Atlantic winds return
• Time running out for ‘coldies’?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/01/31/john-hammonds-month-ahead-winter-over-before-began/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mainly mild with spells of wet, windy weather

_________________________________

Saturday 1 February – Sunday 9 February

Unsettled and mild, but with a short cold spell

After a cold start to the week when we had snow in some parts of the country, temperatures have been on the up. It has been rather unsettled with showers and rain affecting the country most days of the week. This weekend won't see much change to this pattern. Both Saturday and Sunday will see showers and rain moving across the country. It will be windy in some areas too, so despite the mild air we're currently in it might feel a bit chilly. Monday and Tuesday will see a deep low pressure system moving close to or across the north of the country. This system will bring very strong winds to some areas - gales, severe gales are likely, and it could become stormy over Scotland. There will be showers and rain too.

As the low pressure system shifts eastwards, we will see a spell of northerly or north-westerly winds developing. It will become colder in all areas, and with the strength of the wind on Tuesday it will feel chilly. At the same time as the low shifts eastwards, we'll see high pressure building to the south-west then west of the country. This will drift overhead on Wednesday, which looks dry and calm, especially compared to Tuesday, but still rather cool. Later in the week, the ridge of high pressure will decline, and we'll see a return to westerly winds. Then end of the week looks milder but windier and wetter. There's even a chance of another spell of very windy weather next weekend.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 16 February

Very wet and very windy ... but still mild

The trend towards wetter and windier weather at the end of next week is expected to continue. We expect a powerful jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean to drive deep low pressure systems into the UK. The upshot of this is that the week looks like a wet and very windy week. There will be the risk of one or more spells of stormy weather, and disruptive winds are perhaps more likely than we've seen so far this winter. Showers and heavy rain are expected too, especially but not exclusively in the west. Given that as the ground has not had a chance to dry out from the very wet autumn and early winter, there is likely to be a threat of flooding.

The other notable feature is that our winds will be coming in from a relatively warm Atlantic Ocean. This means that it will remain milder than normal for the time of year.
We haven't seen a lot of cold weather this winter, and it looks rather unlikely that we'll see anything in this part of the month, except for very brief spells of something cooler between weather systems. Sleet or snow is possible on high ground in the north, but we don't expect any significant snow to lower levels.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 1 March

Unsettled at first but calming down later

At first, there won't be too much change to the weather after mid-month. Atlantic weather systems will continue to move in, bringing more very unsettled, perhaps stormy weather.
With the weather expected to remain wet with only short drier spells for any recovery, there will still be an increased risk of flooding. Strong winds are expected to continue across the country, probably causing some disruption too. It will remain mild. After such an unsettled month, it will be some relief to see that the weather should start to quieten down towards the end of the month. This is likely to be the result of high pressure building from the south as the jet stream drifts northwards.

It does mean that the south of the UK will see an improvement in the weather first, whilst the north remains unsettled for longer. Western parts of Scotland may stay a little wetter than average until quite close to the end of the month. It is too early to say whether we'll see another spell of "anticyclonic gloom", with a lot of cloud, mist and murk but it is a possibility. However, high pressure could also bring settled, clear, crisp conditions which might allow a few cold nights - similar to what we'll get at the start of February. We still don't see any signs of any prolonged cold and widespread snowy weather developing. In fact, one theme that does continue right through until the end of February and start of March is the mildness. Temperatures are most likely to remain above normal for the time of year through the last couple of weeks of the month.

Further ahead

We'll update the details of the stormy weather we expect around the middle of February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Dry, hot summers could become 'norm' in Scotland

Quote

 

Dry, hot summers with temperatures of about 30C are set to become the norm in Scotland, a new study suggests. Researchers say the country should prepare for more like the record-breaking summer of 2018. It was unusually hot that summer, with a near record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton in Renfrewshire. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut substantially, researchers say every summer could be like 2018 towards the end of the century.

The report by researchers from Edinburgh and Oxford universities and Met Office staff analyses UK climate projections. They suggest there is a substantial increase in the likelihood of temperatures reaching 2018's levels between now and 2050. And they say the country should start planning now to deal with more frequent higher temperatures brought about as a result of climate change.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51347881?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social

[Summer Sun]

'Lost' winters confuse wildlife and put species under threat - report

Quote

 

Britain's wildlife is being confused by "lost" winters, potentially putting some species at risk, conservationists have warned. Nature's Calendar, which asks members of the public to record signs of the changing seasons, says butterflies, newts and blackbirds have been spotted building nests months before they usually do.

It says its analysis of the conditions in 2019 found that all but one of the 50 spring events the scheme tracks were early last year because of higher temperatures during the winter months. As a result of milder weather, many species are getting muddled and losing their seasonal cues, according to the Woodland Trust which runs the scheme.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/lost-winters-confuse-wildlife-and-put-species-under-threat-report-11925443

[qwertyK]

What I don't get is how some "scientists" predicted one of the coldest winters in 30 years and how wrong they were. It was all over the papers in september/autumn time, and not just the tabloids. 

 

And also, how people like James Madden continue to get away with ridiculous forecasts like "snow after snow" event promised since around november..,.

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A spell of stormy weather to come

_________________________________

Wednesday 5 February – Sunday 9 February

Calm until the weekend, then very unsettled

High pressure is currently sat across the UK with most parts of the country having a spell of dry and calm weather. This is expected to continue until the end of this week with a big change arriving this weekend. The weekend sees westerly winds reasserting themselves, with weather systems coming in from the Atlantic, driven by a very strong jet stream. Saturday will be a windy day with rain crossing the country.

There should be a brief spell of drier weather later, but it won't last. The rest of the weekend will be very windy with gales and severe gales quite widely, and the risk of stormy weather on Sunday. There will also be widespread showers and rain, some of which will be heavy. Some surprisingly mild air will cross the country on Sunday but, given the strength of the wind, it won't feel that mild.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 16 February

Very wet and very windy ... but still mild

There's increasing confidence that the wetter and windier weather expected this weekend will persist into next week. The powerful jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean will continue to drive deep depressions towards and across the UK throughout much of the week. There will be a risk of gales for many areas, and we could see some stormy weather. There will be a lot of rain too as fronts sweep across the country, with blustery showers likely in between. Northern and western parts of the UK are likely to see the heaviest rain, but it looks very wet in all areas. Given how wet the ground is from rain in the autumn and earlier this winter, there may be a risk of flooding.

Whilst much of next week looks milder than normal, a brief colder spell on Monday and Tuesday is looking increasingly likely. It looks cold enough for there to be snow showers in some parts of the country. Scotland and Northern Ireland look most likely to see snow, this mainly on hills but possibly to lower levels at times. This may cause some travel disruption. Northern England and Wales could also see snow showers on high ground. The rest of the UK is unlikely to see any significant wintry weather but could be rather chilly. It looks milder from midweek onwards, so the risk of snow greatly decreases, but the heavy rain and strong winds are expected to continue through to the end of the week.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 1 March

Unsettled at first but calming down later

There won't be too much change to the weather immediately after mid-month, with further wet and windy weather looking likely. However, we do expect it to become calmer and drier the closer we get to the end of February and start of March. At first, Atlantic low pressure systems will continue to push in from the west, these bringing spells of wet and windy weather. It will remain milder than normal for the time of year, although with some cooler intervals possible between weather systems. High pressure is expected to build from the south as we head later into the month. This will bring calmer and drier weather to more and more of the UK. By the end of February it is looking a lot drier and calmer than it does for the middle of the month. In fact, only the north of Scotland looks likely to see rainfall above normal, with all other areas having rainfall near or below normal.

There is some uncertainty over how quickly high pressure will shift northwards. A little slower than we expect and it will remain wetter and windier for longer. Conversely there is a chance that the ridge of high pressure will move a lot further north than we expect. If this happens then whilst it will be drier and calmer than average across all areas, there may be the chance of some cooler easterly winds across some areas. This is a fairly low risk. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal although there will be more of a chance of some cooler nights later in the month.

Further ahead

Will calmer conditions prevail or can we expect more wet and windy weather to start March?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Australia bushfires: Biggest rainfall in 20 years delivers much-needed relief

Quote

 

Heavy downpours have brought relief to wildfire-ravaged parts of Australia - reducing the number of current blazes by a third. New South Wales Rural Fire Service said firefighters were "over the moon" as the number of bushfires across the state fell from 60 to 42 in a single day. But the wet weather - the biggest rainfall in almost 20 years - has brought its own risks, with officials warning of flash floods and landslides.

Sydney alone was expected to receive as much as 130mm (5ins) of rain in the 24 hours to Saturday morning - the biggest one-day rainfall in 18 years - according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/australia-bushfires-biggest-rainfall-in-20-years-delivers-much-needed-relief-11928058?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Stormy start
• Quieter from mid-month
• Drier end to winter

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/07/john-hammonds-month-ahead-winter-storm-before-calm/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A stormy weekend with unsettled weather following

_________________________________

Saturday 8 February – Sunday 16 February

A stormy weekend followed by a windy & cooler week

This weekend will start off a bit milder than recent days with a fresher southwest wind bringing in some sub-tropical air from the Atlantic. It will be a mostly dry start to the day with a few showers for western and northern areas, but this is just the calm before the storm. A front will arrive in the late afternoon and evening for Scotland, North England, and western areas bringing heavy rain and an increase in winds.

By Sunday, Storm Ciara will arrive from the west, bringing widespread bands of heavy rain and some very strong winds across the UK. The good news is that the strong jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will push Storm Ciara through quickly. By sunset on Sunday the cold front will clear away from Southeast England, but scattered squally showers are likely to follow behind it.

Winds will ease heading into next week, but this is a relative term here. Monday and Tuesday will still be quite windy very widely, but especially along the southern and western coasts. This will come with a biting westerly wind bringing in some colder air off the North Atlantic, so showers will bring a risk of snow even to low levels for Scotland, Wales, and North England. Possibly even into the Midlands as well, but confidence is lower on this as showers may struggle to get into the Midlands.

Another low pressure system on Thursday will bring some rain more widely, but also some slightly milder air as well so snow chances decrease. A ridge of high pressure on Friday and into Saturday should finally bring a respite from the winds, but its effects will likely be fleeting as things turn unsettled again by Sunday.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 23 February

Changeable weather with some dry spells. Mild

The weather pattern is likely to be unsettled through the final full week of February, but with a slight change from what is expected the previous week. The jet stream, which was very strong when it brought it Storm Ciara, is likely to be a bit weaker and more undulating towards the end of February. What this means is that the weather will be more changeable, with weather fronts mixed with some dry, calm days under high pressure. These features will also tend to be more transient rather than permanent.

The end result is that fronts will often bring some rain and winds to much of the UK, but between frontal systems it will be dry and briefly a bit cooler. High pressure is likely to build into Europe, and as fronts ebb away a ridge of this high pressure will find its way into the UK. This will happen most frequently in the south and east, which western and northern areas being more consistently wet and breezy.

Temperatures are likely to be a bit above average, especially in the south, with perhaps one or two chillier days where the temperature dips to nearer the norm. Occasionally there may be some overnight frosts and there is a slight risk of lowland snow in Scotland on some of these cooler days. Overall confidence in high to medium with some strong signals for the forecast models. There is high confidence that we will not see any significant cold outbreaks.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 8 March

Unsettled, but turning calmer later in March.

The tail end of February and first week of March look to follow along much where mid-February leaves off; unsettled, changeable weather with some dry spells at times. However, a gradual change is expected as we head into March, with high pressure in Europe likely to become stronger and more influential here in the UK.

This means that as February ends and March begins, the dry spells in the southern and eastern parts of the country will tend to become the norm, rather than occasional features. Fronts will have a harder time reaching the southeast, and rainy and windy spells will become fewer and further between. Things will likely stay wet and windy for northern areas, but western England and Wales will likely dry out too.

As the high pressure become the more dominant weather pattern across northwest Europe, the warmer, sub-tropical air from the southwest will be cut off. This will mean that temperatures will likely be a bit less mild than in the middle of February, but likely still slightly above average. Under clearer skies and calmer winds with high pressure around, there is a stronger likelihood that we will see some frosty mornings.

Confidence is medium for this week as we start to see some differences in how strong certain forecast models what to make the high pressure. There is a chance that things may stay a bit more unsettled and milder, but only a small chance at the moment.

Further ahead

In the wake of Storm Ciara we will look that the impacts to the weather pattern as see if we can lock down the strength of high pressure heading into March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Multiple accidents due to heavy snowfall in parts of Norh-East

Multiple accidents and bus service disruption in County Durham as snow falls heavily in parts of region

WWW.THENORTHERNECHO.CO.UK

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Live updates as snow causes delays on roads in the North-East and North Yorkshire.

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times - wettest in the north

_________________________________

Wednesday 12 February – Sunday 16 February

Staying unsettled albeit gradually turning milder

Wednesday will see a persistence of the recent chilly, windy and showery weather. Some of the showers will be wintry in the north and west of the UK with further snow over hills. Thursday then looks set to be unsettled with showers and longer outbreaks of rain. Parts of southern Scotland and northern England will have a threat of settling snow for a time. A temporary ridge of high pressure should then bring drier weather for Thursday night but with a widespread frost.

A change appears likely on Friday as winds swing around to a southerly direction, bringing milder conditions for most. However, the north and west are likely to become wet and windy. Another unsettled and windy weekend to come. Outbreaks of heavy rain look like spreading from southwest to northeast across much of the country. The rain is likely to be accompanied by strong or locally gale force winds. However, Saturday will be quite widely mild. Turning chillier in the north on Sunday.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 23 February

Wet and windy at times, most frequently in the north

Next week, the unsettled theme to the weather is likely to continue for many. Low pressure areas passing to the north will bring bands of rain from west to east across the UK at times. The rain is likely to be occasionally accompanied by strong winds. Wettest conditions are likely to be over Scotland, Northern Ireland and Cumbria with rainfall amounts well-above normal there. However, there will also be some drier, brighter and calmer interludes. Indications are for the best of any settled weather to be in the middle part of the week and over southern Britain. Temperatures are likely to be often near or a little above the seasonal average. A lower risk of snow compared to this week with any snow mainly confined to upland areas of Scotland.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 8 March

Briefly drier, then wet and windy again

The final week of February should see a subtle change in the weather. Outbreaks of rain and strong winds should become less frequent as high pressure approaches from the south at times. The south-eastern half of the UK should see the best of any lengthier dry and calm weather. However, there will be a risk of some patchy mist and fog during the nights and mornings here. Further north and west, it should become less wet but still with some rain at times.

As we head into March, there are signs of a return to wetter and windier conditions from the west. Again, Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see the most frequent rain. However, England and Wakes are expected to have rain and brisk winds at times as well. Overall, a relatively mild outlook with winds often from the west or south-west. Any colder interludes are likely to be relatively short-lived. The main uncertainty in the forecast is how widespread the wettest and windiest of the weather will be. Currently, Scotland and Northern Ireland look like having the most frequent rainfall but there is a risk the wettest weather shifts further south than expected.

Further ahead

It currently looks wet and windy at times but relatively mild. We will take another look to see if there are any indications of any colder weather to end the winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Warmest winter in 120 years turns French ski resort into ghost town

Quote

 

A French ski resort has been forced to close its ski runs in mid-season as there has been "no snow" for a second year running. The daytime temperature at the Le Mourtis resort in the Pyrenees mountains was above 10C (50F) earlier this week - a likely effect of climate change. It comes as the country's national weather service, Meteo France, says the last time France experienced a January this mild was in 1900.

Local restaurateurs and hoteliers at Le Mourtis say they are already suffering from the impact of fewer visitors. "Skiing? No one today can guarantee it," said Francois Gillaizeau, who manages Tuc de l'Etang, a hotel and restaurant with a shop that rents out leisure gear.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/french-ski-resort-closes-slopes-over-no-snow-for-second-year-in-a-row-11932955?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

[Summer Sun]

Met office 10 day trend

Next 10 days

More wind and rain
Storm Dennis
Less stormy next week

Days 7 to 10

Sun and showers
Then more wind and rain
Less stormy

 

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Chillier in the wake of ‘Dennis’
• Computers say more wind and rain
• Confidence very low!

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/14/john-hammonds-month-ahead-d-dennis-s-spring/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times - wettest in the north

_________________________________

Saturday 15 February – Sunday 23 February

Another wet and very windy weekend to come

The weekend weather will be dominated by Storm Dennis, which will bring severe gales and heavy rain to the UK. Saturday will be a windy day countrywide and there will be widespread showers and rain. Storm Dennis will remain nearby for the rest of the weekend. There will be little respite overnight or on Sunday, with gales and severe gales expected to continue, and with further heavy showers and rain expected. Given recent heavy rain, the ground is still very wet, so there is a risk of flooding this weekend.

It took a couple of days for winds to die down after Storm Ciara moved through last weekend. We'll see a similar pattern with Storm Dennis. By this, we mean that whilst Monday is not expected to be as windy as this weekend, it will still be a very windy day. Gale force winds are possible, and there will be frequent blustery showers. There will be the risk of snow on high ground in the north of the UK, especially later on Monday and overnight as cold air moves in.

Tuesday will be another showery day with the chance of some snow in the north. It will be windy but not as windy as Monday. Wednesday should be less cold, less windy and less showery. However, Thursday should bring a return to wetter and windier weather as the next Atlantic weather system moves through. The rest of next week looks changeable. Atlantic weather systems are likely to affect the country, but there are some indications that the south of the UK might be a little drier and calmer than it has been.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 1 March

Less windy with rain mainly in the north

The final week of February should see a subtle change in the weather. We still expect Atlantic weather systems to affect the UK, but less frequently than we have been seeing. This will be because a ridge of high pressure centred over Europe is expected to expand northwards, this in turn deflecting the track of the Atlantic lows northwards. There is a little uncertainty over exactly how far north the ridge of high pressure will extend, and this has a knock-on effect on winds and rain across the country. However, it should be less wet and less windy for the UK as a whole.

There will still be some rain, this mainly over the north of the country where it may become windy at times. The south of the country should become drier and calmer, although don't be surprised if there is still a spell or two of wet weather. As we've seen for much of the winter, temperatures will be near or a little above normal for the time of year. However, with winds likely to be coming in from the north-west at times there will be some spells of cooler weather.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 15 March

Briefly drier, then wet and windy again

The first working week of March will bring little change to the overall pattern seen at the end of February. High pressure should limit the impact of Atlantic weather systems, so it looks drier and calmer than normal in most areas. Just the north of the UK, mainly Scotland but perhaps Northern Ireland, are likely to see rainfall near normal, perhaps a little above normal locally

As we move towards the middle of the month it looks as though high pressure will either decline southwards or start to drift eastwards. The upshot of this is that we would see rainfall nearer normal across the UK, although still with wettest areas of the country being in the north and west. A similar pattern is expected with winds - northern and west parts look most likely to see windy weather whilst the south and east remain relatively calm.

One thing that doesn't seem to change much in March is that it still looks warmer than normal. We do think there could be the occasional cooler spell but at the moment there are no indications of any prolonged cold weather before the end of winter.

Further ahead

Will there be another spell of very windy weather before we get to the end of February?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

More wind and rain to come, but drier early March

_________________________________

Wednesday 19 February – Sunday 23 February

Staying wet and windy

We've seen a lot of exceptionally wet and windy weather recently and we don't expect a major change to this during the rest of this week or the coming weekend. Our weather will continue to come in from the west, with low pressure systems moving towards or across the UK from the Atlantic. Thursday will see a cold front sweeping south-eastwards across the UK. This front will bring a spell of heavy rain and squally winds as it moves through. It could also bring some thunder. Showers following in behind this front will also be heavy and locally thundery. Snow showers are possible on high ground in the northwest of the UK.

Friday brings a split in the weather, with very wet and very windy weather in the north, drier and less windy conditions in the south. The weekend looks very windy again. On Saturday the strongest winds are likely to be in the north. There will be showers there too, these heavy and blustery and likely to bring snow on high ground. The south will be less windy and drier. A switch on Sunday a low pressure system tracking across the UK brings strong winds and rain to the south. The north of the country should be less windy but with showers.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 1 March

Further spells of wet and windy weather

The final few days of February should see the start of a slight change in the weather. We still expect Atlantic weather systems to affect the UK, so spells of wet and windy weather still look likely. However, there should be a better chance of drier and calmer spells in some parts of the country. There is a little bit of uncertainty over the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. A front is expected to lie across or close to the UK. A low pressure system could develop on this front, and this would mean another round of wet and windy weather. The main uncertainty is the position and track of any developing low, which weather models have been having a bit of trouble pinning down.

There is slightly higher confidence that we will see another weather system moving through on Wednesday and Thursday, however, we should see high pressure starting to build from the south and southwest. This won't have a huge impact on our weather at first. If anything, it will tend to make winds veer northwesterly so it looks a little colder at the end of the week. We should also start to see some spells of drier and calmer weather in the south, later in the week, but the ridge of high pressure should be more of a feature during March.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 15 March

Becoming calmer and drier

High pressure is expected to be more of an influence during the first half of March. It will tend to expand northwards across Europe, shifting the track of Atlantic low pressure systems northwards. This means two things. First, the south of the UK will become drier and calmer. Some spells of wet and windy weather are possible, but there should be some decent dry periods too.

The north of the UK will continue to be affected by low pressure systems and will remain wet and windy, although the heaviest rain will tend to become more limited to Scotland, and winds shouldn't be quite as strong. One thing that has remained a constant in our forecast for March is the temperature. As we've seen for most of the last month or so, it looks warmer than normal. There could be the occasional cooler spell but at the moment there are no indications of any prolonged cold weather before the end of winter.

Further ahead

More detail on the forecast to start March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Yet more stormy weather
• Colder theme next week
• No clarity as spring approaches!

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/21/john-hammonds-month-ahead-enough-is-enough/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Further wet and windy weather at times

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Saturday 22 February – Sunday 1 March

Often wet and windy. Chilly at times.

A wet and windy outlook for the coming week. It will become quite chilly at times, too, with some wintry showers as well. Rainfall amounts are likely to remain above average, leading to further high river levels and an ongoing risk of some flooding in places. Another blustery weekend ahead this weekend. Saturday will be windy with cloud and rain clearing south-eastwards, leaving bright spells and showers. Wintry showers are likely in the north. Further rain for a time on Sunday, again clearing eastwards to leave brighter skies but with further wintry showers for western Scotland.

On Monday, a deep low pressure area in the north-east Atlantic looks like bringing another wet and windy spell of weather for many. Over Scotland, the rain could be preceded by a spell of snow, possibly even down to low levels. Gales are likely to develop over some northern parts of the UK too. The rest of next week will see a similar weather pattern. Further bands of rain and brisk winds are likely to spread from west to east across the country. There are also likely to be some brighter but chillier days with wintry showers. Accumulations of snow will be mainly over hills in the north and west of the UK.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 8 March

Further wet and windy spells.

The unsettled theme to our weather is likely to persist into the first week of March. Low pressure areas are expected to pass close to Scotland at times. These low pressure areas will bring further wet and windy conditions. The wettest and windiest weather is likely to be over the northern half of the UK, where rainfall amounts could be well-above average. It is also likely to become chilly at times with winds occasionally from the north or north-west, bringing some wintry showers. Any snow will be mainly confined to hills but could occasionally fall to low levels, with the highest risk for Scotland. Over the southern half of the UK, it will also be wet and windy at times. However, we may see one or two lengthier drier periods of weather later in the week. Just slight chances that drier and calmer weather prevails through much of the week.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 22 March

Turning drier in the south. Wet in the north.

As we move into the middle part of March, we should see a subtle change in the weather pattern. Low pressure areas still look like bringing some wet and breezy weather at times. However, these lows should lift a little further north. This means that the southern half of the UK should gradually see a change to lengthier periods of drier and calmer weather. Rainfall here should become less frequent, allowing river levels to lower and the flooding situation to improve. However, there are signs that frequent westerly flows will affect areas further north. These westerly flows will likely bring a persistence of wet and windy weather to the north. Western Scotland, in particular, could stay very wet. Temperatures look like tending to rise through mid-March with a reducing risk of snow. It looks like become mild at times.

Further ahead

There is still some uncertainty over the timing of any change to drier and calmer weather. We will take another look to see when and where we may see a drier trend.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook