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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Had to laugh when he said temperatures might 'only be 13c to 15c' on Sunday if it's cloudy

 

 

Yes, more like an April forecast

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Met office

10-day trend

High pressure
Mostly dry
Fog patches

Dry next week

Warm sunshine
Fog patches
Winds are crucial

Weekend after next

Hints of a change
Turning more changeable
Rain more likely

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild, settled end to February; unsettled in March

_________________________________________

Wednesday 20 February—Sunday 24 February

Rain in some areas at first, but turning drier.

Rather cloudy and damp during the middle of the week as a frontal system moves through, although the southern counties of England look like they will escape with mostly dry weather. The best of any bright spells will be along the south coast on Wednesday. Things will then be taking a turn towards drier and sunnier weather for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Some lingering cloud will stick around for parts of Scotland, but the majority of the UK will be mostly sunny and very mild in the afternoons, with foggy mornings. On Sunday, a very weak cold front will move into the northwest and bring some clouds and patchy light rain to mainly Scotland and Northern Ireland. Both Friday and Saturday look to be unseasonably warm days with widespread afternoon temperatures hitting 15 to 16 Celsius, with a few spots possibly seeing 17! Clear nights with light winds will get chilly in places, with morning lows in the low single figures for most. Many places in England and Wales will see crisp, foggy mornings following by mild, mostly sunny afternoons.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 3 March

Dry and settled at first, then turning unsettled.

High pressure is expected to stick around for the last few days of February, so we expect a continuation of the dry, settled and mild weather to end the month. However, Monday and Tuesday could be quite grey and murky for some, especially in the south and east, with morning mist or fog preceding afternoon overcast skies. Any breaks in the cloud will likely see very mild afternoon highs, but in places where the cloud remains through the afternoon it will feel a bit cooler. There is some uncertainty regarding the forecast for the start of March, but it is most likely that we will see the ridge of high pressure slowly declining to the south and east.

This is likely to be a gradual process, so don't expect a sudden change to stormy weather. We will more likely see an increasing risk of rain in the north and west of the country, mainly for Scotland and Northern Ireland and it is likely to become a little windier. However, on the whole the end of February and start of March are likely to be relatively dry, mild and calm. The most likely alternative to this slight shift to less settled weather is for the ridge of high pressure to remain close to the UK into the start of March, with little change to the dry, calm and mild weather. There is only a very small chance of any cool weather, and we don't see any significant indications of any cold weather at this stage.

Monday 4 March—Sunday 17 March

Briefly unsettled, then high pressure returns.

The transition from settled, calm weather to more unsettled conditions is expected to continue in early March.We are likely to see much more of a westerly pattern developing, with our weather mostly coming in from the Atlantic, bringing wetter, windier weather for most of the country, although central and eastern England may avoid the worst of it. Temperatures are likely to be close to average for the time of year or a little above average for most areas, although there is a slight chance that it could become relatively cool for the time of year if winds turn more north-westerly.

At this stage there does not appear to be any support for widespread, long-lived cold as we saw this time last year. The unsettled spell is likely to be relatively short-lived as we're already seeing indications that high pressure will start to build across northern Europe around the middle of March. In fact, there is a roughly 20% chance that the high pressure ridge could build in sooner than we expect, limiting the unsettled spell to just a few days. Once the high takes hold again, any rain will be pushed west, with only Northern Ireland and extreme western Scotland likely to be affected. The rest of the country will likely stay dry and calm, with temperatures near or just above normal for the time of year.

Next Update

Will high pressure remain in charge as we move through March?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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A year on from the Beast from the East, UK set for more record breaking temperatures

The UK could see its warmest ever February day this weekend, forecasters have said, just a year after the country shivered in the icy grip of the Beast from the East. Scotland has already enjoyed its warmest ever February day after the temperature reached 18.3C (64.94F) at Aboyne in Aberdeenshire on Thursday afternoon.

https://news.sky.com/story/a-year-on-from-the-beast-from-the-east-uk-set-for-more-record-breaking-temperatures-11644528

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Whilst parts of Britain and Ireland experience record warmth, parts of the deep South of the USA are getting record breaking snowfall....

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/winter-storm-brings-record-snowfall-to-parts-of-arizona-1.4307839

Flagstaff, Arizona is over 1000 miles further South than London.

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I’m not sure about the change to the met office website ......the bit I’m really unsure about is the written forecast which is still based on Thursday start point ..........

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Remembering the Beast from the East

As this winter draws near to a close, it's hard to believe that this time last year much of the nation was gripped by a severe spell of snow and low temperatures dubbed the Beast from the East. Much of winter 2018 was generally mild but things changed dramatically during the last week of February as the UK experienced a prolonged cold snap, with widespread heavy snow. It lasted for 10 days, and was compounded by the arrival of Storm Emma.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weatherwatchers/article/47356036/remembering-the-beast-from-the-east/

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UK weather: What a difference! One year after the Beast from the East

Record-breaking high temperatures are being set across Britain just a year after the Beast from the East blanketed the country in snow. One year ago today, Sky News reported on the coldest February in five years, with yellow and amber weather warnings in place across the country and predictions of anywhere between five and 15cm of snow. But different kinds of records are being broken this week, with the UK's first ever recorded winter temperature of more than 20C (68F)

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-what-a-difference-one-year-after-the-beast-from-the-east-11648495?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

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I havn`t seen much ramping in the papers about this warm spell this week.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning much wetter and breezier than recently

_________________________________________

Wednesday 27 February—Sunday 3 March

Turning unsettled and less mild than recently

Once any early low cloud or fog has cleared, Wednesday will be the last widely very mild and sunny day for a while. Temperatures will again rise well-above normal for late February with highs into the high teens Celsius for many southern and south-eastern areas of Britain, perhaps approaching 20 Celsius in a few spots. On Thursday, after a grey and misty start for many with early fog in the north and east, much of the UK will have a cloudier day. Showery rain will spread from the west over much of the southern half of the country but northern England and much of Scotland should escape largely dry.

It will be less mild than recently albeit with temperatures still a few degrees Celsius above what we might expect for late February.
Friday is also likely to have a widely dull and misty start with spots of drizzle in places. Many areas will then keep a lot of cloud through much of the day but it should turn brighter in places in the late afternoon. This weekend will then be unsettled and windy at times with showers and bands of rain sweeping eastwards across the UK. There is a risk of gales over north-western areas later on Saturday.

Monday 4 March—Sunday 10 March

Wet and windy at times.

The first full week of March looks like it will stay quite unsettled, with several fronts moving through, bringing rain and strong winds at times. In between the bands of rain, there should be some drier and brighter interludes but there are likely to be an absence of any prolonged dry and sunny periods of weather. Indications are for the wettest conditions to affect the south and west of the UK. The best of the drier and brighter spells are most likely to be over north-eastern areas. It will be much less mild than recently with temperatures mostly near or only a couple of degrees above the early March average. No significant or severe cold is likely, however.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 24 March

Unsettled initially, then drier weather returning

Low pressure will likely be the dominant weather pattern across the UK until the middle part of March. Therefore, we can expect some further wet and windy episodes of weather for a time with further showers and bands of rain spreading from the Atlantic. Again, the western and southern half of the UK appears to be most prone to the wet and windy conditions with the best of any drier and brighter periods of weather likely to be over north-eastern areas.

After mid-month (there is some uncertainty over the timing) we should see an area of high pressure re-building near to the UK. Therefore, drier and somewhat calmer conditions should begin to predominate again later in the month with wet and windy conditions becoming more confined to the far-north. Temperatures are likely to be variable but, overall, should be near or slightly above the average for March.

Next Update

We will take another look at the forecast for March to see if there are any stronger signals for the timing of when some spring sunshine will return.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Australia experiences hottest summer on record

Australia has experienced its hottest summer on record, according to the nation's Bureau of Meteorology. Hundreds of individual heat records were shattered across the country over the past three months. The warm weather - 2.14C above the long-term average - caused bushfires, blackouts and a rise in hospital admissions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-47410366?ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

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Met office

10 day trend

Back to normal
Low pressure
Wind, rain, hill snow

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wetter, breezier and cooler than recently

_________________________________________

Saturday 2 March—Sunday 10 March

Wet and windy at times. Turning chillier.

This weekend will be unsettled and windy at times. After a bright start for many, Saturday will see cloud and outbreaks of rain spreading from the west, accompanied by a strengthening south-westerly wind. On Sunday, further rain is likely to spread from the south-west with strong and gusty winds developing over parts of England and Wales. There is a risk of some snow mixed-in over upland areas of the north before it turns somewhat drier from the west on Sunday night. Temperatures will be lower than last weekend's but still a little above the seasonal average for most.

Through Monday and Tuesday, it will be breezy and feeling somewhat chillier with temperatures falling to around the seasonal average. There are likely to be showers at times, these most prolonged in the west and south. There is the potential for some wintry showers mixed-in over hills in the north. The remainder of next week is also expected to be chillier than recently with showers and some bands of rain spreading eastwards, accompanied by strong winds at times. Rain could be quite widespread over southern areas for a time during the middle part of the week.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 17 March

Wet and windy at times but not cold

The middle part of March is likely to see a persistence of westerly winds, bringing further showers and bands of rain from the Atlantic at times. It is likely to be breezy at times too with the risk of occasional gales, particularly in the north and north-west. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above the seasonal average, albeit with the most frequent rainfall likely in the west and north.

Temperatures are likely to be often near or slightly above the seasonal average - no significant or prolonged cold weather is currently anticipated. However, compared with the exceptional warmth of late February, it will still feel much cooler.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 31 March

Gradually becoming drier and calmer

We should see a gradual change in the weather through the latter part of March. The breezy and damp weather expected through the first half of the month is expected to give way to drier and calmer conditions, thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the south. The timing of this change is somewhat uncertain but outbreaks of rain and brisk winds should become less frequent than the preceding couple of weeks.

Daytime temperatures should recover too, rising above the seasonal average during any sunnier days. However, there will continue to be the risk of some chilly nights with occasional frost and fog. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure does not build as much as expected, which would allow a continuation of wetter and breezier conditions - this risk is highest for northern parts of the country.

Next Update

Can we still expect a return to some spring sunshine later in March? We will take another look in the next update.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted (edited)

Met Office "typical March weather" and BBC's 11th to 17th "Wet and windy but not cold" seems a bit at odds with the snow right across the UK seen here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=16&ech=204&carte=1

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk

I suppose they could all be right if it's light showery snow with a bit of warm sun inbetween.

 

Edited by Aleman

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet, breezy and cool at first; drier later

_________________________________________

Wednesday 6 March—Sunday 10 March

Wet and windy at times. Turning chillier.

The rest of this week will be wet and windy at times with bands of rain and showers spreading from west to east across the UK. Wednesday will be reasonably mild over England and Wales with at least a few bright spells developing for most. However, there will also be showers, accompanied by a brisk and gusty southerly wind. Some of these showers are likely to become heavy and thundery, particularly in the west and south. Scotland and Northern Ireland will stay somewhat chillier and cloudier for many with rain. Upland snow over the Highlands.

On Thursday, a band of showery rain will spread south-eastwards across the UK and it will feel a little chillier over England and Wales in strong westerly winds. However, there should be some brighter spells either side of the band of rain. After a bright but cold start, Friday is likely to see cloud and further rain spreading from the west later in the day. This weekend is likely to remain unsettled. There is the potential for some strong and gusty winds quite widely on Saturday along with squally showers, these perhaps wintry over hills. Strong winds and rain for some on Sunday, with the highest risk in the south and west.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 17 March

Further wet and windy weather. Chilly at times.

Next week is likely to see the unsettled weather continuing across the UK due to deep areas of low pressure approaching from the Atlantic at times.Through the week, bands of rain and showers are likely to continue spreading from west to east across the country.

It is likely to be quite chilly at times, particularly for a few days around the middle part of the week with showers turning wintry at times over hills. Windy at times, too, with a risk of occasional gales in the west and south in particular. There will also be some drier and brighter interludes but these are unlikely to last for long. Overall, an unsettled week with rainfall amounts above the seasonal average.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 31 March

Slowly turning drier and calmer from the south

We still expect to see a gradual change in the weather pattern through the latter part of March. The breezy and damp weather expected through the first half of the month is expected to slowly give way to drier and calmer conditions, thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the south.The timing of this change remains somewhat uncertain but the southern half of the UK should see somewhat drier and calmer conditions developing first.

Towards the end of the month, we should see lengthier drier and calmer periods of weather extending further north across the country. Daytime temperatures are favoured to rise, too, with brighter and warmer days becoming more abundant later in the month. There is a slight chance that high pressure remains further away to the south-west than expected, which would lead to a persistence of wetter and breezier conditions. However, currently we still favour a slow trend to drier and warmer weather.

Next Update

It currently looks as though the old English proverb could be true for this March - 'March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb'. We will take another look to see if this month goes out like a lamb with a quieter and warmer ending.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Met office

10 day trend

Low pressure
Wind and rain
Colder air times

 

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